FireWeatherMet Account Talk

[FireWeatherMet]

Hmmm....Maybe my 2nd IFT will be into the -F- fund.:worried:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Mass France Terrorist attack changes things a bit.

Either it will accelerate further downslide of stocks. or, as is the case when the US military industrial machine gets going, it makes stocks shoot upward.
All will depend on how the geopolitical stuff plays out...so basically my thoughts are if the market gives a strong signal one way or the other, that's where my IFT will go.
Either F or a combo of C/S/I.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Tough choice today, not getting a clear feel.

Feel that the medium term (next few weeks) will be down. That supports going in -F-.

Short term, we're due for at least a DCB. But when do you go in for that (ie trying to catch a falling knife).

Doing OK so far this month. Sometimes the best move in that case is the one you don't make.
Will think about it some more, but leaning on staying put for today.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

A nice post from Tom and possible breakout in the Dow Transports.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talk-s-account-talk/7701-market-outlook.html

Even though I won't fight the Fed next month, when rates likely to rise, I won't fight a breakout above the 200 day EMA and positive Holiday Bias where ":irrational exuberance" can continue the rally. We'll see, but my system calls for me to be in stocks most of the time, exiting briefly at new highs. So if we have another 1-2% to go upward in the next 1-2 weeks then I don't want to stay out of my system any longer.

Going in fully...50/50 split between S and I. Would be nice to stay invested into early Dec and reap some profits if we get near new highs (or higher).

 

[WorkFE]

FMW,
Check the tracker (rearview mirror) I see you.

 

[WorkFE]

Now if I can just slide Boricua out of the way I will be able to shake FWM's hand.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Congrats on a great year WorkFE. :smile:

Am a bit concerned here though...:worried:
TSP Talk - Sentiment Survey

 

[WorkFE]

A bit early but so far so good. looks like we will give a good bit back today. Gotta pay the pit boss.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

I don't know about anyone else, but the latest Sentiment Result has gotten me VERY nervous.:worried:

Buy 65% Sell 21%

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[alevin]

You'd be right to be nervous about the sp500, pretty sure it still has some drop headed its way.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

3 moderate to big up days in a row....usually (not always) a good place to sell and buy back in a few days.

Will lock in last 3 days...go to G. Might buy back in after a few days.

There is risk of missing remainder of any Santa Rally...so we'll see. At times like this, when I'm thinking of getting out after a good run, and end up waiting, I usually end up regretting it.

 

[userque]

3 moderate to big up days in a row....usually (not always) a good place to sell and buy back in a few days.

Will lock in last 3 days...go to G. Might buy back in after a few days.

There is risk of missing remainder of any Santa Rally...so we'll see. At times like this, when I'm thinking of getting out after a good run, and end up waiting, I usually end up regretting it.

Got a sell signal on my system as well.

 

[Cactus]

I don't know about anyone else, but the latest Sentiment Result has gotten me VERY nervous.:worried:

Buy 65% Sell 21%

I think Tom has said in the past that the sentiment survey is not very accurate this time of year because seasonality and peoples opinions are so strongly positive. Just something to consider.

 

[userque]

Got a sell signal on my system as well.

Got a buy signal now. In 100% C-Fund.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Got a buy signal now. In 100% C-Fund.

Wow. Just curious...how did that happen?
A Sell signal after a few big days, followed by one slightly down day leading to a buy?

Any specific reason for the buy trigger you can identify?

 

[userque]

Wow. Just curious...how did that happen?
A Sell signal after a few big days, followed by one slightly down day leading to a buy?

Any specific reason for the buy trigger you can identify?

The system looks at patterns. Some patterns offer higher probabilities than others. Some patterns are more neutral and uncertain. It is these patterns that lead to 'whipsaws.'

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Wow. Just curious...how did that happen?
A Sell signal after a few big days, followed by one slightly down day leading to a buy?

Any specific reason for the buy trigger you can identify?

The system looks at patterns. Some patterns offer higher probabilities than others. Some patterns are more neutral and uncertain. It is these patterns that lead to 'whipsaws.'

Thanks Userque...but I think we all know that.
I was wondering if you knew your system well enough to identify the specific pattern that took it from a sell to buy in one day.

 

[userque]

Thanks Userque...but I think we all know that.
I was wondering if you knew your system well enough to identify the specific pattern that took it from a sell to buy in one day.

My bad. I have no way of knowing, generally, what folks do and don't know. There's a broad spectrum of knowledge here from novice to expert. The spectrum is likely wider with machine learning trading as not many are discussing such things here.

The system does not label patterns in a way one could say, "yes, yesterday matched pattern #487." The system looks at (so far) ~60 price/volume/date metrics. For example, percentage change for: O,H,L,C,O2, H2,L2,C2, etc. Also 5EMA crossover, ..., etc. Also New 52 week highs, ... etc. Also Advancers/Unchanged/Decliners, etc. Matching month?, etc. Etc.

It tries combinations of one or more metrics, and matches recent metrics to historical metrics--back-testing to see how well each combination forecasts; and finally settling on the 'best' combination. I simplified my earlier discussion by referring to 'all-this' as 'a-pattern.'

So there are really two questions you really mean to ask, imo: What metrics did the system match to which day(s) in the past?

I could've answered that question before I overrode that data.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Went in 50 S and 50 I.

System said I should have been in yesterday...don't like the overly bullish sentiment...but per Tom's mention of bull flag on S&P will join in.
Hoping (not the best strategy) that S fund follows the C, and with the I fund, sometimes part of a days gain missed (today) can show up on the next day.

 

[offroad]

just starting to watch what FWM is doing. Has been a long term interest.