fabijo's account talk

Fab,
Wanted to say thanks for the "big picture" chart. I feel better now (though I'm not sure if felling better is good or not)!
I'm one of those scared investors - ready to join the selling crowd, and I may still take the losses, pulling some out to G (in order to later DCA-in, nearer to bottoms). I'm down ~12K in less than 2 weeks! Should'a bailed with others, but kept tellin' myself there'd be upwards corrections was "any day". Maybe this isn't much to some, but I only made ~3% during the summer/since I started (currently I'm 50%S, 25%I). If USMs don't bounce on Tues, & Wed, I'll be bailing Thurs to all G fo Friday).
Appreciate if you'd crank up that monkey for me, would ya? :rolleyes:

I take all as an investing lesson (for future reference) - part of the learning the game!:)
 
Thanks for the input, hessian. I wish the monkey was a predicting monkey, but I just haven't managed to figure that part out yet. For now, I just pick the most volatile index during times when the 75 day exponential moving average is above the 180 day EMA in the S&P 500. If the 75 drops below the 180, then I'll be quicker to move in and out of stocks. My rule will then be when the 3 day EMA rises above the 19 day EMA (I think those are the numbers). Since June 2003, the 75 day EMA has been above the 180 day EMA.
 
I was kind of hoping for today to be another down day, just to really shake people up. But the day is not over yet, so we'll see. Once we break the top resistance, we'll be in no man's land.

spx.10year2007.11.12.gif
 
I was looking at a monthly chart all the way back to 1982-83.

I like to look at retracements on charts.

The high back in 2000 down to the low in 2002-03 is actually a 50% retracement of the 2000 high and the 1982-83 low.

Now, in 2007 we hit the high back in 2000 which has now made it a double top.

What concerns me a bit here is that, from the lows in 2002-03 to the high in 2007 we have yet to make a 50% retracement between those two. Which would be about at the 1200 level.

Just something I have been looking at with the 50% retracement situation.

Thanks for your input fabijo.
 
Wolverine, thanks for your retracement lookout. I haven't been diligent enough to study Fibonacci retracements yet.

Here's the 5 year chart as of now. Are we ready to break support? Are we at another bottom? Can we expect a spike through the support only to continue in our long term uptrend? Only time will tell. I still think it is too dangerous to play jump in and jump out at this point. I'm gonna sit tight and enjoy the roller coaster ride as the bull tries to shake everyone off.

spx.logarithmic.5yr.2007.11.15.gif
 
Looks like the U.S. Government is a bit upset that some Ron Paul coins are worth more than our fiat currency.

http://www.nysun.com/article/66542

U.S. Raids Issuer of Ron Paul Coins
Gold Seized by Agents in Indiana


Mr. von NotHaus said he suspects the raid is in response to "the competition" his currency poses to the U.S. Mint. His Liberty Dollars, whose value is the price of the coin's metal, have proven a better investment in recent years than government issued notes, whose value has plummeted in relation to the price of gold.

"This is an example of Bernanke trying to protect his own nest because he knows it's got holes in it," Mr. von NotHaus said, referring to Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. "He can't have something like the Liberty Dollar running around competing with his currency. It points out the fallacy of the fiat monetary system. They had to do something. Their currency is losing and we're going to the moon."
 
The monkey math is now showing the I Fund as the most volatile, with the C Fund now entering second place. I'm still flipping the coin in my head - go to C or I?? The dollar just needs to go up from here, but I guess it could break down further.

What to do? What to do? I have no idea. Ah, what the heck. I'll just go to the C Fund. According to Maddog's stats, barely anybody is in the C Fund. I'll just go and be one of the little guys.
 
Wow! I just watched a Youtube video of Ron Paul on MSNBC. It's the first interview of him on a national news channel that I can say went very well for Ron Paul. He wasn't ridiculed or laughed at. In fact, the reporter said that he is glad Ron Paul's supporters agree on his small government stance. Here's the video:

 
Here's the 5 year chart of the S&P. We poked below the trend line that I've been looking at, but it still looks like support. I'm still all in on this one. Nothing about this chart says we are in for a bear market.

spx.5.year.2007.11.19.gif
 
I'm staying in the C Fund, airlift. I'll update my monkey tonight and see how close the funds are to each other in terms of volatility.
 
Dow Theory folks are worried that a 130 to 135 point drop on the Transportations will signal a Bear market. I do not think traders will allow it even though the Target and Freddie numbers came in bad. FOMC minutes are this afternoon.

I only mention it because Carl on CNBC was very depressed about Freddie's numbers and mentioned the Dow Theory bear trigger.
 
I only mention it because Carl on CNBC was very depressed about Freddie's numbers and mentioned the Dow Theory bear trigger.

Oh goodie! :D
CNBC is talking about the bear trigger, too! The bad news and bad market may last a couple weeks longer just to really squeeze everyone out. Not only that, but since the TSP is going to limit our trades, the TSP is shaking out the active ones. If we go to safety, we may miss the ride of our life.
 
