fabijo's account talk

[Wolverine]

The market has spoken - we have already seen the bottom. Don Wolanchuck and Tim Ord are saying the biggest up day in history can come at any time. I just can't forget the power off to the upside in July '02 on the first bottom - back to back almost with 400 point days.

Interesting thought with how this thing could just do that to the upside at anytime now.

Being out as of now is my concern in regards to something like that happening to the upside.

Since I got out at the top and have made some money since, I just wonder if I should just get back in and take what comes, good or bad.

To miss a major upside by being out would not make for happy brain cells. But to be out and miss a major downside would make for happy brain cells.

Decisions, Decisions

 

[VirginiaBob]

go in partially.

 

[Birchtree]

Not puny if you look at sentiment variables - and besides as we continue to move toward the epicenter of primary 3 corrections will tend to be harder, faster, and set spectacular bottoms in which to move up aggressively. This time in space is different - we got a bull market that has time to run with all the global liquidity. When is the last time you saw a TRIN of 16 or a 99% down day in the SPX. It's going to be exciting - and I'm in for the ride.

 

[Wolverine]

go in partially.

Thanks for your thought with this.....................I think it will be a consideration for sure. I tend to want to go 100% in but, doing this partially I think for now would keep my thinking clearer and all.

 

[Birchtree]

That's what I'm doing with the I fund - nibble on the way up and nibble on the way down. I caught a $21.65 and a $22.04 for a grand 4%. But I'm in no hurry with 96% C fund - got until 2010 when the next 4 year cycle arrives.

 

[Wolverine]

That's what I'm doing with the I fund - nibble on the way up and nibble on the way down. I caught a $21.65 and a $22.04 for a grand 4%. But I'm in no hurry with 96% C fund - got until 2010 when the next 4 year cycle arrives.

Yes, a nibble here and a nibble there may be the thing for me.

A major learning curve taking place with all this for me also.

Caution and CP is of importance as I see it now day to day.

Thanks for the input.

 

[fabijo]

The monkey is wobbling between the three equity funds. I don't like sitting still in one fund, but I'll hold off one more day by holding my S Fund for at least one more day. I'm betting on the dollar inching up tomorrow and Tuesday, so I'll most likely be making an IFT to the I Fund on Monday night to be effective cob Tuesday.

On Tuesday, we'll have some housing starts and building permits numbers coming out. The dollar index looks like a head and shoulders pattern. The timing is perfect because of the announcement on Wednesday from the Feds. Will they raise/lower/keep rates? We've also got crude inventories coming out on that same day. Sounds like a lot of fun this week.

Given that, it looks like we could get some woes this week. That's perfectly fine with me. Monday's probably gonna be up for all indices, Tuesday down, Wednesday dollar will drop because of keeping rates the same.

The market will react how it wants to react to the news on Wednesday. The Fed might speak of a slowing economy and send the markets twirling down. But because we expect that, it might just do the opposite. I just like to think of Fed days as more volatile days. It doesn't quite matter what is said, but what matters is what bias the market has right now. If there is a downward bias, we'll move down. If there's an upward bias, we'll move up.

 

[fabijo]

Come on, S Fund! Let's keep going! Can we hit 2% today? That would be sweet. Depending on how things look tonight, I might be jumping over to the I fund tomorrow to catch a possible drop in the dollar on Wednesday. I know I'm playing with fire and that the F Fund will be safer, but who said anything about being safe?

 

[fabijo]

In accordance with the monkey's request, I made my IFT to the I Fund to be effective close of business tomorrow.

Nikkei is going up fast! Too fast! slow down! I want to get on the internationals on a breather.

 

[fabijo]

Here's the weekly chart for the S&P 500 covering the past 4 years. So far, it looks like the prior resistance from the past 4 years is quite possibly serving as support. Now I know we keep having talk about the lack of a 10% correction in a while. If this former resistance is going to serve as support in the coming years, we might be in for a wild ride. We'll get those 10% or more corrections, but we'll also have some skyrocketing bull runs. What we saw from 1995 to 2000 was definitely a bull market, but it was also full of volitile swings to the downside. If we really want the big moves up, we'll have to be willing to live through the big moves down. We got a taste of it in the past few weeks.

Imagine how you would feel if the market just started to climb, and climb, and climb, and climb. Each time a slight pullback starts to occur, you might be tempted to jump out because of the impending pullback. But then you see it climb and climb and climb. The moment you decide to get back in, the market just loses 5 to 6 % in one day. Then up 2 to 3 % the next, then down, then up. You'll just have to make sure you've got that rope tied tight around your hand as you try to hold on for that 8 seconds. The chart:

 

[Birchtree]

Those were good years for a buy and holder to accumulate shares to build a solid position. You can't make money on percentages - you need shares.

