FogSailing's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

Tricky juncture on Monday, the next 20- 30 points is anybody’s guess.

In the bear corner:
Weekend newsflow (Saudi oil minister change, China import/export data)
Symmetry with the initial decline in Major A
Post NFP week weakness
Short term overbought charts with lower highs
Top of the down channel test

In the bull corner:
Successful test of 50 dma
Turning up from oversold on the daily
The decline from 2111 to 2039 already looks deep enough for a potential counter trend rally to begin – looking at the last two tops one is to be expected soon
Falling dollar, rising yen

The BOJ post minutes sometime tonight which I think will drive markets tomorrow as well as the Saudi oil minister change. If the new guys says something like "full speed ahead" then oil prices will tank before hitting $50. We’ll know with the futures tonight and I suspect a lot depends on how oil moves. If the usual opex ramp is to occur, it would make sense for the market to fall back this week to make room. Question is does it rally before a pullback or pullback before a rally?

FS

 

[tom4jean]

Here is an interesting timing indicator write up on this blog you might find interesting, I did;

http://investingforaliving.us/2016/05/03/using-economic-indicators-to-time-the-market/

tom

 

[Cactus]

With it's long term outlook and limited number of moves, this looks like an interesting alternative to buy-N-hold. You could simply check in on the Unemployment rate once a month, compute a new 12 month MA and see where you stand. That's sort of the same amount of involvement as the LMBF system except you are looking longer term with hopefully fewer IFTs. :cheesy:

The only question I have is how does this system work with the jobless numbers being revised for previous months and all? Back testing with historical data is one thing, using it real time is another. I guess the only way to find out is to try it out ourselves.

 

[FogSailing]

Hi T4J. Good article. Thanks.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I'm not an economist and I'm certain there is another completely valid viewpoint to be shown here....but I still find this article informative. I keep asking what the event will be that takes this market lower and when that might happen.

Just FYI: Grand Central: A Letter to Stingy American Consumers - Real Time Economics - WSJ

FS

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Yes...what will the trigger be? Below that article there were short takes on financial and economic news. Noticed there are some talk with Greec again, and more European QE going through September with extra/higher buys in May and June to offset the market Summer low periods. Interesting. That should be good for the I Fund....

Best wishes on Your Investments!!!!!!! :smile:

 

[FogSailing]

Well according to David Larew today is Weird Wollie Wednesday. If today's action is up, options expiration next Friday should be down and vice versa (according to the general rule). So, it's nice to see futures up this morning with a strengthening dollar and oil. Hope it stays that way today and we make back yesterdays pullback (which pulled back further than I thought it would). According to David, this day belongs to the big money so we'll see whether portfolios are manipulated. Watch the volume today. Market breadth is strong and the moving averages appear to be consolidating and people are buying the highs so we could see a nice pop up today. Fingers crossed...cause we don't run the algos...

Best to all in your investing.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Well...so much for a rocketship up today...looks like it's either going to be choppy or some level of decline...Gold is up and equities are down. Hope we don't retrace lower than 2040 if we pullback. The good news is that oil and the dollar still look good. Hoping that's the way it stays.

FS

 

[jkenjohnson]

Well according to David Larew today is Weird Wollie Wednesday. If today's action is up, options expiration next Friday should be down and vice versa (according to the general rule). So, it's nice to see futures up this morning with a strengthening dollar and oil. Hope it stays that way today and we make back yesterdays pullback (which pulled back further than I thought it would). According to David, this day belongs to the big money so we'll see whether portfolios are manipulated. Watch the volume today. Market breadth is strong and the moving averages appear to be consolidating and people are buying the highs so we could see a nice pop up today. Fingers crossed...cause we don't run the algos...

Best to all in your investing.
FS

We're going sideways to down today because I'm in the market.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

I thought today was Thursday? Damn it...............:blink:

Well according to David Larew today is Weird Wollie Wednesday. If today's action is up, options expiration next Friday should be down and vice versa (according to the general rule). So, it's nice to see futures up this morning with a strengthening dollar and oil. Hope it stays that way today and we make back yesterdays pullback (which pulled back further than I thought it would). According to David, this day belongs to the big money so we'll see whether portfolios are manipulated. Watch the volume today. Market breadth is strong and the moving averages appear to be consolidating and people are buying the highs so we could see a nice pop up today. Fingers crossed...cause we don't run the algos...

Best to all in your investing.

FS

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

This answers the mystery in the Hangman thread, Fog isn't on the wrong page... he's an earth-rotation behind everyone :laugh:

I thought today was Thursday? Damn it...............:blink:

 

[FogSailing]

You're right K. It just hit me that this new medication the doctor gave me a week ago is making me very "Foggy". Appreciate it. Time to quit this stuff. My wife told me the same thing yesterday but I just blew it off...but I don't think so...

Hopefully, I'll recover from this fog quickly..

FS

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

maybe we are just all talking to you from the future :blink:

 

[FogSailing]

In that case, I look forward to your advice on how to play the market..:laugh:

Sent 2 days ago via AZ Internet..

FS

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

In that case, I look forward to your advice on how to play the market..:laugh:

Sent 2 days ago via AZ Internet..

FS

That explains it!

 

[FogSailing]

Good article. I don't support a lot of things about Zero Hedge because of the negativity of the site on so many issues, but I do find that his site brings a lot of information you can't find elsewhere to the forefront and I think this article is worth the read.

Stop Blaming Consumers, They Can't Help It! | Zero Hedge

FS

 

[ravensfan]

Well...so much for a rocketship up today...looks like it's either going to be choppy or some level of decline...Gold is up and equities are down. Hope we don't retrace lower than 2040 if we pullback. The good news is that oil and the dollar still look good. Hoping that's the way it stays.

FS

I'm hoping we pullback to 2030 before we retest the April high. If so, I'm thinking of getting in. If we take out the April high first I'm staying on the sidelines...Just an FYI, the 10 day moving average is below the 20 day moving average and that ain't good...

 

[FogSailing]

If the indicators hold, looks like a pop up next week going into OPEX...we'll see...hopefully there is some turnaround today but oil is likely the determining factor today and increased Iranian production has oil down at this time.

View attachment 38230

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Here's how I count the wave action going into Monday:

Spx counts from 1810:
A) 1810-1931
B) triangle that finished at 1931
C.1 1931-2009
C.2 2009-1969
C3. 1969-2111
C4. 2111-2040
C5. (0-3) 2040-2085
C5.4 triangle
C5.5 to start next week and make a new high above 2111 but not to exceed 2133.

If the count is right and it plays out this way this could finally mark the end of primary B; and C wave will start, targeting 1730 as the end of c1.

Of course, I thought we were falling off the cliff when we were at 1810 and the market sort of told me "Not so much".

Best to you in your investing.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Hoping that today stays up. Would like to get back the 1.4% the market took last Thursday and Friday....so I'll be keeping a eye on two periods today 11am and 3pm. I hope that with oil up and the dollar up that we coast into the afternoon...fingers crossed.

FS