fabijo's account talk

[fabijo]

Thanks, fabijo! It shows that there really is more than one way to skin a cat.

Imagine that, 100% in equities for the whole year (actually, since 2003!) and through timing and favorable switching between funds (C, S and I), your monkeys are able to negate the effects of dips and semi-corrections.

There really is more than one way. I would prefer to avoid the big dips so that the returns are maximized. During those dips, the monkey loses lots of percentage because it is going to the fastest fund - which is usually going down fastest. Whenever I try to come up with a quick method for the monkey to get out before major dips, it also gets out on those whipsaws. Over time, those whipsaws add up, making the monkey have less of a return than if he just rode the waves down.

 

[fabijo]

I just thought I'd see if I can spread more fear by reposting this image that was posted back in September by genod:

Got it from the thread here:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=3313

 

[fabijo]

Ouch. Today hurt. Sticking with the plan. Holding 100% S fund.

 

[fabijo]

Ouch. Today hurt. Sticking with the plan. Holding 100% S fund.

Well, at least the monkey picked the one that had the biggest gain today - unless we are expecting a positive FV on the I fund. I'll have to go check what the monkey wants to do tomorrow.

 

[Rod]

Well, at least the monkey picked the one that had the biggest gain today

For sure!

 

[fabijo]

I'm wondering about this correction. Seems many on the board are assuming last week's drop will be followed by a nice rally (maybe only today), then continue the drop. Seems we hold that basic assumption because "that's what the market tends to do."

They say that once a pattern is noticed, it is too late. I just might keep that in mind when I get deep into programming the ultimate market monkey. The moment the monkey sees a pattern, then it should do the opposite of the pattern, because the market does what we do not expect. But then that is a pattern, too. AAAAHHHH, it's an endless loop!

 

[fabijo]

The monkey is torn between all three indices. If I keep it with the parameters that give it the best returns for 2007, it wants the S Fund. If I keep it with what has worked over the longer term, it is a hairline between the C Fund and the I Fund.

I kind of like the idea of the C Fund. It is lagging the most as far as returns for the year. I don't want to go to the I Fund because that has a big +FV applied to it.

Well, I just hopped over to the TSP website and made the IFT to the C Fund. I don't like going 50/50, so I just decided to go with the longer term monkey on this one.

 

[fabijo]

The monkey wants to go to the I fund, but I'll hang out in C at least one more day. Since the C Fund tends to give a quick burst one day then push its way a few days later, the monkey hasn't been that great jumping on the C Fund in time to catch the big up days. I have a pretty good feeling about large caps this year (especially since reading that post from elgallo in the other thread).

 

[ebbnflow]

Fabijo, you can check the photobucket link anytime after 9:00 PM for the ebbtracker updates. Spaf was able to edit the ebbchart to link to your server instead of photobucket, so that should be visible for people at their workplace. The spinning dollars are working from your server, also. Thanks again.

 

[fabijo]

Monkey says go to I Fund. I'm just gonna hold my C Fund.

 

[fabijo]

Now the Monkey wants a piece of the S Fund action. I'll leave the C Fund lilly pad and go to the S Fund.

Yup, that's right. I'm calling the C Fund the lilly pad.

 

[fabijo]

Wowsers! My monkey is just sick. Sick, sick, sick. I need to get working on the four-butt monkey to improve upon this twisted two-butt monkey. I think that until then, I'll follow my monkey except on days when ebbs tracker shows two or more reds!

In that case, I'm making an IFT to the G Fund effective cob tomorrow, then switching to whatever the monkey says today, which is the S Fund.

 

[fabijo]

I think that until then, I'll follow my monkey except on days when ebbs tracker shows two or more reds!

In that case, I'm making an IFT to the G Fund effective cob tomorrow, then switching to whatever the monkey says today, which is the S Fund.

Ahh. What the heck. I can handle more bloodshed. I cancelled my IFT request and am sticking with the S Fund.

 

[fabijo]

Monkey wants to go to I, but that's only because of the delay of the international markets. I'll hold S Fund a little longer.

 

[fabijo]

Monkeys are bouncing between S and I. I'll keep the S holdings at 100%!

I finally feel like people are shook up. That's definitely good. The market is a wild beast, we aren't supposed to have it figured out. Though today was up, it was on low volume, so there will probably be some more down days ahead, but I won't get out. When it starts going up, it will probably shoot like a rocket above the former resistance line that was developed over the past few years:

 

[nnuut]

Now draw another line accross the bottoms, 1st hit May of 2005 then Nov. 2005 through the bottom of May 2007. HHHHUMMM is that the bottom?:worried: Looks like 1320 to me! GOOD CHART!

 

[fabijo]

Ahh, who cares about bottoms? I'm worried about tops! :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

The market has spoken - we have already seen the bottom. Don Wolanchuck and Tim Ord are saying the biggest up day in history can come at any time. I just can't forget the power off to the upside in July '02 on the first bottom - back to back almost with 400 point days.

 

[nnuut]

Ahh, who cares about bottoms? I'm worried about tops! :nuts:

You must be a TOP Man, I'm a BOTTOM Man!

 

[fabijo]

I just can't forget the power off to the upside in July '02 on the first bottom - back to back almost with 400 point days.

You gotta admit that those jumps up were after months of serious drops. The down days we have experienced these past few weeks are puny compared to what was going on then.