fabijo's account talk

[fabijo]

All I gotta say is that according to this chart, it is not the price of oil that has been going up for years, but the value of the dollar doing down. Look at the disconnect that happened in the 70's. That was when we got rid of the gold standard for our dollar:

 

[Mr recognizer]

Wow. I've been out of the loop for a while now. School, work, and rooting for Ron Paul have been occupying all my time. Well, it looks like we finally broke well below the support line I've been touting. It also looks like we may have a crossover of the 75 day EMA and the 180 day EMA. That's my monkey indicator of long term trends. The last time we crossed the 75 day EMA below the 180 day EMA was in November of 2000. The 75 day EMA did not get back above the 180 day EMA until June 2003. It's been above the 180 since then.... until now. It is finally back below the 180. When that happens, my monkey's rule is to switch into fast mode by only going to safety when the 3 day EMA goes below the 19 day EMA. Right now the 3 day EMA is below the 19 day EMA. I'll ignore the monkey for now and stick with the market. If I were to go to the most volatile, I'd be going to the S Fund. So that might just be what I'll do.

bad move sticking with stocks...gold is the real play

 

[fabijo]

bad move sticking with stocks...gold is the real play

That'd be nice, but the TSP doesn't have the option of buying gold.

 

[fabijo]

It also looks like we may have a crossover of the 75 day EMA and the 180 day EMA. That's my monkey indicator of long term trends. The last time we crossed the 75 day EMA below the 180 day EMA was in November of 2000. The 75 day EMA did not get back above the 180 day EMA until June 2003. It's been above the 180 since then.... until now. It is finally back below the 180. When that happens, my monkey's rule is to switch into fast mode by only going to safety when the 3 day EMA goes below the 19 day EMA. Right now the 3 day EMA is below the 19 day EMA. I'll ignore the monkey for now and stick with the market.

Well that's what I get for ignoring the monkey. Ignore the monkey and get spanked.

 

[kar_crazy]

quit spanken the monkey and listen to him lol

 

[kar_crazy]

your monkeys are right on more than i will ever be :nuts: hang tuff F

 

[fabijo]

I just put in the most recent numbers. We are still in the long term downtrend zone (75 day Exponential Moving Average is less than 180 day EMA), but yesterday just gave the monkey a buy signal (3 day EMA above 19 day EMA on S&P500). The most volatile right now is the I fund, though the S fund is racing to beat it. So, if I was actually obeying the monkey, I'd just now be going to the I Fund. Since I am disobedient to my monkey, I'll keep money in the S Fund.

If history repeats itself, we'll get a pretty huge rally next week. Rallies during the downtrends are pretty big. And if it is going to rally into an uptrend, then it will be much bigger. I can hardly wait.

 

[fabijo]

I've been away from the scene for quite a bit and will probably still be gone for a while. Just being busy with job applications, finishing a bachelor's degree, and being a responsible husband and parent. Besides, any free time I get I'm usually over on another forum ( http://www.ronpaulforums.com )

I just looked at the charts. We still have the long term down trend of 75 day EMA being below the 180 day EMA. The short term trend of 3 day EMA and 19 day EMA is looking like it will tease us with crossing over into the upside - and it just might. Either way, I'm making my IFT to the F Fund, which still looks to be in an up trend and at the bottom of its channel. Sorry that I'm not posting charts to show all this. You'll just have to either look it up yourself, or trust what I'm saying .

Please don't trust me with this stuff!

 

[fabijo]

Just a note to say I'm still sitting in the F Fund. The monkey has yet to give a buy signal on the market. Here's part one of some smart financial talk on the pressure put on the dollar:

 

[fabijo]

And here's the second part:

 

[mojo]

Ron Paul is the only candidate who is willing to talk about the reality of our (USA) financial situation, also the only candidate who supports and believes in our constitution.

 

[fabijo]

Ron Paul is the only candidate who is willing to talk about the reality of our (USA) financial situation, also the only candidate who supports and believes in our constitution.

Amen. I'm still voting for him, no matter who is listed on the ballot.

 

[Asylum]

Ron Paul is the only candidate who is willing to talk about the reality of our (USA) financial situation, also the only candidate who supports and believes in our constitution.

didnt he quit the race?

 

[fabijo]

didnt he quit the race?

nope.

 

[fabijo]

Yikes:

2 Percent Fed Rate

The likelihood the Fed will cut its target by one percentage point to 2 percent at the March 18 meeting rose to 54 percent yesterday, from 6 percent a week earlier, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed. The balance of bets is on a cut to 2.25 percent. The central bank has reduced rates five times since September, from 5.25 percent.

from http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aO.VkDuh7a.0

 

[fabijo]

It looks like our market will keep putting pressure on the spineless fed until they can get the dollar near 0%. Will it really boost the economy, or will we just be stuck in a stagflation?

The fed already boosted the market from 2003 with interest rates at 1%, but our "boom" wasn't as impressive as the internet boom. Do we have enough strength for another boom? Only time will tell. I've been wanting Birchtree's Mega Bull Cycle Primary Wave Three, but now that I realize the cost of it, I'm not so sure it's good. Especially if it has to come by whoring out our dollar.

 

[hessian]

It looks like our market will keep putting pressure on the spineless fed until they can get the dollar near 0%. Will it really boost the economy, or will we just be stuck in a stagflation?

The fed already boosted the market from 2003 with interest rates at 1%, but our "boom" wasn't as impressive as the internet boom. Do we have enough strength for another boom? Only time will tell. I've been wanting Birchtree's Mega Bull Cycle Primary Wave Three, but now that I realize the cost of it, I'm not so sure it's good. Especially if it has to come by whoring out our dollar.

Fabijo,
Amen! After all we worked so hard achieve, stressed so hard to accumulate, it blows my mind to see it all being taken away by our dollars being made worthless (or worth-less) -take your pick).
Thanks for posting - the more this message gets out the better! Love to hear CNBC, CNN, Bloom, Fox, etc. rant on this!!

 

[fabijo]

Fabijo,
Amen! After all we worked so hard achieve, stressed so hard to accumulate, it blows my mind to see it all being taken away by our dollars being made worthless (or worth-less) -take your pick).
Thanks for posting - the more this message gets out the better! Love to hear CNBC, CNN, Bloom, Fox, etc. rant on this!!

The problem is that most people I talk to just give me a blank stare when I even mention the Fed's interest rates. It means nothing to them. They're so concerned with taxes and the price of gas that they are completely clueless that they are being robbed by the devaluing of our currency, and that it is the dollar's fall in value that is making the price of our commodities rise.

 

[Fivetears]

I experience the same when I talk to others. The hollow looks are numbing. Sad. You forgot to mention one more primary concern of quite a few... taxes, gas and the welfare payday.

The problem is that most people I talk to just give me a blank stare when I even mention the Fed's interest rates. It means nothing to them. They're so concerned with taxes and the price of gas that they are completely clueless that they are being robbed by the devaluing of our currency, and that it is the dollar's fall in value that is making the price of our commodities rise.

 

[fabijo]

You forgot to mention one more primary concern of quite a few... taxes, gas and the welfare payday.

It's true, but I've seen worse from fellow workers. As federal employees, we are pretty safe in our job. Some people feel a little too safe, so they complain when they actually have to work for their salary.