Epic's Account Talk

[Epic]

Don't be so hard on yourself. The rally is always behind you. We never know what's in front of us.

​Yes, very true. Also, the slow climb up takes a lot more nerve to risk it all in this unpredictable economy, the way things happen just with someone's tone of voice (hawkish/dovish). Big losses can happen hard and fast. It all depends on how much your willing to risk it. I'm still not that confident in the way things are going. Still too sketchy for me.
Just look at futures this morning. Asia tanked overnight. That's gonna have an impact. I'm sure.....
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

 

[Epic]

https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

 

[Epic]

Good morning. Here you go. Check Coolhand for his analysis of the NAAIM readings.
https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

 

[Epic]

​Jobs Report this morning. Nothing major in either direction. Just kinda meh..... Steady as she goes I guess. :dunno:
The most hires were in Gov. :suspicious: followed by Health Care at #2.
Something that caught my ear was that many of the Talking Heads reporting on this were saying they expected NO Rate Hike in September. I guess we'll wait and see.....
Also, hourly wages went up just a tad, but the hours worked per week slipped to just about 34 instead of a full 40. When you decrease your hours but still make the same, then naturally your hourly rate will show an increase, right??? So your not earning more, your just working less........:blink:

The U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs in July, fewer than expected
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/04/jobs-report-july-2023-187000-jobs-in-july.html

 

[Epic]

10 minutes till the Open........ YUK
https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

 

[Epic]

S-Fund now below the gap and (more importantly) below the lower Bollinger Band. Hmmmm....... :scratchchin:

. :blink:

 

[Epic]

Has to be one of the craziest Up and Down days I've seen in quite a while. Hope things calm down a bit. :ugh::ugh1:

 

[Epic]

This mornings CPI in at 3.2%
Inflation: Consumer prices rise 3.2% in July as inflation slowdown stalls >>>>> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/infl...y-as-inflation-slowdown-stalls-123122066.html


Also something to look forward to:
The 2023 Economic Policy Symposium. "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy," will be held Aug. 24-26. / Jackson Hole Economic SymposiumThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts dozens of central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world at its annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/jackson-hole-economic-symposium/

 

[Epic]

Looks like Day 3 of the S-Fund breaching the Lower Bollinger Band. Also, I think today or maybe tomorrow if both Slow Stochastic readings stay below 20 three days in a row, that indicates it being embedded to the downside. I'd have to go back and check to be sure.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DWCPF&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p38582137931&a=947506571

 

[Epic]

Keeping a close eye on S-Fund for what I think might be the next leg higher, but there's something about all 4 Funds going strait up at the same time (including F-Fund) that makes me a bit nervous in general. That's just not normal behavior. :worried: I do think S-Fund will have another run up that could be significant, but trying to time that correctly is a challenge.

 

[WorkFE]

but there's something about all 4 Funds going strait up at the same time (including F-Fund) that makes me a bit nervous in general. That's just not normal behavior.

 

[Epic]

By "normal" (at least my understanding), I mean stocks and bonds typically don’t move in the same direction—when stocks go up, bonds usually go down, and when stocks go down, bonds usually go up.
As with everything, there are exceptions, as covered here >>>>> https://econofact.org/when-do-stocks-and-bonds-move-together-and-why-does-it-matter
:nuts:

 

[WorkFE]

The straight up reference through me off, seems to trending flat lately.
Bonds going up are in line with recent rate hikes while stocks are in relation to earnings and buying.
You are mostly correct, it's somewhat abnormal. Except when's the last time we tried to cool inflation this aggresively?
1990 maybe.

 

[Epic]

The straight up reference through me off, seems to trending flat lately.

​Agreed. Sorry for the confusion. I was just referring to the fund action of all 4 just before the noon cut-off yesterday when they all bounced significantly to the up side for some crazy reason.
That kinda stuff makes me a little nervous...... LOL :worried::nuts:

 

[Epic]

​Just a close-up. Day 6 of S-Fund breaching the lower Bollinger Band (in Blue). Also, Slow Stochastic at the lowest reading in over 4 months.
The rubber band just keeps stretching tighter and tighter........ :blink:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

 

[Epic]

Just an FYI.
I had 2 upcoming events in mind that could affect the market. Options Expiration for this month and Jackson Hole which starts on the 24th.
Now there's possibly 3 with the addition of a possible Downgrade of the Banking System. If Fitch decides to goes through with this, I can't imagine that it will be a good thing in any way...... Sheeeesh :worried:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/15/fitch-warns-it-may-be-forced-to-downgrade-dozens-of-banks.html

Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade dozens of banks, including JPMorgan Chase

1) Fitch Ratings cut its assessment of the banking industry’s health in June, a move that analyst Chris Wolfe said went largely unnoticed because it didn’t trigger downgrades on banks.
2) But another one-notch downgrade of the industry’s score from AA- to A+ would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 U.S. banks it covers, Wolfe told CNBC.
3) “If we were to move it to A+, then that would recalibrate all our financial measures and would probably translate into negative rating actions,” Wolfe said.

Also here's some morning Pomboy from 6 days ago. She's been warning of possible negative Banking issues for some time now.
She always offers great insight. HERE >>>>>>> https://youtu.be/rluVAtCsUVM?t=107

 

[Epic]

Good morning. Here you go. Check Coolhand for his analysis of the NAAIM readings.
https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

 

[Epic]

I'm a car guy, so I found this kind of interesting.
In short: He's a very small used car dealer in NC. He doesn't promote his business at all, but just offers a behind the scenes look what he see's at some of the auctions he goes to.
He say's in the past few months, Big Bank Repo's (Wells Fargo, Capital One, Etc....) have almost quadrupled at these auctions because of inflation and people not being able to make the payments.
Challenger's, Charger's, Tesla's, high end Trucks, etc..... Most all in nice shape with relatively low to average miles.
This is happening now in the Car Market where things happen rather quickly if you miss a payment or two. Will this same thing trickle down into the Housing Market next???????
Here's the link > > > > > https://www.youtube.com/@carquestionsanswered/videos
Have fun ......

 

[Epic]

I remember years ago when the Chinese Market turned into a bloodbath, and dragged the world economy down with it. I was still working and fully invested with my TSP, and stayed in way too long thinking "Ahh, this will turn around any day now"........but it never did, and I lost my a$$. Took forever to dig back out of that hole, but I did it.
This is what Ira Epstein is calling "The slow motion implosion of China", referring to the Evergrande Bankruptcy collapse.
Here >>>>> https://jingdaily.com/evergrande-collapse-china-economy-and-consumer-sentiment/
Could this turn into the same style of event that drags the World Economy down with it??? I sure hope not, but it may if China doesn't do something quickly to turn this around before things get super ugly. :worried:

 

[Epic]

​In addition to my post below, here's a market dude who devoted the full hour of this (just uploaded) vid to just China, and what's been happening this past week. Strait forward and lots of information covered. Very well done with graphs, charts and news headlines.
Here >>>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_wiYXNADzg
China Drags Global Markets Down As Half-Measure Policies Prove To Be Ineffective