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FireWeatherMet Account Talk
- Thread starter FireWeatherMet
- Start date
Despite yesterday, still feeling good about sitting in the F-fund this month.:smile:
As for a possible "bottom" you might not like what the charts tell you...using the simple leg 1 off Dead Cat Bounce method.
View attachment 35302
I hope this dead cat only has two legs.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Some interesting charting regarding how long to stay away from stocks and when to get back in.
Comparing 2015 To Past Market Bottoms | Stock Market Blog - Financial Blog - Investment Blog - Technical Analysis Blog
Also good video on similar issue:
[video=youtube;BMUR918pgts]https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=648&v=BMUR918pgts[/video]
Comparing 2015 To Past Market Bottoms | Stock Market Blog - Financial Blog - Investment Blog - Technical Analysis Blog
Also good video on similar issue:
[video=youtube;BMUR918pgts]https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=648&v=BMUR918pgts[/video]
O
OBXTrader
Guest
For some reason I listened to CNBC yesterday. The fund managers still encouraged their investors to buy this dip. Markets do seem to close off the lows of the day, so people listen. If it goes lower each day, you can buy the dip at even better prices. Guess everyone thinks they are catching the bottom. Someone will get it right and be a genius.
WorkFE
Well-known member
Without being a meanie, whatever the opposite of genius is, that's what I don't want to be.
FAB1
Well-known member
You left off
Halliburton is laying off
Caterpillar is laying off
Russia military build-up in Syria
Japan Nikkei down hard 4-5 days
4th "blood moon" occurs next week
Entrails of a goat turned blue.:notrust:
I KNOW what Im gonna do.
BUY Cfund! :nuts:
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
He-he...I don't consider myself an ultimate authority on global macro-economics but I do know that the market does not want to go up much anymore and is looking for reasons to sell off and go down. Those macro reasons are:
1) China Slowdown...spreading to emerging markets.
2) Oil Price falling.
and now new ones...
3) Refugee crisis causing rift in Euro-zone.
4) German automaker scandal...Volkswagen...now reports of maybe BMW.
5) Increasing threat of Gov't Shutdown.
So against these headwinds its difficult to see the market do anything...except sell-off. Sure there will be a string of 2-3 up-days every once in a while...but the bad days should outnumber the good until most of the above issues go away.
And its not so much these issues that are the main cause of our current correction IMHO. Its the fact that we have not had a correction in so long...that the market was using this as an excuse to sell off, and that in a normal cycle if we had a correction say last year, maybe we would have only gone down 4% in this current situation instead of 12-15%.
You left off
Halliburton is laying off
Caterpillar is laying off
Russia military build-up in Syria
Japan Nikkei down hard 4-5 days
4th "blood moon" occurs next week
Entrails of a goat turned blue.:notrust:
I KNOW what Im gonna do.
BUY Cfund! :nuts:
Halliburton is in the S&P (C Fund). Why not buy F-fund???
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Toying with using 2nd IFT to BRIEFLY move back into equities. Could be another 1-2 days uptrend.
Not sure though...will make decision next few minutes.
Not sure though...will make decision next few minutes.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Going in 50% S and 50% I COB today.
See Tom's Market Commentary on short term gaps on S and I funds that might lead to short term positive gain.
Nervous because I'm breaking from long term trend, but can bail without fail given a new set of IFT's in a few days.
See Tom's Market Commentary on short term gaps on S and I funds that might lead to short term positive gain.
Nervous because I'm breaking from long term trend, but can bail without fail given a new set of IFT's in a few days.
FAB1
Well-known member
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Hmmm...must have hit wrong Tracker button...did 50 S and 50 I on my real .gov account...will see if Tom is around and can possibly fix.
Thanks for catching that!
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Thanks Amoeba,
There is a fine line between courageous and greedy stupidity, and I fear I may find myself on the wrong side of it come Monday morning.
Typically when we have bounce backs after a few down days, there is at least 1 or more days of follow through. So as stocks rose this morning I was banking on equities continuing to rise thru the day, leading to some dumb money following thru Mon-Tue next week.
So with one IFT left and only 3 full trading days left to use it, I thought it was a perfect opportunity. Well, sentiment changed in a hurry during the afternoon and stocks dropped fast. We'll see what Monday brings...but if we go down sharply in the morning I'll likely exit and just accept a losing day as a lessons learned. If we're up...I might cash in my chips anyway and not get too greedy.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Yes, greed and stupidity will wipe away about 2 months of hard work. Should have stayed the course in the F and wait for lower lows.
Not sure if I'll move back into G today and limit losses...or stick it out becasue today would be 7 of 8 down days...and a quick snap back often occurs.
Leaning towards the former...based on a good weekly chart analisis from Tom, regarding the bear flag and possible lows in the lower 1800's. I had targetted upper 1700's previously. Either one would be a better place to step back in.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Decided to cut losses and bail into G.
Could see a snap back tomorrow with today's free-fall...or could see further drop.
Staying in would be like a poker player losing a decent chunk of winnings, but instead of walking away with most of your profit intact...staying at the poker table to recoup the loss of the latest hand.
I want to get back to strategic investing...and away from the gambling table.
Could see a snap back tomorrow with today's free-fall...or could see further drop.
Staying in would be like a poker player losing a decent chunk of winnings, but instead of walking away with most of your profit intact...staying at the poker table to recoup the loss of the latest hand.
I want to get back to strategic investing...and away from the gambling table.
FAB1
Well-known member
Eh, what? Here now, my good Man!
Sounds like Hate Speech
Dem's fightin' words pardner!!
Thou art a heretic!
Witch!! Witch!!
The progressively devolving conversation facing those who refuse to invest.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
September Monthly Wrap Up
Overall for September, my account was down -2.03%
The tracker seems to be having issues so can't see my monthly ranking now. Compared to the other funds for the month, I could lie to myself and say I had another good month because I beat all 3 stock funds again...but that would be lying to myself.
Other funds for the month: C fund -2.47%.....S fund -4.80%.....I fund -5.02%.....F fund +0.75%
The more important score...for the year...I was still up +6.36%.
That was #47 on the Tracker which is in at about the top 4% of the Tracker.
Was #26 for the YTD last month so I had a bad month....because I broke away from my system for 1 day.
If I had stayed in the F fund for the last 3 days of the month instead of jumping in stocks one day for a 2.5% loss...I would now be up near 9.2% for the year and in 21st place.
The other funds for the year: C fund -5.24%.....S fund -5.98%.....I fund -4.33%.....F fund -1.44%
Again, I can try patting myself on the back for being 10-12% above the stock indices and near 5% above the best fund (F) but that would be bull$h!t.
I start this month in the G fund...and plan to stay disciplined and focused...wait until a lower low, and a better sign of a bottom according to the charts to move into stocks.
Since I can only move into stocks one time, I may move into equities in 2 steps...one when we start approaching chart predicted bottoms and the 2nd half the day we get a big snap back. Of course, if we've already bottomed, then I will have to reconsider....we'll see.
Still upset at myself for being selfish and stupid, going in against my best judgment COB last Friday, only to catch the worst day of the month on Monday where indices were down 2-3%.
So as a painful reminder to my greed induced stupidity which made me break discipline from my system...I go back to our most recent Black Monday and dedicate this song TO MYSELF!
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