FogSailing's Account Talk

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Interesting morning. Started the day down with oil -3% but the markets haven't crashed and appear ready to rally this afternoon. Perhaps on hopes of an agreement at Doha. I am not confident about an agreement but isn't it really about how they want to sell the news that gets attention. Forex is where the action is as the dollar has slid a bit against the Yen and the US markets perked up. Probably heading to G today Wanted to just take off the I Fund stuff so I'd be 80G, 20 F but that's not doable under the IFT rules. I'm too invested in the I Fund right now and while the China news was actually neutral to good, my faith in the markets is suffering, and with the Yen going up I'd expect some negative action in the N225 on Monday.
 
For the past few days I've noticed that the bonds market was moving opposite the stock market. A lot of us were brought up to think that typical behavior occurs when stocks go up, bonds go down and vice versa, but that isn't really the case for the past 20 or so years. For example, over the past 2 months both stocks and bonds have moved in parallel more often than not...but that behavior seems to be changing. Attached is an article that I think discusses this issue reasonably well. Just FYI.

When Do Stock and Bond Prices Move in Opposite Directions? -- The Motley Fool

FS
 
What a mind freak. Oill goes down but trading stays neutral and closes the gap from the initial slide. So, gap closed
if good news is good news
if bad news is good news
if every breath CBs take is good news
if oil goes up market follow
if oil goes down market doesn't follow
maybe nothing can stop markets going up :
hhhhhhhhmmmm

Honestly, none of this makes any financial sense.
I really feel like the Monopoly money people have taken over.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
What a mind freak.....Honestly, none of this makes any financial sense.
I really feel like the Monopoly money people have taken over.
FS
Click to expand...

I'm not surprised by the rally...The waves dictated the need for one more wave higher, and thanks to the dumb day traders shorting the market Sunday night on the oil news it just provided more of a springboard for short covering today for this final wave 5. Today is also the final day of a short window in the middle of the lunar red phase where you can get some panic short covering and a blow-off top.

I put my sell order in Saturday morning, and though I think the closing top could likely come tomorrow, and the price peak make come just after the Fed announcement Wednesday, I'm not going to be greedy and I'll go ahead and let my IFT ride and get back to the F fund today. EFA may yet close that gap at 59.52 but I'll leave that on the table for those more brave than me.

I just hope Northy's bullish scenario doesn't pan out (I don't think so, I think the move down to 1500 or lower is still in the cards and I won't change my mind unless the S&P breaks above 2116)...and if the market is breaking out by May 1st I can always get back in then...May would be a C fund month in my seasonal system...
https://northmantrader.com/2016/04/16/the-big-move/

Meanwhile, I want no surprises today, including an unexplained low settlement price on the I fund today...a nice steady ramp into the close would be sweet!
Have to admit though, I'm surprised that EFA is up at all with the Nikkei down 3.4% in reaction to the earthquake...I thought Japan was the biggest component of the I fund.
 
If Birchtree was here, he'd tell you to just keep buying. :wink:


FogSailing said:
What a mind freak. Oill goes down but trading stays neutral and closes the gap from the initial slide. So, gap closed
if good news is good news
if bad news is good news
if every breath CBs take is good news
if oil goes up market follow
if oil goes down market doesn't follow
maybe nothing can stop markets going up :
hhhhhhhhmmmm

Honestly, none of this makes any financial sense.
I really feel like the Monopoly money people have taken over.

FS
Click to expand...
 
Hi TS. I concur with your thinking on the wave count and EW definitely indicated another wave up. My thinking on Friday was that the Doha meeting was going to be a bust and on that point I was correct. I thought the news would control today's action. That was clearly wrong. However, the oil price recovery overnight was a bit of a surprise to me. Makes me wonder if CBs decided to sell gold, or whether we will be seeing a massive maintenance shut down for refineries, or this is just another attack on the shale industry. Probably all of the above. Bears insist this wave is corrective and I believe we are still in a bear market. So until we break HH's (which is getting closer) I'm siding on the conservative side. All the best today TS.

FS
 
The more I watch the absolute insanity of this market the more Bullish I become. Right? I've watched this thing squeeze all the money out of the shorts and just when they have hope that the market has turned they get squeezed again (Think Today). So what if the fed raises rates or we have a BREXIT....under current rules it's all bullish. Right? The fact that the Fed downgraded GDP to .1% in the 1st quarter, corporate earnings fall again for the 4th times in the last five quarters, we've created unparalleled global debt, etc. etc. etc. makes me more bullish? Right?

So, what am I concerned about? If the CB's want me to make money I should be happy. Right? After all, being such an insider (sarcasm), it wouldn't be cricket of me to say that they've used all their bullets except for jawboning, bond sales (at least we haven't adopted NIRP YET), and printing currency? Maybe I (we) should just be happy that they are doing their best to keep everything floating. When this trend ends, it's going be a doozy. Talk about hangovers. I just hope we don't all die of the overdose. Now I'm going to tune into my new favorite program "Doomsday Preppers":D:D

That's my rant for this week.....

FS
 
Tsunami said:
Meanwhile, I want no surprises today, including an unexplained low settlement price on the I fund today...a nice steady ramp into the close would be sweet!
Click to expand...

So, I got half my wish...EFA closed up 0.86%...but then the I fund share price only goes up 0.33%?!!! ;swear

Oh well, I exceeded my expectations for the trade overall, can't complain, much...
 
I think I finally figured out this market. :smile: The new theory about the Fed invalidating OEW, TA, Fundamentals, Gann, Cycle Theory, Volume Studies, Pattern Recognition, etc, etc, etc. is that everything was invalidated on the way up and will continue to be invalidated on the way on the down. I have now found proof to back up my theory..:D:D:D

“If I had a world of my own,
everything would be nonsense.
Nothing would be what it is
because everything would be what it isn’t.
And contrary-wise what it is it wouldn’t be,
and what it wouldn’t be, it would.
You see?”

Alice in Wonderland
 
FogSailing said:
I think I finally figured out this market. :smile: The new theory about the Fed invalidating OEW, TA, Fundamentals, Gann, Cycle Theory, Volume Studies, Pattern Recognition, etc, etc, etc. is that everything was invalidated on the way up and will continue to be invalidated on the way on the down. I have now found proof to back up my theory..:D:D:D

“If I had a world of my own,
everything would be nonsense.
Nothing would be what it is
because everything would be what it isn’t.
And contrary-wise what it is it wouldn’t be,
and what it wouldn’t be, it would.
You see?”

Alice in Wonderland
Click to expand...


You're entirely bonkers. But I'll tell you a secret, all the best people are. :cheesy:
 
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