fabijo's account talk

[fabijo]

It's kind of funny that I was so excited about this chart just a few months ago. I was convinced that we'd stay above the top resistance line that was broken in October 2006. Now, no matter how many lines I draw, it looks bad. The only possible hope here is if we stay above the thick blue line I drew. I also circled the point where the monkey said it has gone into a long term down trending market in January.

Without further ado, here's the ugly S&P chart for the past 5 years:

 

[fabijo]

Maybe this chart will ease everyone's pain:

 

[The_Technician]

Maybe this chart will ease everyone's pain:

U know what I see in this picture, economic failure since 2000....look at the highest peaks in 2000 and this last year.....no economic expansion out of the S&P ......in 7 years.....

Are we going for another 56 years of downtrend as Fibronacci suggests????


Carnac

 

[caymanbrac12]

Currencies - Don't own anything that's green :worried: unless it's beer.

 

[fabijo]

Are we going for another 56 years of downtrend as Fibronacci suggests????

Is that even possible with the plunge protection team? :worried:

 

[fabijo]

Currencies - Don't own anything that's green :worried: unless it's beer.

Hey, St. Patrick's Day was yesterday. No more green allowed.

 

[fabijo]

w....o.....w

What a high flying day. And to think that I speculated the rate cut was already priced in...

 

[fabijo]

Surprisingly, the monkey still has not triggered a buy. 3 day EMA is still below the 19 day EMA. It could easily cross over with one or two more up days. By then, the huge gains would be lost.

Well, with these trade limitations, I might just have to stick to the long term indicators anyway. Sheepishly sitting in F fund.

 

[Corepuncher]

Surprisingly, the monkey still has not triggered a buy. 3 day EMA is still below the 19 day EMA. It could easily cross over with one or two more up days. By then, the huge gains would be lost.

Well, with these trade limitations, I might just have to stick to the long term indicators anyway. Sheepishly sitting in F fund.

Ahhh, the Shire!

 

[fabijo]

Ahhh, the Shire!

yup. Can I live as a Hobbit yet?

 

[fabijo]

I really hate that I'm missing these nice gains. Are these bear market rallies or the next leg up in a huge bull market? We'll only know in the future. The monkey's trigger hasn't been tripped yet, so I'm still sitting out in the F. If the 3 day EMA crosses the 19 day EMA, I'm also going to watch for a break in the mid term resistance I'll show below. I've also circled how close we are to having the 3 day EMA cross above the 19 day EMA.

 

[fabijo]

Here's an interesting article. Sounds like it could be talking about this past year:

In the months leading up to the panic, the stock market was shaky; credit was tight, with banks and securities firms suffering from ongoing liquidity problems. Investors were skitterish; there were rumors of insider market manipulations and newspaper writers mulled over the possibility of a recession.
... the rest is here http://blog.pennlive.com/leftcoast/2008/03/bernanke_morgan_and_the_saving.html

 

[Corepuncher]

Are these bear market rallies or the next leg up in a huge bull market? We'll only know in the future.

Why would the market resume a bull run? Cheap money has run out...people are not going to be able to borrow as much. I predict increasing defaults on credit card debt...writedowns are not going to end until we cleanse the whole system, and that will take time IMO. At the same time we are "rallying" over the last week, rates at the short end of the curve have tanked. I think commodities will come down, and most of that money will not go back into stocks. Get ready to refinance your house in a few months! I'm gonna get a 15 yr fixed for 3%, watch! lol

 

[Silverbird]

Why would the market resume a bull run? Cheap money has run out...people are not going to be able to borrow as much. I predict increasing defaults on credit card debt...writedowns are not going to end until we cleanse the whole system, and that will take time IMO. At the same time we are "rallying" over the last week, rates at the short end of the curve have tanked. I think commodities will come down, and most of that money will not go back into stocks. Get ready to refinance your house in a few months! I'm gonna get a 15 yr fixed for 3%, watch! lol

I hate to burst your bubble, but I doubt the loan companies are going to let you refinance at a lower rate - mortgage rates are not following the Fed cuts at all, actually they have been going in the opposite direction. So those of us who have fixed rates, figure that's the rate you are going to have until at least June, if not the end of the year.

 

[fabijo]

Get ready to refinance your house in a few months! I'm gonna get a 15 yr fixed for 3%, watch! lol

Nothing to refinance yet. I'm a New York City rent payer. I hope house prices keep dropping, since I am moving out of New York City and into Bucks County, PA. I'd like to buy me a good house in a good neighborhood for not too much money. I'll probably be buying around June/July time frame.

 

[Asylum]

I hate to burst your bubble, but I doubt the loan companies are going to let you refinance at a lower rate - mortgage rates are not following the Fed cuts at all, actually they have been going in the opposite direction. So those of us who have fixed rates, figure that's the rate you are going to have until at least June, if not the end of the year.

Spot on!

 

[fabijo]

I hate to burst your bubble, but I doubt the loan companies are going to let you refinance at a lower rate - mortgage rates are not following the Fed cuts at all, actually they have been going in the opposite direction. So those of us who have fixed rates, figure that's the rate you are going to have until at least June, if not the end of the year.

That's how it's looking. That's definitely one way to increase profit margins. Since they are getting the cheap money, but loaning it out more expensively, we may see some some banks coming out nicely ahead - especially if they've stayed away from hoarding up these subprime loans.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

I hate to burst your bubble, but I doubt the loan companies are going to let you refinance at a lower rate - mortgage rates are not following the Fed cuts at all, actually they have been going in the opposite direction. So those of us who have fixed rates, figure that's the rate you are going to have until at least June, if not the end of the year.

from bloomberg:

MORTGAGE RATES (Rates may include points.)
CURRENT 1 MO.PRIOR
15-YEAR 5.08 5.51
30-YEAR 5.62 6.01
1-YEAR ARM 5.53 4.98

the ARMs have gone up

 

[fabijo]

from bloomberg:

MORTGAGE RATES (Rates may include points.)
CURRENT 1 MO.PRIOR
15-YEAR 5.08 5.51
30-YEAR 5.62 6.01
1-YEAR ARM 5.53 4.98

the ARMs have gone up

Good info there, Futurestrader. Thanks.

 

[fabijo]

A quick check to the autotracker shows me that the F Fund is the best performer so far. Looks like I would've done good to follow my monkey at the end of December, when it said to get out of the market. Well, at least I'm beating the S&P 500. Looks like most of us are. From 2000 to 2002, the F Fund was doing nicely, ranging between 8.6% and 11.6% each of those years. Will this year be similar?