 

[Dodge_Em]

Fabijo: Each time a slight pullback starts to occur, you might be tempted to jump out because of the impending pullback. But then you see it climb and climb and climb. The moment you decide to get back in, the market just loses 5 to 6 % in one day.

This is exactly what happened to me in February.

 

[fabijo]

Okay, I just made my IFT back to the S Fund to take place tomorrow. Markets all around will probably be up, but I expect the dollar will take a hit tomorrow after the Fed announcement at 2:15ET. Since that is after the foreign markets are closed, there will most likely be a positive FV (if, of course, the markets stay on an upward course AND the dollar takes a hit). There are no certainties, but that's where I'm putting my money.

The monkey just continuously gravitates towards the S Fund. Maybe the S Fund and the monkey are secret buddies.

 

[fabijo]

Okay, I just made my IFT back to the S Fund to take place tomorrow. Markets all around will probably be up, but I expect the dollar will take a hit tomorrow after the Fed announcement at 2:15ET. Since that is after the foreign markets are closed, there will most likely be a positive FV (if, of course, the markets stay on an upward course AND the dollar takes a hit). There are no certainties, but that's where I'm putting my money.

I'm going to hold the S Fund today, even though I didn't get a chance to check with the monkey. I'm glad that little play worked out to collect the positive FV. I won't be going to the F or G for a long while if I continue to follow the rules of the monkey. I like the rules, because it is kind of like a buy and hold strategy, but keeps switching between the volatile equities. It's as if it is its own volatile fund that has big gains as well as big losses, but in the end it brings out a better return than holding any of the funds.

 

[fabijo]

Very nice! Looks like the C fund is going to be cheaper today. I just had a few minutes to run yesterday's closing prices by the monkey. The S&P 500 is moving up in the volatility world.

I made my IFT to the C fund to be effective at today's closing.

 

[Dodge_Em]

I think you were the only one with the guts to stay "All In". I just stepped in a bit with 20%

Good Luck!!!

 

[fabijo]

I think you were the only one with the guts to stay "All In". I just stepped in a bit with 20%

Good Luck!!!

It's getting easier to just stay dumb and follow a suicidal system.

And I'm going back to 100% S fund from the C Fund. Just dumb luck worked for me yesterday by being in the S for that little 4 penny gain. Maybe the C fund will do something similar today, where I can buy the S Fund at a cheaper price.

 

[TRUEHONEST]

I am using my spreed sheet to calculate my move.

Question:

How can I copy the exact variable =d4 to 1 whole column without changing the variable? Everytime I copy & paste =d4 to 1 whole column, it becomes =d1,=d2,=d3 and etc... to its respective rows.

Thanks.

 

[fabijo]

Question:

How can I copy the exact variable =d4 to 1 whole column without changing the variable? Everytime I copy & paste =d4 to 1 whole column, it becomes =d1,=d2,=d3 and etc... to its respective rows.

Thanks.

You have a couple of options. The easiest way is to name that cell. Click on it, then go to the Insert menu, then Name, then Define. From there you'll have a dialog letting you name the cell. If you named it "variable", then all you need to do is put =variable in one cell. When you copy and paste, all the cells that you paste to will have =variable.

Another option is if you want =d4 in a bunch of cells, you could put:
=indirect("D"&4)

the indirect command works for some odd situations that I've needed badly. Let's say I want to experiment with averages, but I want to easily change how many cells are being averaged (like changing the value for a moving average). I can name a cell "variable" and it has the number 20 for me to get the 20 day moving average. Normally, to average a group of cells like A4 to A23, I would put
=average(a4:a23)

Let's say I want the B column to be the moving average of the A column. In the B23 cell, I could put:

=average(indirect("A"&row()-variable):A23)

If I copied that into column B, only the A23 would be changed for each B. Then I can change "variable" whenever I want and immediately get averages in the B column for different number of cells.

 

[TRUEHONEST]

I am using my spreed sheet to calculate my move.

Question:

How can I copy the exact variable =d4 to 1 whole column without changing the variable? Everytime I copy & paste =d4 to 1 whole column, it becomes =d1,=d2,=d3 and etc... to its respective rows.

Thanks.

Thanks for answering so quickly and giving tips and solutions for my problem. It saved me a lot of time doing my Artificial Intelligent Criss-Crossing System Program. :nuts: