fabijo's account talk

[fabijo]

Everything you would ever want to know about the Federal Reserve Board [FED], Resposibilities, Powers etc.:blink:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pf/pf.htm

Thanks, nnuut. I was looking at that earlier this evening. Here's a quote from that document:

Furthermore, changes in monetary policy affect the exchange value of the dollar on currency markets. For example, if interest rates rise in the United States, yields on dollar assets will look more favorable, which will lead to bidding up of the dollar on foreign exchange markets. The higher dollar will lower the cost of imports to U.S. residents and raise the price of U.S. exports to those living outside the United States. Conversely, lower interest rates in the United States will lead to a decline in the exchange value of the dollar, prompting an increase in the price of imports and a decline in the price of exports.

 

[fabijo]

Looks like the support line I've been looking at on the 5 year chart has been poked through. It is still too soon to say it is broken, but it is just enough to make plenty of people bail. I ain't afraid of no dip. Do I hear 1600 by December 31st?

 

[vectorman]

Looks like the support line I've been looking at on the 5 year chart has been poked through. It is still too soon to say it is broken, but it is just enough to make plenty of people bail. I ain't afraid of no dip. Do I hear 1600 by December 31st?

How about 1350 by Jan 31st, 2008?:blink: Then 1600 by Dec 31st...2008.:nuts:

View attachment 2667

 

[fabijo]

How about 1350 by Jan 31st, 2008?:blink: Then 1600 by Dec 31st...2008.:nuts:

I hear you, but I think that yellow trendline is long behind us. We are entering a new phase in the long term market. I'm more excited by the fact that we don't have a new resistance line once we broke resistance in October of last year. The levels of volatility we've seen since March convinces me that this is one wild bull ride. Since October 2006, we've entered a new bull ride that history can't tell us about. It's just in the beginning stages of building momentum. Think of those dips as times when more and more people got scared out. I used to think Birchtree was nuts, but the lightbulb turned on in my head when I started to think in terms of 20 year horizons.

 

[vectorman]

I hear you, but I think that yellow trendline is long behind us. We are entering a new phase in the long term market. I'm more excited by the fact that we don't have a new resistance line once we broke resistance in October of last year. The levels of volatility we've seen since March convinces me that this is one wild bull ride. Since October 2006, we've entered a new bull ride that history can't tell us about. It's just in the beginning stages of building momentum. Think of those dips as times when more and more people got scared out. I used to think Birchtree was nuts, but the lightbulb turned on in my head when I started to think in terms of 20 year horizons.

For this new bull ride to continue, the Fed will need to keep cutting rates. They want the consumer to keep on spending not saving. The stock market wants the rate cuts to keep coming, but the Fed is juggling eggs and it's getting harder for them to keep it going.

View attachment 2673

 

[vectorman]

Chart of the 10 yr T Yield vs the DJIA. If the Fed can keep cutting rates, good for the stock market. But the Fed has to be worried about the inflation monster getting loose.

View attachment 2676

 

[fabijo]

vectorman, thanks for the good charts. You might be right after all!
I'm still optimistic and think that we'll break through the top part of the channel again where we'll have a run bigger than the 1995 to 2000 run.

 

[Birchtree]

Markets can move well above resistance zones, or below support zones, and thus there is a sense of a "breakout". The breakout is usually temporary, and then becomes a "fakeout". But once again, as the market moves strongly, people believe they must act and act now, or they'll miss out. So they act irrationally, usually buying right near the top or selling right near the bottom. I believe after today that perhaps the NYSE ratio adjusted A/D line along with its 5% Trend (39 day EMA) and its 10% Trend (19 day EMA) are all below the 1% Trend (200 day EMA) pushing toward another retest of the A/D lines old 1959 resistance area. We are now in the third snapback process of trying to breach this line. It took 48 years to build this support line and I believe it will hold. This foundational base will help propel the next trajectory toward the epi center of Primary wave 3. I think we have a violent move on the way and I don't mean down.

 

[fabijo]

This foundational base will help propel the next trajectory toward the epi center of Primary wave 3. I think we have a violent move on the way and I don't mean down.

Violence would be good. I can't wait to see it! I still say we break 1600 by year's end. :nuts:

 

[fabijo]

I love this video. It brings up some interesting things:

 

[fabijo]

Gotta love this response:

 

[fabijo]

The monkey math is now showing the I Fund as the most volatile, with the C Fund now entering second place. I'm still flipping the coin in my head - go to C or I?? The dollar just needs to go up from here, but I guess it could break down further.

What to do? What to do? I have no idea. Ah, what the heck. I'll just go to the C Fund. According to Maddog's stats, barely anybody is in the C Fund. I'll just go and be one of the little guys.

Well, the monkey stayed with the I Fund since that post on Nov. 19th, but I stayed with the C Fund. Between all three funds during that time, the I Fund has done better, but oh well. At least the C fund stayed in second place, which is where the monkey told me the C fund was at!

Anyway, I just put the data in for the past two weeks. The monkey just now gave the C Fund first place in the volatility market for now. Let's see how long this one lasts! I'm now more confident sticking with the C Fund over the I fund for now.

Peace.

 

[fabijo]

Here's the latest monkey Excel file:

http://mircats.com/TSP_Tools/TSPpricesVolatility.xls

 

[airlift]

Re: 12%ayear's Account Talk
I just signed the petition. Great idea!

Re: 12%ayear's Account Talk
Spread the word. I am lobbying very hard and calling everyday. Remember it is your hard earned money and future on the line. I hope they charge a small fee so they will not gripe again in the future.
__________________
http://www.tspshareholder.org/ spread the word
__________________
http://www.tspshareholder.org/

 

[fabijo]

Signed it!

 

[fabijo]

Well, I haven't been paying much attention to markets these past few weeks. The little time I've had when not focusing on school has been focusing on the Ron Paul campaign and keeping up with the grassroots movement over on Ron Paul Forums.

I just did a quick check of the s&P again. It looks like we've broken support a couple of times, but each time jumped back up. It's tough to say if it will hold, but the monkey still says to stay all in. I'm still all in. Now I gotta get the data from the past few weeks to see which fund to be in...

For now, here's the chart so far:

 

[airlift]

HAPPY NEW YEAR to ALL!

 

[fabijo]

HAPPY NEW YEAR to ALL!

Happy New Year!!

 

[fabijo]

Woohoo!! I beat the S&P 500!

Congrats to the many people who beat the I Fund, also. I can't wait to see what this next year will bring with the new way we need to strategize.

 

[fabijo]

Wow. I've been out of the loop for a while now. School, work, and rooting for Ron Paul have been occupying all my time. Well, it looks like we finally broke well below the support line I've been touting. It also looks like we may have a crossover of the 75 day EMA and the 180 day EMA. That's my monkey indicator of long term trends. The last time we crossed the 75 day EMA below the 180 day EMA was in November of 2000. The 75 day EMA did not get back above the 180 day EMA until June 2003. It's been above the 180 since then.... until now. It is finally back below the 180. When that happens, my monkey's rule is to switch into fast mode by only going to safety when the 3 day EMA goes below the 19 day EMA. Right now the 3 day EMA is below the 19 day EMA. I'll ignore the monkey for now and stick with the market. If I were to go to the most volatile, I'd be going to the S Fund. So that might just be what I'll do.