fabijo's account talk

[I Got Robbed]

Dude, I just doubled my returns from -2% to -4%. The monkey does work!!!!! but I am going to stick to the plan and see if I could triple my returns. lolz. I think you are right; overtime the monkey will produce a greater return than of the fund with annual highest return.

 

[ChemEng]

Dude, I just doubled my returns from -2% to -4%. The monkey does work!!!!! but I am going to stick to the plan and see if I could triple my returns. lolz.

Im sorry. This just struck me as funny...

 

[fabijo]

Dude, I just doubled my returns from -2% to -4%. The monkey does work!!!!!

:laugh: Yup. Keep doubling it fast!

 

[fabijo]

Just ran the numbers by the monkey. It's finally deciding to stay for more than a day in the I fund. Holding my 100% I Fund position.

I believe I am down for the year so far. I'd like to see how this pain addicted monkey does by the end of the year.

 

[The_Technician]

Just ran the numbers by the monkey. It's finally deciding to stay for more than a day in the I fund. Holding my 100% I Fund position.

I believe I am down for the year so far. I'd like to see how this pain addicted monkey does by the end of the year.

My monkeys keep making suggestions too Fabijo......but I don't like pain......and I ain't suicidal......

 

[fabijo]

My monkeys keep making suggestions too Fabijo......but I don't like pain......and I ain't suicidal......

I don't like it, either, but using this approach for long term investing works itself out in the long run. The good thing about computers is that you can simulate different methods for all types of markets. After trying all kinds of methods from 1950 through today, this pain swallowing approach works best. Avoiding pain sometimes works short term, but sometimes keeps you out of gains. Over the long run, occasionally missing out on those gains really adds up to ALOT of missed gains.

I did a simple test the other day. From 1950 to now, the ratio of the number of days positive to the number of days negative is about 1.4. I forget the other numbers, but if you use more recent numbers like 1990 to now and 2003 to now, you end up with ratios of 3:1 to about 8:1. That is just the number of days positive gain/number of days negative gain. The other interesting stat is that the ratio of the %gain:%loss is also greater than 1. Combine those factors and you come up with this:

On any given day in the market, you have a greater chance of gain than loss.

The best way to "time" the market is to use long term moving averages to decide on the prevailing force. Right now, the long term is still a positive force. If you figure that we have such a strong positive force, but still had a "big" negative day, you might be able to predict some larger moves positive to balance out the ratio. That's what I'm afraid to miss out on. Tom's been saying that we haven't had a 10% correction in a while, but we also haven't had any eye-popping daily gains in quite a while. Wouldn't it be nice to have a 3,4, or 5% gain in a day???

 

[I Got Robbed]

Wouldn't it be nice to have a 3,4, or 5% gain in a day???

I dont know, I am getting so used to great losses, I really dont think I would be able to handle a gain that big.
The pain feels less and less as the amount of losses are smaller and smaller due to the decline of money in my account.
I am still sticking to the monkey, Monkey Theory all the way. By the way I am following the short term monkey and its telling me to go from 100% I to 100% S. I hope my monkey didnt catch a virus.

Looks like I am just gonna have to play the mega million today for early retirement!!!

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

My monkeys keep making suggestions too Fabijo......but I don't like pain......and I ain't suicidal......

I gotta go with Techy. Google "Long-Term Capitol Management" . One guy was a Noble prize winner for Economics, the others were Black and Scholes, creators of industry standard Black and Scholes Options Valuation formula. Swore their system was fail-safe. Ironically, I think it was the previous Asian contagion of 1988 that was the last straw.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

 

[fabijo]

I gotta go with Techy. Google "Long-Term Capitol Management" . One guy was a Noble prize winner for Economics, the others were Black and Scholes, creators of industry standard Black and Scholes Options Valuation formula. Swore their system was fail-safe. Ironically, I think it was the previous Asian contagion of 1988 that was the last straw.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

Thanks for the link, Futurestrader. I just read the article. I already understand that there are going to be big downside risks that happen rarely, but the reason they couldn't withstand the losses was because they were using leverage. We can't use leverage in our TSP accounts. The only way I could lose all my money in TSP is if the market is worth $0 - that and if I got in at the tops and out at the bottoms.

