FireWeatherMet Account Talk

Nice timing yesterday!

Your timing has been spot on this summer. Nice going!

Thanks. I guess even a broken clock is right twice a day.:smile: But there is a lot of volatility out there which means we could get big whipsaw's upward as well as downward (today had both and who knows where it will close).

Bottom line from Fed minutes is that the chance of a fed hike went down slightly...from extremely likely to very likely. Channel/triangle pattern likely to continue, but not sure if the top and bottom levels won't be reset downward a bit. We will definitely be back in a situation where "bad economic news" is short term good news for the markets.
 
A little "Anxiety" today??

Investor-Cycle.png
 
I'm seeing a shift to "Denial" today. 2 days ago when the VIX was up like 7%, a CNBC stock pimp said "well, that doesn't mean much. the aver all number is still small".
That was a red flag to me...Denial.
VIX flatness at low numbers is a classic market top indicator...and every correction starts with 7% up days on the VIX that continue for a few days in a row.

A lot of people on the forum are assuming a strong pop back up early next week. I dunno, maybe a 1-2 day deadcat bounce. Barring some unforeseen news, I don't see much more hope beyond that in the short term.
A sharp CNBC guest says that there's danger we are in a commodity bubble that's starting to burst, and that this is how bubbles form and burst...when no one is initially talking about them.

CNBC hosts are asking each other "where do you hide??...there's no place to hide". That takes us past the denial phase and approaching "fear".

Market in freefall now as S&P is now fast approaching zero for the year. These years, where stocks finish flat to slightly negative for the year occur once every few years. Those are years when the F-Fund is the best fund on the tracker with usually a 4-8% annual gain.

If I had another IFT, I would be throwing 100% into the F fund and expect to stay there for a few weeks.
A little "Anxiety" today??

Investor-Cycle.png
 
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We all hear so much it's hard to decide which way to go in or out. But for now I'm stay n put until I see more and more people running for the woods....
 
The market has put in so many oversold "V" bottoms we have become accustomed to bounce back and leader board is proof of that. However, I fell prey to this scenario and sold last October which as I recall was the last time we had real sustained decline.

I'm seeing a shift to "Denial" today. 2 days ago when the VIX was up like 7%, a CNBC stock pimp said "well, that doesn't mean much. the aver all number is still small".
That was a red flag to me...Denial.
VIX flatness at low numbers is a classic market top indicator...and every correction starts with 7% up days on the VIX that continue for a few days in a row.

A lot of people on the forum are assuming a strong pop back up early next week. I dunno, maybe a 1-2 day deadcat bounce. Barring some unforeseen news, I don't see much more hope beyond that in the short term.
A sharp CNBC guest says that there's danger we are in a commodity bubble that's starting to burst, and that this is how bubbles form and burst...when no one is initially talking about them.

CNBC hosts are asking each other "where do you hide??...there's no place to hide". That takes us past the denial phase and approaching "fear".

Market in freefall now as S&P is now fast approaching zero for the year. These years, where stocks finish flat to slightly negative for the year occur once every few years. Those are years when the F-Fund is the best fund on the tracker with usually a 4-8% annual gain.

If I had another IFT, I would be throwing 100% into the F fund and expect to stay there for a few weeks.
 
The market has put in so many oversold "V" bottoms we have become accustomed to bounce back and leader board is proof of that. However, I fell prey to this scenario and sold last October which as I recall was the last time we had real sustained decline.

Yes but this is much different than last October IMHO, where Asian and European stocks were starting to soar.
Today Asia, especially China is crashing. Europe is correcting. Oil is falling. Fed rate hike threat looms soon.

We all hear so much it's hard to decide which way to go in or out. But for now I'm stay n put until I see more and more people running for the woods....

If you don't mind, some unsolicited advice since you came to this thread.
You have 2 IFT's, right? If I had 2 IFT's I would go right into the F fund ASAP, or maybe wait for the 1-2 day DC bounce to try get back some table scraps of what I lost.

Then wait for the 2nd shoe...this is global more than just US/Fed hike issue. Make good profits in the F und...then 1-2 days after you drop to a lower low, use IFT 2 to go back into stocks.

Just what I would do if had 2 IFT's.
But then again, I've been wrong before...
 
Thanks for the advice I really appreciate and value your thoughts. Good look n out Holmes... I read your thread on a regular
 
Main reason for me pulling out a few days ago was historical data...we were in one of the longest stretches w/o a "normal" 10% correction in history.
Only 3 other times did this happen.

From a really good article (link below) the day I made my move, shows the historic longest stretches of days w/o a 10% correction...and what happens at the end of each one of them.
"Clearly, history suggests the risk-reward of staying fully invested in the stock market this late in a period of tranquility is dangerous, especially given the high current valuations as measured by the market price divided by average trailing 10-year earnings, known as a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, or CAPE."


Take note of the total market loss at the end of each one of these periods. Take note of how long it takes to get back to even. Get used to loving the -F- fund for the next few months.
There is the old adage I live by "Those who fail to heed the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them".

Here Are the Ominous Signs a Crushing Stock Market Correction Looms - TheStreet

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Seems my biggest moves on the Tracker are not in stocks, but rather in safety, watching everyone above me come crashing down past me.
Reminds me of a song...which I will dedicate (below) to the rest of the top 25 on the Tracker that are above me and still in stocks.:smile:

 
There are a few in front exposed that will cause some movement. I have a couple behind me in the F that will run past me as well.
 
FWM
i did not pull the trigger,it still looked like bad news. I may wait till the first of the week to see how things pan out before I make a move out. Do you still see that scenario you suggested work n out?
 
FWM
i did not pull the trigger,it still looked like bad news. I may wait till the first of the week to see how things pan out before I make a move out. Do you still see that scenario you suggested work n out?

IMHO

Risky move. Get out. DC bounces tend to be 2 days...so on the first positive morning u can try in. But on the 2nd day....whether its up or down, get out. Don't want to ride the next leg down.
A safer winning move would be to go into the F fund and stay there for the rest of the month and maybe into September.
 
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