fabijo's account talk

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fabijo said:
A quick check to the autotracker shows me that the F Fund is the best performer so far. Looks like I would've done good to follow my monkey at the end of December, when it said to get out of the market. Well, at least I'm beating the S&P 500. :D Looks like most of us are. From 2000 to 2002, the F Fund was doing nicely, ranging between 8.6% and 11.6% each of those years. Will this year be similar?
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Good question. I hope so. I don't see where the fundamentals have changed much even though I was surprised by the Anderson report. While the Financials problems may be over soon I don't see much recovery until oil comes down....
 
Tomncath said:
Good question. I hope so. I don't see where the fundamentals have changed much even though I was surprised by the Anderson report. While the Financials problems may be over soon I don't see much recovery until oil comes down....
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Here's some gloom and hope at the same time:
``We have the ingredient for a pullback in prices in the next few months,'' he said. ``Worldwide, crude oil inventories are rising and we are in the midst of a significant turnaround season in the U.S.''
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Rest of the article is here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDCohON9jdQk
 
I read that inventories always increase and commodities fall during a recession. No jobs, no disposable income, no confidence, means no demand, at least here.
 
Show-me said:
I read that inventories always increase and commodities fall during a recession. No jobs, no disposable income, no confidence, means no demand, at least here.
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Yeah, might be a good time to start shorting commodities. What part of this equation is not screaming out recession??
 
I'm just waiting for the big lay offs to begin. When you KNOW people that are getting laid off then you know YOU are in a recession.
 
Hey Fab,
You're right. I was sitting here, listening to CNBC on TV, about 1/2 (off work today), - heard them blabbering about what sounded like new "pink slips headed out today for Wall Streeter's"
- So I Google'd it up, found that article, and posted it (darn, my mistake -hate to have passed bad/stale old information).

It may still be happening - but all - please consider the source (CNBC)!! That will teach me to listen to CNBC - anyway, if there is anything to it, we'll hear later -from other sources. Apologize in advance if its a miss!!
:embarrest: :o
 
I saw part of Oprah last night (Did I just admit that??). It looked like they were talking about ways families can live with less and on a lower budget. If Oprah is prepping the average American to save up and to stop buying senselessly, we could continue to see lower consumer spending.
 
Where do you think the next bubble will pop up? I'm betting on the stock market and over years we may easily see the top around 39,000 on the DJIA. I'll die rich!!!
 
Birchtree said:
Where do you think the next bubble will pop up? I'm betting on the stock market and over years we may easily see the top around 39,000 on the DJIA. I'll die rich!!!
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:nuts:

They'll keep creating bubbles. I'm trying to figure where it'll pop up next. I'm not too sure it'll be in the financial sector.
 
In 2003 the market went up 3,000 Dow points in 10 months from the March'03 bottom. Why can't we do 4,000 Dow points this year in 8 more months - watch the fun. I know we've got at least a couple more 400 point bangers in front of us.
 
I'm finally dumping the F Fund. What a waste. I put in my IFT for 50% G and 50% C. The 75 day EMA hasn't yet crossed above the 180 day EMA on the S&P 500, so my long term indicator is still bearish. That's why I'm not going 100% stocks. But since we have trading restrictions, I'm using a short term indicator of the 25 day v. 50 day EMA, instead of my monkey's 3 day v. 19 day. Those are in uptrends, so I'll just go 50% in stocks.

Peace.
 
fabijo said:
I put in my IFT for 50% G and 50% C. ... I'm using a short term indicator of the 25 day v. 50 day EMA....
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I'm in a generally similar stock/bond breakout for exactly the same reason you just stated. So I'm glad to hear your thoughts on this. Makes me feel better about my allocation. Thanks!

Lady
 
XL-entLady said:
I'm in a generally similar stock/bond breakout for exactly the same reason you just stated. So I'm glad to hear your thoughts on this. Makes me feel better about my allocation. Thanks!

Lady
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Cool. I just happen to have a bad history of doing these things at the wrong time. Just look at what's going on this afternoon. Now, I'm afraid it might continue downward. Oh well. :(
 
0416macaque.jpg

May I recommend a new set of monkeys from a more reputable facility; right here in San Antonio.
http://www.sfbr.org/pages/about_SFBR.php
There's a bunch to choose from.
:nuts:​
 
fabijo said:
Cool. I just happen to have a bad history of doing these things at the wrong time. Just look at what's going on this afternoon. Now, I'm afraid it might continue downward. Oh well. :(
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I called it the other day! I am also good at calling what the lottery numbers won't be. Next week, it will not be 09, 13, 16, 19, 34
 
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