fabijo's account talk

[fabijo]

Well, there you go, Remo! We got some down action today. Much more in the S Fund than I hoped. I guess I'm lucky I slept this morning. I probably would've jumped to another fund just so I could move around. Now that the S is almost 1% down, I would be jumping into it. Since I'm already here, I'll sit here for now.

 

[fabijo]

Am I foolishly holding onto the S Fund? I wanna switch to the C Fund, but then I'd be accepting these losses. If I keep holding, I could just keep losing. What to do, what to do. Maybe I'll have time later this morning to consult with the monkeys....

 

[ChemEng]

Let me know when you figure it out! Im in the same boat this morning (except sitting in F)...

 

[Birchtree]

It's good every now and then to test your endurance level for pain tolerance. I've never seen so many people afraid of a little pain. Pain for gosh sakes let's you know you are alive. The S fund will rebound because of low interest rates - but there is a wall out there somewhere at higher levels.

 

[fabijo]

It's not pain that I'm afraid of. I just want to always be in the fund that gains the most for the day! I know, I want the impossible.

Anyway, no time to consult with the monkeys. I'm gonna hold it for at least one more day (the S Fund, that is).

 

[fabijo]

Looks like some luck came my way this week. I just haven't had much time to think in the mornings. I'm still sitting in the S Fund. I took a quick look at the charts just now. If we are to keep going up from here (which I believe), the S Fund is lagging the most of the three and has more to do if it is is to at least be comparable to the other funds. Looking at the prices, the S Fund is only a few cents from the top on Feb 22. Just one or two big up days for the small caps will do the trick. But since the big caps are looking strong and solid, I'd probably be doing some more switching to them. The last few weeks, the monkey kept wanting the C Fund which is a rare occassion for the monkey. Most of the time, the monkey wants to be in the S or the I fund. I gotta think of this as some sort of a shift in where the money is headed.
Here are the charts from stockcharts:

S Fund

I Fund

C Fund

 

[weatherweenie]

Looks like some luck came my way this week. I just haven't had much time to think in the mornings. I'm still sitting in the S Fund.

Way to stick with your system.

Myself, I got spooked and went to the G fund cob yesterday. Oh well, made some $$ Mon/Tue.

After lookin at your charts, I'm wishing I would've jumped back in.

 

[fabijo]

Looks like the S made back what it lost the other day.

 

[fabijo]

Some TSPers have been doing profit taking today. Meanwhile, I'm looking forward to more upward action this week and the rest of the year.

I've been wondering what will be the driver of the huge bull run for the next few years. Now I'm guessing it will be the money being offered to purchase public companies only to take them private. That will drive prices through the roof as the supply of stocks becomes scarce. It could also explain why there have been so many purchases of stock by the companies themselves. They want to get all that money from these private takeovers.

I'm still looking at the following chart. It is a four year chart of the S&P 500. The thin red line shows the resistance we've had until October, 2006. The thicker red lines show what I think the current channel is. The bottom thick line is more of a longer term bottom for those major corrections we may have in coming years. The top thick line is only the current top that I anticipate will be broken soon. I think this market is still looking for a resistance point and it hasn't been found yet. Look at the rapid pace it climbed to this point since March. It looks like there is a buying panic going on right now. That kind of panic buying has me wondering what "they" know and "we" don't.

Here's the chart. Let's see if the resistance will be broken in the near future as this market tries to find the sky.

 

[fabijo]

Here we go again with another C Fund day. Big Caps keep coming out on top for about three weeks now.

 

[IllinifanMichael]

Wow... that chart rocks! So you put the red lines where you wanted?? How about keeping thin red line along top including 06?? maybe in blue? and bottom thick red along whole bottom... SIGHTING it on my computer they look parallel & if you have time could you extend lines backwards?? Impressive fabijo...

 

[fabijo]

Wow... that chart rocks! So you put the red lines where you wanted?? How about keeping thin red line along top including 06?? maybe in blue? and bottom thick red along whole bottom... SIGHTING it on my computer they look parallel & if you have time could you extend lines backwards?? Impressive fabijo...

