fabijo's account talk

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fabijo said:
One thing I forgot to mention about this monkey market. It is mostly meant to test a little theory I have. Those sudden market moves to the down (or up) seem to catch everybody by surprise. My little theory is that there may be some moments in the market where all these different strategies happen to merge together causing a strong force in one direction. It seems like the entire market is acting in unison to that direction and it seems like some coordinated effort, but I think that there are just times where a bunch of investing styles accidentally meet in the same direction. I'm hoping that my monkey market will stumble upon a similar scenario. Even if I give it some random starting data, I'd like to see if the monkey market would produce a market that looks real with its sudden drops out of the blue.
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Your ideas about looking for a "coordinated effort" seem very interesting to me, especially since I seem to like to follow "conspiracy theories" wherever I find them, LOL.

I thought this paragraph below from Griffin's account talk was very insightful. May be elementary for others but I really like his definitions for the different categories of aggressiveness. Seems like that would fit into a nice logic for a program (somehow..) .

Griffin said:
LOL -
<..snip..>

Since abandoning my original plan for this year, I decided to go back to the old methodology but use "the matrix" to control my approach between a highly aggressive approach (hold stocks when the market is toppy and buy on the expectation of support) versus a low aggressive approach (sell the rally at the first sign of topping and wait for retests before buying bottoms). I base my decisions to move or stay on how aggressive I think I should be. This is basically a low, medium, high (and very high = buy and hold). Yesterday I was on high, now I'm on low and will remain so long enough to give our new model a fair shake at predicting the next pullback (two weeks or so). This is why I expect to sell tomorrow, but I wasn't about to give up on what looks to be a no-brainer (sugarandspice for CEO :D ) move.
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ayla said:
Your ideas about looking for a "coordinated effort" seem very interesting to me, especially since I seem to like to follow "conspiracy theories" wherever I find them, LOL.

I thought this paragraph below from Griffin's account talk was very insightful. May be elementary for others but I really like his definitions for the different categories of aggressiveness. Seems like that would fit into a nice logic for a program (somehow..) .
Click to expand...

Just today I was thinking that instead of trying to get all the monkeys to predict a price, I could get them to decide what price they are willing to buy at and when they are planning to sell. From the coordinated efforts of all the monkeys, the pompous monkey will know all the stops and triggers of each monkey. With that data, it would make a prediction of how much the market will move the next couple of days.
 
fabijo said:
Just today I was thinking that instead of trying to get all the monkeys to predict a price, I could get them to decide what price they are willing to buy at and when they are planning to sell. From the coordinated efforts of all the monkeys, the pompous monkey will know all the stops and triggers of each monkey. With that data, it would make a prediction of how much the market will move the next couple of days.
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I got two monkeys, one on each Crystal Ball.....one tells me one thang by jumping funny :nuts: and the other gives me signals by what he sings :blink: .....I'm the pompous one that makes the final decisions :worried: .....it must be working out ok for my monkeys for this year, my return is better.....

I told them I would just have to let the lion eat them if they didn't get the song and dance right.....:sick:
 
The_Technician said:
.....I'm the pompous one that makes the final decisions :worried: .....
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:laugh: I tried playing the role of the pompous monkey (I guess no matter how you look at it, I ultimately make the decision) - but that just doesn't seem to work. My logic and emotions just don't seem to agree with how the market really is.
 
FYI, both of my monkeys want the S Fund, of course. The masochist monkey has been in the S since Friday, while the scared monkey is a little late. He's going to be leaving the F and just getting into the S tomorrow.
 
fabijo said:
FYI, both of my monkeys want the S Fund, of course. The masochist monkey has been in the S since Friday, while the scared monkey is a little late. He's going to be leaving the F and just getting into the S tomorrow.
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Out of curiosity, what does your monkeying around return for the last 21 days????
 
fabijo said:
I'll have to check on that later. I'm not at my computer with my spreadsheet. But are you asking what MY returns have been or what the monkey's returns have been?
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If you would use your monkey to back check the returns it called for in the recent past....it may be 4-5% or so....
 
Whew! Just got my homework submitted 2.5 minutes before the deadline. Crazy C++ class. Anyway, just a note that the monkeys are all happy with the S fund still.

Tech - I still haven't checked about how much I would've gotten in the past 21 days. I can easily tweak the monkeys and they give me different results over any period. For example, if I kept the settings the same as what would've given a 40% return last year, I would only be at .8% this year. Seeing what it did in just a short time doesn't make or break a monkey. I've been using the monkey setting that only gave about 30% last year - those settings are doing better this year (somewhere in the 2-3% range).

No matter how I tweak the settings, the monkeys are still just market followers. I hope that by the end of this year, I'll have market "makers."
 
Oooh. That nice fast moving down with the S&P 500 is begging for my monkey's attention. That's where I'm going cob tomorrow - C Fund.
 
Of course, all that fast action down for the EAFE sent my monkeys all over it. I just made an IFT to I, effective cob 1/29/2007
 
fabijo said:
It's a bit scary following a system that chases the big losses, but it just seems to work itself out.
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Looks like I'm still ahead of the S-Fund for the year. I just looked at Rokid's tracker for the week and noticed that the I fund was number one last year. Is that true? Nobody beat the top performing fund for the year?? Can we do it this year? Let's go TSP Talkers. I'm sure some of us are bound to do it.
 
Despite all the monkeys telling me to go the S fund, I'm gonna hang out in I at least one more day - partly because the tsp website is acting slow, and I also have little time. busy busy busy
 
fabijo said:
Despite all the monkeys telling me to go the S fund, I'm gonna hang out in I at least one more day - partly because the tsp website is acting slow, and I also have little time. busy busy busy
Click to expand...

TSP.gov is working fine. I made my IFT to the S fund for tomorrow. That S fund is doing pretty good so far this year.
 
I just committed the ultimate sin against the monkeys. 100% G cob today.
How dare I attempt to use some thought to trading! I hope it isn't a mistake to disobey the monkey once in a while.


The monkeys would have gone to S yesterday and stayed through today.
 
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