FogSailing's Account Talk

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This is the top. I just got my aching corn signal.
Of course, I've been loosing sleep not knowing precisely which toe would begin to ache.
What a relief. I now believe the corn on my left toe is closely tied to the Federal Reserve’s expansion of $M1.
I have observed that it begins to throb just a few weeks before my right toe begins throbbing.

When the corn on my right toe throbs that usually marks the top.
Unless of course I put too much pressure on it, in which case it is a false signal and the top is not in.
I will tell you for sure in a few days, but for sure my post will start : As I told you….

It's tough doing all this market analysis...Heck, being a senior is tough work...:laugh::laugh::laugh:

FS
 
FogSailing said:
This is the top. I just got my aching corn signal.
Of course, I've been loosing sleep not knowing precisely which toe would begin to ache.
What a relief. I now believe the corn on my left toe is closely tied to the Federal Reserve’s expansion of $M1.
I have observed that it begins to throb just a few weeks before my right toe begins throbbing.

When the corn on my right toe throbs that usually marks the top.
Unless of course I put too much pressure on it, in which case it is a false signal and the top is not in.
I will tell you for sure in a few days, but for sure my post will start : As I told you….

It's tough doing all this market analysis...Heck, being a senior is tough work...:laugh::laugh::laugh:

FS
Click to expand...

Amazing.

I now all about mental anguish and the stock market but not physical pain used to determine buy or sell tactics. Might want to stay away from the podiatrist if it becomes a successful investment tool. Good luck. :blink:
 
Total earnings down -7.9%
-1.1% lower revenues

If the index reports a decline in earnings for Q1, it will mark the first time the index has seen four consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q4 2008 through Q3 2009.

Mid-Day Report: The Q1 Earnings Season Pattern Remains Intact | InvestorPlace

So, how can that be. I know our household spends as much today as we ever have (with more going to healthcare services and taxes than in the past 5 years, and something tells me those costs are not coming down any time soon). I don't believe the 99% of the people have radically changed their spending and saving habits and since 99% only equals less than half the wealth on the planet, the obvious reason for any decline in GDP or global growth has to be the manipulation of all things financial by the 1%. If nothing else, this speaks to the demise of a strong middle class and the need for something to change to accommodate a wealthier 99%.

FS
 
This is an interesting look at the Yen and Dollar compared to these currencies behavior in the mid 1980's and again last year. If the Yen rises the Dollar falls (resulting in less liquidity in the market and generally not good for SPX). Vice versa when the Yen falls. Just another factor to be considered and just FYI.

View attachment 38045

View attachment 38046

Best to you in the market.

FS
 
Here are quotes from 2 of the TA's I follow:

The Bull: We’re in “Bizarro World” again. Bad news is shrugged off or reinterpreted as “good news”, as you say, market goes higher. Good news is expected and goes higher. This has worked in the past and could continue for some time.
The Bear: Near term outlook offers a post-FOMC break to the 2065/61 gap zone. There is a viable April close in the 2050/40s.. with VIX in the 17-19 zone.

Two smart guys with lots of market experience and diametrically opposed views this week. The rest of the week will be quite interesting.

My current thinking on the state of the markets"

View attachment 38061

FS
 
Glad to see the BOJ do the right thing and not drop rates farther into NIRP. Perhaps, just perhaps, they are coming to their senses and realizing NIRP is a disaster. Next step is for the BOJ and ECB to raise rates back to 0% and get off this crazy NIRP experiment. But that is quite a gap that occurred last night with the USD\JPY at 109 from 111. That should be good for the US markets today...Still think we're headed to 2034 pivot before we see another bounce though...

View attachment 38088

FS
 
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This was posted by a TA I follow and thought it was worth sharing:

"I am declaring here and now, after this big drop that we will hit new highs in this current leg up. I get these poker “TELLS” every so often and the latest GDP report confirmed it for me. the so called manipulation of energy and the like is in anticipation of accelerated growth both here and in China. Got separate report about China confirming my suspicions. Consumer is sitting in the best position going back decades. Business spending slowed significantly in the same time period as the consumer reduced debt and increased savings. The odds on favorite is for a surprise domestic acceleration on all fronts and soon.

