fabijo's account talk

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Don Harrold:



Hello,

Do not misunderstand me. I know that a move down of 777 points is a horror show for the Dow. I fully appreciate 9% in one day for the Nasdaq. And, the single greatest combined one-day plunge for all the major US markets is hard to find positive. Those facts, aside, ask these questions:

Where was the panic when the market ran to 14,000? Where was the outrage when the commodity "bulls" were running wild? Where was the SEC, Treasury Department, federal reserve, and, government while all this (as we now refer to it) "toxic" mortgage paper was being floated in the first place?

The answers are: Non-existant, nowhere to be found, and, asleep at the wheel. (And for all you partisans out there, get off it. Stop the blaming of Bush, Bernanke, and, Paulson. They were not in office when this stuff started.)

The recent emotional hystrionics that suggest we are about to head into the next "Great Depression," then, seem a bit out of line with the facts. I mean, how could we be heading for a "Great Depression" when it was...

...JUST EARLIER THIS MONTH...

That Larry Kudlow declared "Goldilocks" was back? Didn't Jim Cramer just tell us that he was "sticking his neck out" that the "lows of July" would not be hit EVER AGAIN? Didn't Erin Burnett tell us that the US economy was "Economic Nirvana" last year?

Didn't Hank Paulson tell us that there was "no problem" with the US economy earlier this year in his testimony before congress? Didn't he say that all those new and "sweeping" powers he requested would be unnecessary, unused, and, underwhelming in actual scope?

Right.

But, I told you this would happen. For PETE'S SAKE, I did a video called, "THE GREAT CRASH OF 2007" where I laid out this very scenario we find ourselves in. (Watch that video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKBM8Q_w0wg )

That was back when I was a nut. You know, a "conspiracy theorist". Easy to laugh at, and, easier to dismiss.

So, now, Jim Cramer (et al) have co-opted my word, "Depression". That's what'll happen when all the bullish bullshit you spun proved to be, well, you know...

The bulls of yesterday are the bears of today. But, did their advice profit you much last time they forgot to take their Zoloft? No. So, why do you think they will be right this time?

There is downside ahead. Okay, no kidding. We've not seen "the bottom" yet. Got it. But, folks we are down 4,000 points in a year.

I'm telling you that this sudden panic and fear from the likes of Jim Cramer (et al) portends we are closer to "A" bottom than THE top.

Get read to buy some stocks. I'm doing my best in my Gold Service to lead the way.
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This is an interesting view of the Great Depression and the gold standard.

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2005/12/the_gold_standa.html

The gold standard and the Great Depression

How the gold standard contributed to the Great Depression.

There always seem to be voices raising the possibility that a return to a monetary gold standard could solve all our problems. Among those championing this meme this week were Chris Mayer at Daily Reckoning, Robert Blumen at Mises Economics Blog, and some of my fellow blogjammers.

Under a pure gold standard, the government would stand ready to trade dollars for gold at a fixed rate. Under such a monetary rule, it seems the dollar is "as good as gold."

Except that it really isn't-- the dollar is only as good as the government's credibility to stick with the standard. If a government can go on a gold standard, it can go off, and historically countries have done exactly that all the time. The fact that speculators know this means that any currency adhering to a gold standard (or, in more modern times, a fixed exchange rate) may be subject to a speculative attack.

...
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With all my loads of cash, I'd like to receive the full FDIC insurance on my $50 million.

http://www.cdars.com/index.php

CDARS® is the Certificate of Deposit Account Registry Service®. And it's the most convenient way to enjoy full FDIC insurance on deposits of up to $50 million. With CDARS, you sign one agreement with a participating local bank or other financial institution of your choice, earn one interest rate, and receive one regular statement. It's that easy.
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Gold is not just jewelery anymore. Making gold the basis of currency in this market, where gold is the best material for many industrial uses will force companies to attempt to move away from gold. Gold is almost 100% non-toxic (it's used as a tony decoration on luxuary foods) doesn't pollute water, great heat and electrical conductor, etc etc. It would be worse than the attempt in Europe to ban all uses of lead - at least with those we could ask for some execeptions. As it is, copper is seen as a form of currency to some extent, and we have people stealing copper wire and water pipes, and undoing entire telecommunications and drinking water systems, and a large amount of illeagal trade in electronics waste leads to highly toxic and dangerous gold, silver and other precious metal extraction.
 
One of my NYC friends, who is a public school teacher had off today (for the holidays) and spent it at an outlet mall. She says it was crowded. Good sign for the economy??? :confused:
 
fabijo said:
One of my NYC friends, who is a public school teacher had off today (for the holidays) and spent it at an outlet mall. She says it was crowded. Good sign for the economy??? :confused:
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Hard to say!

Consumer Confidence is what I'm expecting to blow the Economy to pieces. The rush to the stores right now probably reflects getting things while you can way more than a good sign of things to come.

The longer "this Deal" stalls - the more likely the general population is going to see (and feel) the sting of reality. If that happens then savings will dominate everything and the Thanksgiving/Christmas Season will sink everything as spending disappears.

So far the sting has been avoided by the general population.
 
I have a couple of jewelry cases in a variety mall. Last month 7/16 to 8/15 was the best month I've had all year. The store has been doing a brisk business this month also. I'm not seeing a loss of confidence around here.
 
I'm partial to rubies. I have three princess cuts in my wedding band along with two diamonds and my wife wears a .96 pigeon blood ruby as her engagement ring. I bought this jewel many years ago and have never seen one of comparable quality in any jewelry store. I had the ring designed and it has two vvs2 type quality diamonds that surround it. She has two very nice matching ruby earrings that are very nicely cut. So much for beauty.
 
Birchtree said:
I'm partial to rubies. I have three princess cuts in my wedding band along with two diamonds and my wife wears a .96 pigeon blood ruby as her engagement ring. I bought this jewel many years ago and have never seen one of comparable quality in any jewelry store. I had the ring designed and it has two vvs2 type quality diamonds that surround it. She has two very nice matching ruby earrings that are very nicely cut. So much for beauty.
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Keep a good current appraisal on the rubies. If they are as nice as you say. I can't buy a decent ruby anymore.
 
Birchtree said:
I'm partial to rubies. I have three princess cuts in my wedding band along with two diamonds and my wife wears a .96 pigeon blood ruby as her engagement ring. I bought this jewel many years ago and have never seen one of comparable quality in any jewelry store. I had the ring designed and it has two vvs2 type quality diamonds that surround it. She has two very nice matching ruby earrings that are very nicely cut. So much for beauty.
Click to expand...

I started collecting over 30 years ago. Can't find too much quality anything these days without spending a fortune. I have several ruby's,some set in jewelry and some not. I like the rare and exotoic(sp). Ones that most people have never heard of and are not sold in jewelry stores. I used to joke, that if nothing else, I could always trade them for food, not too funny anymore.
 
I bought my wife a garnet bracelet that somewhat matches the ruby ring until you get in the sunlight and the garnets turn brown. I could never afford a quality ruby bracelet unless they were all lab grown pinks and that just wouldn't do. I bought her two very nice pearls for her ears and now I'm commited to a necklace to match - that'll cost a small car.
 
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