fabijo's account talk

[fabijo]

Fabijo, I just saw the new tally for the new year. Your monkeys are leading the pack! Congrats.

Well, it's too soon to get all excited. We're only one week into the year. Also, I made a mistake with the monkey machine and it just happened to work out to my advantage. I somehow put in the wrong I fund price a couple of days ago, so the monkeys stayed in the F fund. When I realized the error and put in the right I fund price, the monkeys would've went to the I fund. Somehow luck just beats logic.

 

[fabijo]

I somehow put in the wrong I fund price a couple of days ago, so the monkeys stayed in the F fund. When I realized the error and put in the right I fund price, the monkeys would've went to the I fund. Somehow luck just beats logic.

Okay, I just read all the posts dedicated to this issue. Seems I was not crazy when I put in the TSP prices, because they changed the price on us. That's one way to really screw us up.

 

[fabijo]

Here we go. I'm going with the very bullish monkey. As long as the 75 day EMA is above the 180 day EMA for the S&P 500, the monkey will choose between the C, S, or I. That means the monkey would never have gone to the G or F in the past 3 1/2 years. The monkey jumped around between S&P, DJ Wilshire, EAFE during this past May/June/July fiasco and still ended the year with over 40% return.

It looks like we are riding the top of a trading channel, but what the heck. I'm going to the S fund anyway. This crazy monkey loves to stay in the market.

 

[350zCommTech]

I'm going to the S fund anyway. This crazy monkey loves to stay in the market.

I'm thinking about doing the same thing. Just curious, what's your return since you have been following the monkey?

 

[James48843]

OK fabijo- I'll bite.

I'll watch your monkey for a while, and see where it goes.

Are you now following the monkey machine in your account?

 

[fabijo]

I'm thinking about doing the same thing. Just curious, what's your return since you have been following the monkey?

I've only followed the MACD monkey since December 1. I'll have to look at my records later on. I don't think it was anything special.

Starting today, I'll be using the Bull monkey. The one that stays in either C, S, or I as long as the 75EMA is above the 180EMA

 

[fabijo]

Just curious, what's your return since you have been following the monkey?

Well, 350z, since November 30 (my first transaction after the monkey) , my return has been a measely little .57%, just above the G fund! My losses took place because the monkey would get out of the market at any sign of negative movement. At least the 2007 monkey will stay in the C, S, or I as long as the S&P 500 has the 75 day Exponential Moving Average above the 200 day EMA.

 

[fabijo]

The fearless monkey is going to the I fund tomorrow.

Are you now following the monkey machine in your account?

I am, but I've been changing the monkey's behavior over the past month and now am satisfied with the bullish one.

 

[The_Technician]

The fearless monkey is going to the I fund tomorrow.



I am, but I've been changing the monkey's behavior over the past month and now am satisfied with the bullish one.

I see your new monkey system has seen what mine seen since the 5th.....but I was reluctant to jump because it hadn't shown any stability, good thing, it dropped on Monday....

I am considering to jump in today though, but I will watch the morning action to make the final decision.... I still think we might be in a head fake situation....

 

[fabijo]

I see your new monkey system has seen what mine seen since the 5th.....but I was reluctant to jump because it hadn't shown any stability, good thing, it dropped on Monday....

I am considering to jump in today though, but I will watch the morning action to make the final decision.... I still think we might be in a head fake situation....

My monkey doesn't really do much predicting. I tried using predictions, but I haven't mastered that method yet. Here are the rules the monkey goes by:

If S&P 75EMA > 200EMA, then pick c,s,i (chooses by which one has the fastest movement either up or down in past couple of days), else
if S&P 3EMA > 19EMA, then pick c,s,i, else
if S&P recently dropped more than 2.6% in a day, then pick c,s,i, else
pick g or f (based on f's movements over past week or so)

That's it. Everything is based on where the S&P is at.

 

[The_Technician]

My monkey doesn't really do much predicting. I tried using predictions, but I haven't mastered that method yet. Here are the rules the monkey goes by:

If S&P 75EMA > 200EMA, then pick c,s,i (chooses by which one has the fastest movement either up or down in past couple of days), else
if S&P 3EMA > 19EMA, then pick c,s,i, else
if S&P recently dropped more than 2.6% in a day, then pick c,s,i, else
pick g or f (based on f's movements over past week or so)

That's it. Everything is based on where the S&P is at.

Interesting, my monkey grinder (a.k.a. The Crystal Ball) is telling me to not get in the CS today, but it is on its ins and outs to the I fund as levels are checked this morning....since the I fund has been recommended for the previous two days and is high in its short term channel, I tend to believe not getting in....but however, I may consider the F fund....

 

[fabijo]

I just went through today's data. I'm staying in the I Fund through tomorrow. I'm amazed at how the monkey is drawn towards fast movement. It could care less if the movement is up or down. It goes through negative months and comes out positive, jumping around the CSI, constantly seeking to be in the fastest fund, whether that fund is fastest in a downward direction or fastest in an upward direction. I'm still scratching my head at how it manages to do that. I actually think our delay in IFT is helping to increase returns.

 

[I Got Robbed]

I was going to get out of I after the long ride down, but oh well. I'll just let myself enjoy the ride. I gotta stop making decisions out of fear and greed. My fear is telling me to get out, but that was the same thing telling me to get in just before the big drop. This year is one of the toughest learning experiences in my life. Hey, I still got at least 25 years left. That should be long enough for it to recover!

I have been prairie dogging for 3 dayz!!! sure am getting unbelievable returns !!

 

[fabijo]

I have been prairie dogging for 3 dayz!!! sure am getting unbelievable returns !!

Prairie dogging. :laugh:

 

[fabijo]

The pain addicted monkey wants to stay in the I fund for tomorrow. I'll obey the monkey on my back.

 

[Birchtree]

If the high euro exchange rate is driving both exports and gross domestic product down, then the exchange rate is too high - but I don't see that happening. It has taken a surprisingly long time for a normal export led recovery to take hold. Bloomberg was saying tonight that the VAT in Germany has been accepted by consumers and that their spending will pick up. The biggest risk to the euro land recovery would be another jump in oil prices that would spark fear of inflation and reduce consumer confidence. With oil at the $54.00 range I think Europe is a green light for the next 12 months.

 

[fabijo]

Birch, thanks for the encouragement. Your comments have remained bullish, but I haven't seen much of your extreme bullish comments lately - where'd they go? Do I sense a little uncertainty?

 

[Birchtree]

No sir, no uncertainty in the bullish perspective. But once you get to where you wanted to go - you have to start over for the next level. I'm waiting on Dow Theory Primary buy confirmation and the EW Primary wave 3 of Cycle wave 3 to set. When that happens in comes the public and who knows where the top will terminate - the Ducati and I will ride all the bumps. Good to see you hold your positions. Snort.

 

[fabijo]

Good to see you hold your positions. Snort.

I'm only holding because I created a new monkey. This one is addicted to pain. The monkey I created last month would've done pretty bad over the past 57 years. It was too cautious and would've jumped out of the I fund the moment it saw a drop. The new monkey is a monster and jumps at the chance to suffer extreme blows in a bull market, because he knows that if he gets out, he'll miss the jumps up. (oo oo ah ah - Monkey talking)

 

[fabijo]

With the big 1.07% move up in the S fund today, the monkey is a little sad he missed it, so he asked me to send him to the S tomorrow. With any luck, internationals will go up tonight, dollar down, then an american profit taking happens tomorrow so I can get in the S cheap and out of the I expensive.