Epic's Account Talk

Good to know. Have been stuck in a rut so might need to consider moving to the sidelines for the upcoming possible stock correction.
 
Some yesterday morning (with Maria) Pomboy for ya.
She's the second annalist that I've seen who's suggesting a shift over to commodities (oil, metals, etc.).
Good stuff. About 7 minutes long. >>>>click me>>> https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6337626313112
Markets sensing that a 'pause is not helpful' in alleviating tightening: Stephanie Pomboy
MacroMavens President Stephanie Pomboy discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan's decision on interest rates, as well as energy prices.
 
what do u think about this dumping by china?

​Well, I'm probably not the best (or most knowledgeable) person to ask on this (just being honest). Possibly Tom or some of these other really smart market peeps have a better perspective, but..........
As I read the expanded article, it's quite apparent that they're not the only ones who are "de-risking" themselves AWAY from the U.S.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...5083&module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article

"The reduction in US Treasury bills holdings between March 2022 and this past July – China dumped US$191.4 billion, Japan slashed US$116.5 billion, Ireland cut US$44.4 billion, Brazil shed US$8.6 billion and Singapore got rid of US$4.8 billion – was partly because of the slew of aggressive US interest rate hikes that have dampened bond prices."

Not all though:
https://markets.businessinsider.com...d-market-outlook-selling-american-debt-2023-8

"Japan also slashed its exposure to Treasury's in June, per Tuesday's data, while both the UK and Belgium ramped up their spending on US government bonds by over $50 billion."

Also from that same article:

"It's the third straight month that Beijing has sold Treasury's and brings its total holdings to their lowest level since May 2009, per the South China Morning Post.
Bond prices have tanked in 2023, with 2-year yields jumping 169 basis points and returns on 10-year notes spiking 127 points as investors fret about the longer-term impact of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest-rate hikes and the government's issuance of fresh debt.
China appears to be fueling the rout, with authorities locked in a geopolitical battle with the US and engaging in dedollarization, a co-ordinated effort to chip away at the buck's dominant role in international trade.
It's likely to carry on cutting its US debt holdings over the next few months, according to experts.
"The proportion of US debt in China's foreign exchange reserves is expected to continue decreasing," said Peking University economics professor Tang Yao told the state-run publication China Daily on Wednesday."

Last but not least, I'll quote this guy from the "Comment" section ( https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-fuels-us-bond-rout-172720237.html ) who seems to sum it up fairly well:

"They were forced by circumstances to lower their US bonds holdings mainly due to the uncertainty of the continued strength of the US currency as indicated in the US huge gross national debts to buy for something more tangible like gold and oil. Japan, UK, Germany, etc. are also buying gold in huge quantities as a hedge."


 
To all my G-Fund Crew Peeps..... New All Time Highs ! ! ! Mo Money and no stress. I like it 100%.
We gonna need a taller chart soon ...........
:nuts::banana::nuts::banana::nuts: LOL
https://www.tspfolio.com/tspgfundinterestrate

GfundOct23.PNG

10717194.jpgbikefrog2.PNG
 
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Thanks Epic

Hard to pass up that G-Fund paying out 4.75%.

From 1960, SPX averaged an annual 8.15%, so really I'd need to earn that plus another 4.75% to make it worth taking the risk.
 
In 1990 it was 8.9%. :eek:

Holy Crap..... Really?? I had no idea.
I worked for private contractors for the first 10 to 12 years of my career, and just landed a Federal Gov. job in 1990ish, so I wasn't really tracking TSP stuff back then. I was still half wasted from the 80's....
:1244::1244::1244::nuts:
Well good...... That gives us sumpthin to shoot for. I'd love to see 9% G-Fund returns. I like that no-risk, stress free option. :laughing:
 
I'd love to see 9% G-Fund returns.

When nobody wants to loan you money you go to a loan shark, high interest.
When the G Fund hits 8%- :sick:

Don't get me wrong, the G Fund has been making me money but in the end, we pay for it.
 
In 1990 it was 8.9%. :eek:

[FONT=&quot]Holy Crap..... Really?? I had no idea.[/FONT]

And it wasn't a fluky year. It paid 8.8% in both 1988 and 1989. Before that we didn't have prices to check, and I believe it was even higher.

Oh, and those great mortgage rates back then too. In 1987 I got my first mortgage at 10%, and was happy to get it because they were coming down from the teens. The 70's and 80's were rough compared to the last 20 years.
 
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