fabijo's account talk

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Show-me said:
I'm going against my plan and went 50/25/25 G/C/I. I could not be more nervous.
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Well, I am glad there was a positive FV. I assumed it would happen because I assumed the Fed would keep rates the same. I'm afraid that we're entering into a situation similar to last May. I'm going against my monkeys and staying with G until the drop happens. There is just way too much negative divergence on the MACD and Chaikin Money Flow to keep this rally going much longer.

spx.neg.divergence.png
 
It is so tempting to beat myself over the head for jumping too soon and not listening to the monkeys. I gotta keep cool. In two weeks, I'll be done with these two college classes and I should have some time to work on the next version of the TSP monkey: Monkey Mayhem
 
from http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqMp4yS0JQdw :

bloomberg.com said:
The Treasury received bids for 2.97 times the $16 billion of three-year notes offered in yesterday's sale, the highest so- called bid-to-cover ratio since May 1998. Indirect bidders, the class that includes foreign central banks, bought 32.3 percent of the notes. The Treasury will also sell $13 billion of 10-year notes today $9 billion of 30-year debt tomorrow.
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I have no idea how Tom can stay out this long! I've only been in G fund for about a week and I am getting tired of watching the moves up. It's just killing me to be missing on the up moves. I should've just stuck to the plan.

:mad::mad: double mad
 
Tom will be in before Friday or on the Friday close. The bullish stampede is starting and will end in about six months with a crescendo.
 
Fab, what have the monkey's been saying. You stopped posting the readings after you followed your gut. Some of us are still interested in what you system is telling you even if you're not following it. Thx in advance.
 
fedgolfer said:
Fab, what have the monkey's been saying. You stopped posting the readings after you followed your gut. Some of us are still interested in what you system is telling you even if you're not following it. Thx in advance.
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Sorry, fed! Pretty selfish of me. I just quickly looked at it. I'll give the info tonight for tomorrow. I might just let the monkey hold my hand again anyway. They pretty much have been focused on the S and I all week. It's pretty easy to figure out what the monkeys want because they only jump onto the fastest moving fund. I guess defining the fastest can be the tricky part, because you can change the amount of days that it averages to figure out which is fastest. For this year, I've mostly been using an EMA setting of 1.13 days. It just seems to be working the best so far. Really, every day I go through changing the EMA from decimal values between 1 and 4. For the most part, the monkey will unchange its views on tomorrow's fund. But if it does waiver while I vary the range, then I'll consider going 50/50 between those two funds.

Well, I just finished looking at all the data and entering in all week's prices. It's hovering between S and I tomorrow. For those who don't like a bunch of moves, using a 3 day EMA has kept the monkey choosing S fund for almost two weeks straight. Using a shorter term EMA, the monkey wants the I fund tomorrow. The best returns last year for the monkey is using about a 3.75 day EMA, which would've given the monkey a 40% return for the year. Using the 3 day, the monkey would've gotten 38%. And a 1.13 day EMA would've squeaked out a measely 31% return for 2006.

When I told my wife last week that I ignored the monkey, I had a hard time explaining to her why.

"You were just telling me how much safer you feel following the monkey, and now you don't trust it?!"

"Well, I never put anything in the program to measure divergence on the MACD and Chaikin Money Flow." (just trying to explain that was nuts)

"Why didn't you just put it in the program?"

"I plan on it, but I just don't have the time."

"I don't understand why you went against your own program!"

We went over and over again the same circle of conversation for about ten minutes.
 
Well, I gave in to the monkey. Maybe I should start calling it a guerilla.

100% S tomorrow

I said it before, but I didn't listen to myself - It is more risky being out of the market than in.
 
I just realized something. I believe that I said in the beginning of the year that I'd let myself be the guinea pig to test my monkey tracking. So I spent a week and a half ignoring the monkeys.

Just to show that it is possible to still come out on top even after staying in the market through big moves down, I'll keep following my monkeys no matter how bad the market gets this year. I hope I didn't ruin the year by ignoring the monkey for a week! :)

(of course, it is easy to say all this on a weekend. Let's see what I'll be saying next week when I stumble upon some new "indicator" or article!)
 
As long as you have a system you believe in, and know it has a stable base to rely on, you can bungle and stumble your way to great gains this year -- at least that's what I did last year! :laugh:
 
fabijo said:
I just realized something. I believe that I said in the beginning of the year that I'd let myself be the guinea pig to test my monkey tracking. So I spent a week and a half ignoring the monkeys.

Just to show that it is possible to still come out on top even after staying in the market through big moves down, I'll keep following my monkeys no matter how bad the market gets this year. I hope I didn't ruin the year by ignoring the monkey for a week! :)

(of course, it is easy to say all this on a weekend. Let's see what I'll be saying next week when I stumble upon some new "indicator" or article!)
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Don't feel like you're the only one who is ignoring the monkeys...I did this week and I missed out on 1%.....being cautious is a good thing.....my monkeys are mostly right, just sometimes you know they will be wrong.....
 
nnuut said:
Watch-out this might be IT! But I really don't know:confused:
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True. I'm just tired of guessing anymore. If things don't work, I can blame the monkey. Oh wait. I created the monkey. Soon my creation will rebel against me and pounce on my back as I weep bitterly! :eek:
 
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