Thanks, IllinifanMichael. I put the lines where I thought key resistance levels and key support levels were. I wanted to show that resistance was broken in October and acted as support when Feb 27 drop came. That's why I drew the thin red line where I drew it!

I tried doing what you were thinking, but it just doesn't work. The lines just don't do what you're picturing.

The ghetto method to drawing lines on charts:

Get a chart from one of your favorite sites (stockcharts.com, bigcharts.marketwatch.com). I used bigcharts.marketwatch.com. To save the chart on your computer, right-click the chart and choose save image as... To edit the chart, open it in Microsoft Paint. Draw lines, circles, squiggly things, smiley faces (or weeping faces), or whatever. Save it, upload it to your favorite server, share it!

 

[fabijo]

And just to throw another chart out there for viewing's sake. Here's a close-up of the S&P 500 for the past year. I still put the bottom and tops, but I also put in the tight range the S&P has been trading in most of the time in recent months. It's like a pinball bouncing around in the tight range. When it broke through in February, it shot way down. I wonder if the reverse would happen if it broke through the top. That could be fun! :nuts:

Disclaimer: I have no idea what I'm talking about!

 

[Birchtree]

You were almost starting to draw a pitchfork. Get ready for 1527 and beyond - with or without any consolidation. It may all be done on an intraday basis. We are now in the longest up stretch since 1929 - that should keep'em away from the bull awhile longer.

 

[IllinifanMichael]

And just to throw another chart out there for viewing's sake. Here's a close-up of the S&P 500 for the past year. I still put the bottom and tops, but I also put in the tight range the S&P has been trading in most of the time in recent months. It's like a pinball bouncing around in the tight range. When it broke through in February, it shot way down. I wonder if the reverse would happen if it broke through the top. That could be fun! :nuts:

Disclaimer: I have no idea what I'm talking about!

That is so cool.... come on with your skills you can do like past 4 years!! I tried going to one of those and I got banned... :laugh: J/K but I need guidance and more time. Looking at yours is sooooo much easier than trying to make one of my own... I'll buy you a 6 pack of your favorite beverage..

 

[IllinifanMichael]

That is so cool.... come on with your skills you can do like past 4 years!! I tried going to one of those and I got banned... :laugh: J/K but I need guidance and more time. Looking at yours is sooooo much easier than trying to make one of my own... I'll buy you a 6 pack of your favorite beverage..

I guess I could go to the graph paper and pencil and ruler method...

 

[fabijo]

I guess I could go to the graph paper and pencil and ruler method...

:laugh: Sometimes I just hold a flat object (book, paper, ruler, etc) against the computer screen to see if what looks like a straight line really is a straight line!

 

[fabijo]

Man, I just read Tom's market commentary. That Investor sentiment survey and explanation is awesome. I really think we are about to explode on another rally that nobody can explain. I'll be making my IFT to the C Fund to catch this big rally.

From S to C cob: 5/4/2007

 

[Birchtree]

On 1/20/07 the NYSE cumulative A/D line achieved another multi-decade high. And if you haven't heard the NYSE daily cumulative ratio-adjusted (RA) A/D line broke it's March 1959 resistance mark. This move to new all-time highs on the ratio-adjusted (RA) NYAD changes the current Dow count from being that of Intermediate wave 3 of POrimary wave 5 to Intermediate wave 3 to Primary wave 3 of Cycle wave 3 to the upside. This set of circumstances only come along once in a lifetime. If this move continues to be the epicenter of wave 3 of 3 up right now, we will take out the 2003 MCSUM high of +1600.

 

[fabijo]

Birch, I used to think you were living in an imaginary pipe dream, but I can't ignore the charts and how the market has been acting to confirm it. Once I took the time to look at the long term view of the charts, I could see exactly what you have been talking about. It really does get risky trying to time the tiny dips when we are on the heel of a huge, unexplainable run. The only "timing" I will do is just switching to the fund that I think will move faster on a given day.

For next week, I may just make an IFT to the I Fund to be effective on Tuesday. Then I'll make my IFT back to either the C or the S on Wednesday to catch the +FV I'm anticipating after the FOMC meeting.