But since you bring up 1998, that is the year that the monkey's backtesting struggles with the most. The S&P rebounded nicely that year, ending the year with a 26% gain, but the DJ Wilshire 4500 ended with only a 7.6% gain.

When I go through the range of settings I go through each day for the monkey. It only manages returns ranging from 7.75% to 13.85% for that year. Maybe I should add a variable that says stick to the C Fund when Asia is acting whacky.

 

[fabijo]

I dont know, I am getting so used to great losses, I really dont think I would be able to handle a gain that big.
The pain feels less and less as the amount of losses are smaller and smaller due to the decline of money in my account.
I am still sticking to the monkey, Monkey Theory all the way. By the way I am following the short term monkey and its telling me to go from 100% I to 100% S. I hope my monkey didnt catch a virus.

Looks like I am just gonna have to play the mega million today for early retirement!!!

:laugh: Mr. Robbed, is that a picture of your dad on your avatar?

Which Excel sheet are you using? The one that uses the TSP prices or the one that uses the index prices?

 

[I Got Robbed]

I am using the one where I post the tsp price as "real price".:worried: and I just found some dudes pic online and used it as avatar. lolz.

 

[fabijo]

I am using the one where I post the tsp price as "real price".

Oh, okay. I use a bolder, braver monkey than that one. I'm surprised that it wants to go to S and I. I guess that means the price change was more than the limit I set that says something like, "Follow these rules, unless the price change deviates this fast."

 

[fabijo]

Just made my IFT to the S fund. Will be effective cob Monday. I hope that FV situation clears itself up by then!

 

[fabijo]

Cool. I just noticed that it says Team TSP under my name. Plus I need to make a random post to get rid of 666 being my number of posts!

 

[weatherweenie]

Cool. I just noticed that it says Team TSP under my name. Plus I need to make a random post to get rid of 666 being my number of posts!

You have arrived! :laugh:

 

[I Got Robbed]

the monkey is saying 100% F on Monday.

 

[ebbnflow]

Fabijo, during last year or other years, what percentage was your monkey in equities? I'm wondering if we can have good returns regardless of how much we spend being in stocks or safe haven. Just curious.

I have the ebbtracker probably being exposed to stocks about less than 60% this year.

 

[fabijo]

Ebb, the monkey I'm using now is the bravest one. It's been in equities since March 18, 2003 and hasn't indicated G or F yet. It will only consider G or F when the 75 day EMA is below the 180 day EMA. Since we have 3 different equity funds to choose from, the monkey can outperform buy and hold just by switching between those three funds.

Using the 3 day EMA on each index's price change, the monkey decides which one is moving faster and goes to it. It doesn't matter if it is moving down the fastest or up the fastest. As long as the 75 day EMA is greater than the 180 day EMA, it uses that rule. When the 75 day EMA is lower than the 180 EMA, it then goes to the fastest index when the 3 day EMA is above the 19 day EMA, otherwise it chooses between G and F. The only problem is that I don't have TSP data prior to June 2003, so I have no idea how the monkey would have done using the F Fund from 2000 to March 2003. But it still managed returns during those years. Here are some recent years monkey returns to look at:

2000: -6.362%
2001: 18.734%
2002: 11.296%
2003: 30.138%
2004: 28.242%
2005: 15.158%
2006: 38.280%
2007: -0.385%

 

[fabijo]

My favorite year to look at is 1995. That year, the monkey kept switching between the S&P 500 and the Wilshire 4500 to end the year with a 45% return. I can't wait till something like that happens again!!

 

[ebbnflow]

Thanks, fabijo! It shows that there really is more than one way to skin a cat.

Imagine that, 100% in equities for the whole year (actually, since 2003!) and through timing and favorable switching between funds (C, S and I), your monkeys are able to negate the effects of dips and semi-corrections.