01/13/26
Stocks opened on Monday morning with steep losses after the overnight futures market tried to decipher the drama between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve. By the close the dust had settled and it seems they put this in the category of noise, and stocks bounced back to close with moderate gains. The I-fund led and the F-fund posted a small loss.
Reminder: I have some personal plans this week so the commentaries may be a little brief, and I may not respond to emails as quickly as I'd normally like to. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.
Just hitting the basics today:
The S&P 500 (C-fund) made yet another new high and it has been able to maintain the breakout above the inverted head and shoulders pattern for a second straight day. I like to see 3 to 5 to days above resistance to confirm a breakout, and I will respect that, but this has been such a clear cut inverse H&S breakout that it would be tough to argue against the bullish side.
The bull flag on the 10-year Treasury Yield has been holding relentlessly. Based on that flag, I would expect this to eventually break to the upside, but in the short-term it could move back to the bottom again if the flag wants to remain intact a while longer. A break to the upside could slow down the small caps and the S-fund, which is currently the leader in 2026.
Speaking of the small caps, the Russell 2000 chart looks great but it is up a against some resistance in the short-term after the 7-day rally off the 50-day average.
We'll get CPI inflation (Consumer prices) data today (Tuesday), followed by the PPI (Wholesale prices) report on Wednesday.
Admin note: We plan to have annual subscription sale during the week of January 19 - 23. More details to follow but we did move upcoming expiring annual subscription dates out until that day so you can renew that week without a lapse. As always, if you have an annual subscription that does not expire this month, or if you want to convert a monthly subscription to annual, the sale will allow you to tack on another year to your current subscriptions at the sale price. Also, we are considering a price increase after the sale, so this will lock in the lower price. As you can imagine, the costs of doing business has gone up quite a bit in the last 20 years and the TSP Talk Plus and Revshark premium service prices have remained the same since the day they started. A cure for that would be more subscribers so, spread the word and we may leave prices alone. That's a bribe.
DWCPF (S-fund) chart looks fantastic. Is it too good since everyone is getting onboard the small caps train?
The ACWX (I-fund index) also made a new high and led the TSP Funds again, making a case that this fund is not phased by the recent rally in the dollar.
BND (bonds / F-fund) continues to run the clock as it coils up for some kind of bigger move. The jobs report couldn't break the deadlock. Will today's CPI report or tomorrow's PPI?
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks opened on Monday morning with steep losses after the overnight futures market tried to decipher the drama between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve. By the close the dust had settled and it seems they put this in the category of noise, and stocks bounced back to close with moderate gains. The I-fund led and the F-fund posted a small loss.
| Daily TSP Funds Return
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Reminder: I have some personal plans this week so the commentaries may be a little brief, and I may not respond to emails as quickly as I'd normally like to. I apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.
Just hitting the basics today:
The S&P 500 (C-fund) made yet another new high and it has been able to maintain the breakout above the inverted head and shoulders pattern for a second straight day. I like to see 3 to 5 to days above resistance to confirm a breakout, and I will respect that, but this has been such a clear cut inverse H&S breakout that it would be tough to argue against the bullish side.
The bull flag on the 10-year Treasury Yield has been holding relentlessly. Based on that flag, I would expect this to eventually break to the upside, but in the short-term it could move back to the bottom again if the flag wants to remain intact a while longer. A break to the upside could slow down the small caps and the S-fund, which is currently the leader in 2026.
Speaking of the small caps, the Russell 2000 chart looks great but it is up a against some resistance in the short-term after the 7-day rally off the 50-day average.
We'll get CPI inflation (Consumer prices) data today (Tuesday), followed by the PPI (Wholesale prices) report on Wednesday.
Admin note: We plan to have annual subscription sale during the week of January 19 - 23. More details to follow but we did move upcoming expiring annual subscription dates out until that day so you can renew that week without a lapse. As always, if you have an annual subscription that does not expire this month, or if you want to convert a monthly subscription to annual, the sale will allow you to tack on another year to your current subscriptions at the sale price. Also, we are considering a price increase after the sale, so this will lock in the lower price. As you can imagine, the costs of doing business has gone up quite a bit in the last 20 years and the TSP Talk Plus and Revshark premium service prices have remained the same since the day they started. A cure for that would be more subscribers so, spread the word and we may leave prices alone. That's a bribe.
DWCPF (S-fund) chart looks fantastic. Is it too good since everyone is getting onboard the small caps train?
The ACWX (I-fund index) also made a new high and led the TSP Funds again, making a case that this fund is not phased by the recent rally in the dollar.
BND (bonds / F-fund) continues to run the clock as it coils up for some kind of bigger move. The jobs report couldn't break the deadlock. Will today's CPI report or tomorrow's PPI?
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
