fabijo's account talk

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You're a good man Charlie Brown. Volume is now leading breadth of market on an intermediate trend basis to the upside. This is the best buying stretch since 1929 - that ought to scare the chickadees back to the Lilly Pad. If they continue to swim against this raging bullish tide it will be injurious to their bottom line. It won't be my fault. Snort.
 
Even though I haven't been checking with the monkey(s) all last week, it looks like I did the moves the monkey would've wanted anyway. I guess I think like a monkey. I just made my IFT to the I fund from the C fund to be effective cob 5/7, as per the monkey's request. I'm a bit nervous about this one because of how low the dollar is; I keep thinking it is going to rebound upward. But, nervousness from me probably means it is the right choice since I would normally make the wrong decision on my own.
 
fabijo said:
For next week, I may just make an IFT to the I Fund to be effective on Tuesday. Then I'll make my IFT back to either the C or the S on Wednesday to catch the +FV I'm anticipating after the FOMC meeting.
Click to expand...

Hmmm. Maybe that would've been a good idea.

*bad monkeys!* bad! Stop giving me signals too early! :D

It's all fun and games anyway.
 
Paladin, I like your idea of DCAing into the funds. I've been thinking about doing it myself lately, but would also want to code my monkeys to do the same so I can backtest it. I've been doing a bunch of research into different open source projects going on right now for stock trading and backtesting. I haven't gotten far enough to actually install one, but I'm getting close. I'll be sure to talk about one or two when I actually start testing these programs.
 
I recently found out about the concept of a grand supercycle, thanks to Birchtree's constant words of a secular bull market. Wikipedia has a little article on the Grand Supercycle here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_supercycle

I did a little research on grand supercycle bear markets and grand supercycle bull markets. It looks like most people believe the year 2000 marked the beginning of a grand supercycle bear market. I can't find anyone (except Birchtree, calling it instead "mega trend") who thinks we are currently in a grand supercycle bull market. I guess to do the contrarian thing would be to believe we are in a grand supercycle bull market, because there are too many supercycle bears. The recent Investor Sentiment Survey verified that.

Now if I were to measure the emotions of this world, I would interpret this world as one where we are just peaking our heads out of the dark. We are starting to see social entrepreneurs become more popular. These people do good for the poor by maintaining a business that helps pay for constructive efforts(food, health, education). I have spoken to plenty of people who are just getting a glimpse of hope in their eye that some of this world's problems possibly have an end (things such as poverty). Some of the people who are living in poverty are suddenly getting a big shining vision of hope in their eye as they are being introduced to the world economy . They start to see big possibilities.

Since Elliot Waves are based on emotional cycles, these emotions are about to explode to the upside around the globe. So instead of seeing the current market as a bull about to end, we need to see it as a new bull about to begin. The big business for the next century will be in constructing the new world and hopefully unifying it. Only then should we really worry, because that's when we've hit the peak. After that Tower of Babel happens, we might want to focus our worries on something more disturbing than a grand supercycle bear market.
 
Very good points. Most bears claim that we are in a cyclical bull market inside a secular bear market. Keep'em thinking like that. I believe we are in back to back secular bull markets and that the bear market we had was a cyclical bear. And I got my money where my mouth is. Hope to hit $2.0M by the end of this year if Ferdinand doesn't buck me off.
 
I'm finally starting to understand your words, Birch. And the scary thing is... they are making sense to me.:blink:

Well, I woke up too late today to make any IFT. I would've made my IFT to the C Fund from the I Fund had I woken up earlier. For those of you thinking I just sleep late, I got home from work at 5am. Here's to hoping tonight's +FV still holds tomorrow!
 
Birchtree said:
Very good points. Most bears claim that we are in a cyclical bull market inside a secular bear market. Keep'em thinking like that. I believe we are in back to back secular bull markets and that the bear market we had was a cyclical bear. And I got my money where my mouth is. Hope to hit $2.0M by the end of this year if Ferdinand doesn't buck me off.
Click to expand...

I would interpret the same as you, Birchtree. From 1982 to 2000 looks like the first leg of a supercycle bull market. From 2000 to 2002/2003 looks like the "breather" or second wave. From then till who knows when is the third wave.
 
I also am holding 100% I fund. Hope this doesn't crumble into a thunderclap and an irreversible downward spiral...
 
That is one sadistic monkey - always in the fund that drops the most and always in the fund that jumps up the most. It's that absolute value thingy I added to it's decisions. I don't even need to check with the monkey to know it would still be recommending the I Fund.

Just as quickly as these pains come, the market makes a pop to hurt the wound of those who jump out after the pain. I congratulate those who can time those drops! Awesome job. I'm pretty lousy at predicting quick moves, so I just follow those crazy long-term monkeys. :D

On that note, I may end up with a new set of monkeys soon.
 
Fab,
Good luck!:)

fabijo said:
That is one sadistic monkey - always in the fund that drops the most and always in the fund that jumps up the most. It's that absolute value thingy I added to it's decisions. I don't even need to check with the monkey to know it would still be recommending the I Fund.

Just as quickly as these pains come, the market makes a pop to hurt the wound of those who jump out after the pain. I congratulate those who can time those drops! Awesome job. I'm pretty lousy at predicting quick moves, so I just follow those crazy long-term monkeys. :D

On that note, I may end up with a new set of monkeys soon.
Click to expand...
 
ChemEng said:
Any details about the selection criteria the new monkeys will use?
Click to expand...

Good question, Chem. In another post, I mentioned that I was looking into some of the open source software out there to see what foundations have already been laid. I've found a couple of programs that I need to stress test. I found a google group where people are collaborating on a project or two here:

http://groups.google.com/group/JavaTraders

I figured that much of the work has been done, so all I need to do is tweak it to fit my TSP needs. Since many technical indicators (MACD, RSI, etc) have already been coded into some of these programs, I can easily go through some backtests to see which strategy I'll use for the TSP monkeys.
 
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