The “wild” card is China. If they can’t accelerate their growth then we move in slow motion one way or the other. If they can then all ships ride the tide.

I will be looking to play the long side with short term SPX Calls soon. Depends on tomorrow or at the latest Monday’s action. Hope to see a drop of another 20 SPX points.
Believe once the dust settles over next 2 months we will be on the last but most powerful leg up."

FS Comment: I hope she is right. It could mean that "Sell in May and Go Away" doesn't work this year...We'll have to see how things go once SPX pulls back down to between 2034 and 1960. As an aside, the China CB appears to be doing it's own form of QE so maybe money will flow into their economy and boost economic activity as they transition to with a larger service oriented economy. One final thought. If this bull TA is right, this could be the biggest damage done to bears in a long time. There is a whole bear world out there waiting to short the market to recoup all their losses over the last 2 months. The resurgence of a strong bull market would eat them alive since I think most are expecting May and June to be BIG BIG declines in SPX. I wish I knew the way things would turn but I don't. I'll just try to follow the trend this time and hopefully catch the right wave.

FS
 
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I agree that peak oil is laughable Norm. The oil market stills seems to be moving sideways but to the upside. That makes little sense if supplies are really outpacing demand; not to mention that oil storage is expensive. But, oil still appears to be headed to $50 a barrel on Friday (even with the down day) so obviously I'm not understanding something. Next week will be quite a tell I'm thinking. We're due a pullback but will it turnout to be is a head fake for the bulls or the bears? I was thinking the head fake was for the bears on Thursday and Friday but there is so much negative stuff still mulling around(especially the debt stuff) that I'm rethinking all that. Of course, if the CBs interfere, it doesn't matter what any of us think.

FS
 
If the Fed is pumping dollars into the system, then the dollar drops against other currencies. And the value of items now take more dollars. Cheap dollars means more exports, and more money CONUS rather than OCONUS.

The price of oil is not linked so much, IMO, to the VALUE of the barrel but the number of dollars available to price the barrel.

And nothing really to bounce that against in a video or some other reference. Just an observation from the fox hole.
 
DT: For me the jury is out regarding the linkage between oil and SPX. I think US Markets have used both commodities and currency manipulation to move the markets over the past 6 or so months. The CB intervention has been obnoxious but I have to tell myself that they have a civilization to herd and need to be in the forefront at this time. I am starting to ponder possibilities about how NIRP could be useful if it worked to distribute wealth from the 1% to the masses in some fathomable way, with ZIRP for the 99% (so to speak. However, no idea how such a policy might work in a way that truly benefits the "many over the one" as Spock would say. But since the idea is basically contrary to my thinking I'm pretty sure it's a nothing burger. Still, the concept of achieving an economic balance is a macro issue and will require macro solution (whatever they might be).

FS
 
My GUESS for this month is sideways closing in the 2040-2050 range based on comparing similar wave patterns over the last year. I'm still waiting for the market to pullback to 2030-2040. I think we will have another leg up to 2090 somewhere after the first week. Today is a crawl up and the market may go to 2080 before it turns back again (by Wednesday) but I don't think this is the wave to waste an IFT on since I'd be chasing. Think we end the week down. Reading about the world markets over the weekend, it isn't surprising that oil producing nations had a good month with the rise in oil prices, while Japan took a bath. I expect some aggressive jawboning out the Fed later this week hence the downward pressure on equities. We'll see how it goes.

FS
 
In late April I was open to higher highs because we have had a HUGE expansion in service sector, jobs, labor market, discretionary income, savings, reducing of debt, business reduction in inventory and spending. Earnings have suffered but given the huge offset in domestic economy there was a buffer. The other side of the macro action were China and EU recessionary pressures and a deep correction in their markets causing disruption in energy and exports in US. But given the action of the CB's to keep the machine well oiled I was thinking we could still move up. I no longer think that will happen.

The TA data is now arguing otherwise. (See attached article) Current Point and Figure Counts

My current thinking is some downward action until there is additional consolidation before another rally. So effective tomorrow, 100% F Fund for me.

FS
 
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