I'll keep some of my Ron Paul talk in my own thread so that that I'm not spamming others. I found a great statement on sound monetary policy. It goes really well with all our discussions on the weak dollar. Here it is in full:

Ron Paul and Why Sound Money Matters
Of all the issues that people attack Ron Paul for, the one they make the most fun of is his desire to return to sound money. That is very sad. It shows just how ill informed the American populace is about the danger of fiat money and why it was banned by the Constitution. Our founders knew better, we have forgotten.

To fully explore the issue takes entire books such as What has Government Done to our Money? by Rothbard and The Creature From Jekyll Island by Griffin and others. Very basically, fiat money is paper money that is not backed by anything. You cannot turn it into the government and get gold for it or silver, the way you used to be able to when we had silver certificates instead of Federal Reserve Notes. I know, this is kind of boring stuff, but bear with me.

When fiat, or paper money is created no one wants to accept it. Why should they? You might as well ask them to take payment in Monopoly money. So, to fix that problem, the government creates legal tender laws FORCING anyone who is doing business to accept these worthless pieces of paper as actual money. Why do such a thing? Because that way - and here is where it gets very interesting - they can tax you as much as they want without your knowledge. If the government wants more war, it has to pay for it. War is expensive. You cannot tax the people for it or they will get really angry and not support your war. So, the government "prints" more money. (Actually, more complex mechanisms than a printing press are used, but the concept is the same). The more money that gets "printed" out of thin air, the more the value of the money in your pocket gets diluted.

Think about it. If tomorrow the entire money supply in the country doubled, we would have twice as many paper dollars chasing the same amount of goods. Prices in the economy would double and each dollar would be worth half as much as it once was. You wouldn't have any more buying power than. When the government prints extra dollars, it makes the ones in your pocket right now worth less which is why prices keep rising and no matter how hard you work, you are barely breaking even. Of course, they keep printing more, but you don't wake up with double the money in your pocket so things are really bad for you.

This "inflation tax" is what is causing most of us to feel the economic pinch right now. Right now one main reason things are so tough on you financially is because the government is spending up to one trillion dollars a year on the military. Guess who is paying for that? Us. Guess when? Now and in the future when we will have to pay interest on even more loans the government took out. The government has no money of its own, it only gets what it takes from you and me. And they have been taking a lot of it. We just haven't seen it directly coming out of our pockets in the form of taxes in our paycheck, but we sure feel it when it costs over fifty bucks to fill the tank, or milk is five bucks a gallon, or your cat food goes from 7.99 to 12.99 in three months. Right now the prices are rising because the value of the dollar is dropping.

That is why we cannot afford to keep this empire building going. We can't afford it. I know my cost of living is going down and I am scared about the future, how about you? How much lower can you afford the dollar to drop?

Ron Paul, the one we all keep talking about, has a solution for this: eliminate the government's monopolistic control of the money supply; introduce competition by repealing legal tender laws; and let free people in the free market offer alternatives to the federal reserve notes we are forced to use now. Given the choice, I think we would rather use money that is actually backed by something of value. The idea might seem radical but if you give it some thought the truly strange notion is to trade goods for worthless pieces of paper. Switching to sound money is our only way out of the "inflation" tax and keeping the government's paws off our wallets. It only sounds odd because we are not used to the idea. What is really awful for most of us in the middle and lower classes is that the other candidates won't even entertain the idea. The less you make, the more this "tax" affects you. When you live paycheck to paycheck every dollar counts.

If you want to wake up in the morning with your money being worth what it was when you went to sleep, then open your eyes America. Vote for Ron Paul! All the other candidates make fun of him for wanting to protect your money. They actually laugh at him. Well, they are really laughing at you, the public, because they know they can continue to rob you blind as long as they want. Fight back. You have a choice!

"A wise and frugal government, which shall leave men free to
regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and
shall not take from the mouth of labor and bread it has earned
- this is the sum of good government. "
Thomas Jefferson

from here:
http://www.gambling911.com/Ron-Paul-111807.html
 
I'll keep some of my Ron Paul talk in my own thread so that that I'm not spamming others. I found a great statement on sound monetary policy. It goes really well with all our discussions on the weak dollar.

Hey Fab, Did you see my post (I forget where, but yesterday on the video), where I thought Ben should be the one doing the schooling? I gotta admit, I don't know Ron Paul, assume he's a Senator or a Rep.

My point was that Ron scolding Ben about rate cuts, that are "just patches" causeing inflation etc. -seemed inappropriate, actually backwards! - I agree fully with what he said, but I think he was saying it to the wrong people! Ben wasn't involved in getting us into the mess we are in, or caused the problems - its our Gov't reps, Pres. Admin, & all the spend-happys. Do you agree??

BTW, I work in DC, I see alot of the waste! Its impossible to avoid (wish I could)! - nuthin' but a bunch of sick pork-happy OINK'ers!
 
Hey Fab, Did you see my post (I forget where, but yesterday on the video), where I thought Ben should be the one doing the schooling? I gotta admit, I don't know Ron Paul, assume he's a Senator or a Rep.

My point was that Ron scolding Ben about rate cuts, that are "just patches" causeing inflation etc. -seemed inappropriate, actually backwards! - I agree fully with what he said, but I think he was saying it to the wrong people! Ben wasn't involved in getting us into the mess we are in, or caused the problems - its our Gov't reps, Pres. Admin, & all the spend-happys. Do you agree??

Ron Paul is a Representative from Texas and is a Republican candidate for presidency. If he doesn't make it through the primaries, I have no idea who I'd vote for. Both Republicans and Democrats are into spending big bucks.

I agree with you that Ben didn't get us into this mess. But it's his job to figure a way to get us out. The only way our government can spend like crazy is if they have the cash to do it. The government gets the cash from the Federal Reserve, which is "printing" the money.

Ron Paul's beef with Bernanke stems from his beef about our monetary system. Ron Paul wants our money to be backed up by something, like gold and silver, instead of just paper. Sure, it wasn't Ben who made U.S. Dollars practically free, but the power is now in Ben's hands. Ben keeps saying that there is no fear of inflation and that it is under control, but he is wrong. And he is making it worse by lowering the interest rates. Look at the skyrocketing prices in commodities. Somehow, that is not really reflected in the Consumer Price Index. It may hurt us and the market if interest rates were raised to make the Dollar worth a little more, but with our current situation, that's what we need to do. The best thing to do would be to phase back in our silver/gold standard. Let our currency mean something and be backed up by something. When that happens, watch how many foreign investors come back to us asking for more reserves of American Dollars.
 
Both Republicans and Democrats are into spending big bucks. - Agree!:sick:

I agree with you that Ben didn't get us into this mess. But it's his job to figure a way to get us out. Ben's power is VERY limited - The Fed Reserve only controls lending rates.

The only way our government can spend like crazy is if they have the cash to do it. - That's decisions made soley by Congress and President (and his admin.

The government gets the cash from the Federal Reserve, which is "printing" the money. - Only can print - as told to by the Treasury!.

Ron Paul's beef with Bernanke stems from his beef about our monetary system. Again, Its NOT Ben - he's got Very limited power. No disrespect intended to Ben, but essentially Ben is just the guy who brings the mop when the call comes "hey clean-up on isle #5".

Ron Paul wants our money to be backed up by something, like gold and silver, instead of just paper. Sure, it wasn't Ben who made U.S. Dollars practically free, but the power is now in Ben's hands - I don't know enough about first part, but must ask - what power???. :confused:

Ben keeps saying that there is no fear of inflation and that it is under control, but he is wrong. And he is making it worse by lowering the interest rates. - All true, VERY true, but that is the only thing, the only power Ben/Fed Reserve has [period].

Look at the skyrocketing prices in commodities. Somehow, that is not really reflected in the Consumer Price Index. It may hurt us and the market if interest rates were raised to make the Dollar worth a little more, but with our current situation, that's what we need to do. The best thing to do would be to phase back in our silver/gold standard. Let our currency mean something and be backed up by something. When that happens, watch how many foreign investors come back to us asking for more reserves of American Dollars. Agree with the rest (except I can't say I know enough about gold/silver standard issue) -maybe...

The Problems (& Solutions) are with our elected officials. Look at all the pork (That is the problem -and with the Porkers that are our elected officials!). I would consider voting for Ron Paul, if this is what he is about!!!
I just think he's misguided if he thinks the problem is w Ben/Fed Reserve - the only power they have is to adjust rates. I think Ben needs to stand up and say this in a LOUD voice, rather than cowtowling to Congresional reps. :worried:
Just MHO.:)
VR
 
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I just think he's misguided if he thinks the problem is w Ben/Fed Reserve - the only power they have is to adjust rates.

True, that's the only power, but that power is what is devaluing our currency. It is the existence of the Federal Reserve that is the problem. We shouldn't have a secretive, private organization in charge of our money supply. There wouldn't need to be any meetings to decide on interest rates if money was real money.
 
Hey Fab,
OK! Now I think we're gettin' somewhere! I agree - to an extent. The Fed's Rate Cuts do devalue our currency. I'll even fully agree its a BIG factor - but there's others, I think even BIGGER.

The Biggest is the CRAZY, OUT-OF-CONTROL spending! That's the reason the Treasury must order money printed out of thin air. Perhaps if it were tied down to some tangible asset... (like gold/silver), but its not and maybe this is the reason! ;)

Also, I think there is a need for a Fed Reserve system, but agree re: there should be NO need for it to be "secretive"!

I'd add, they exist for US, not the other way around! So, therefore, they should be paying US interest - NOT the other way around! :toung:
VR
 
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