Ebb's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred.
-- Alfred Tennyson

Monday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.3%): C 53.9%, S 52.1%, I 47.9%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; short S-fund was right; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (October 13, 2014): C -1.65%; S -1.30%; I -0.58% (Friday FV +0.53% added to Monday +0.39%, and -1.50 FV guess today).

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.5%); 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.7%); 6/red-red-grn (53.9%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.3%); 5/red-red-red (59.9%).

S&P 500: 55.1% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.1%; long > 55.1%.
Accuracy: 58/105 (55%). Long: 35/60 (58%). Short: 23/45 (51%). Cash: green (13 up, 10 down); red (7 up, 5 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.7.3%): C 55.5%, S 52.5%, I 53.1%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 52.5% (W 135, L 122). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Small caps caught an updraft.

Tuesday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.7.3%): C 55.5%, S 52.5%, I 53.1%.
Result: long C-fund was right; short S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (October 14, 2014): C +0.16%; S +0.92%; I +0.99% (Monday's FV +1.50% added to Tuesday's MSCI -0.51%).

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.7%); 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.7%); 6/red-red-grn (53.9%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.3%); 5/red-red-red (59.9%).

S&P 500: 55.1% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.1%; long > 55.1%.
Accuracy: 58/106 (55%). Long: 35/60 (58%). Short: 23/46 (50%). Cash: green (13 up, 10 down); red (7 up, 5 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.7%): C 56.3%, S 54.7%, I 53.0%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; short I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 54.7% (W 135, L 112). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.1%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Unofficial (October 13, 2014): C -1.65%; S -1.30%; I -0.58% (Friday FV +0.53% added to Monday +0.39%, and -1.50 FV guess today).
Unofficial (October 14, 2014): C +0.16%; S +0.92%; I +0.99% (Monday's FV +1.50% added to Tuesday's MSCI -0.51%).

Official I-fund result for Tuesday is +0.45%. The I-fund had a loss of -0.58% on Monday, so combined with Tuesday's gain of +0.99%, then then I-fund should be up +0.41%. A price adjustment of +0.04% made it to the I-fund's final price.

 

[kb9nvh]

Is there a primer for really dumb dummys...I spent about 30 minutes reading over the primer and how everything got started. Its not clear to me why 5 and 8 are entry indicators and 1 and 7 are exit. I see for yesterday you had green triple indicators on 1 and red triple on 5 so?? what does that mean? how about indictors on 2,3,4 and 6? Is this only for people to make moves 2 or 3 times a year? What tells us what funds to make the move into and out of.
I feel dumb since you have a primer posted and apparantly that's enough for everyone else. All my money is in G right now and I'm needing to get back in and dont want to jump in too early.

 

[ebbnflow]

Dow down -360 points...traders come in...down -460...dip buyers come in again. Volatility to the max.

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.7%): C 56.3%, S 54.7%, I 53.0%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (October 15, 2014): C -0.81%; S +0.42%; I -1.16% (possible +FV of half a percent).

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.7%); 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.9%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.3%); 5/red-red-red (59.9%).

S&P 500: 55.1% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.1%; long > 55.1%.
Accuracy: 58/106 (55%). Long: 35/60 (58%). Short: 23/46 (50%). Cash: green (14 up, 10 down); red (7 up, 5 down).

Thursday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.4%): C 52.8%, S 53.9%, I 53.4%.
Forecast: short C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 6/red-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 53.9% (W 137, L 117). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.1%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Is there a primer for really dumb dummys...I spent about 30 minutes reading over the primer and how everything got started. Its not clear to me why 5 and 8 are entry indicators and 1 and 7 are exit. I see for yesterday you had green triple indicators on 1 and red triple on 5 so?? what does that mean? how about indictors on 2,3,4 and 6? Is this only for people to make moves 2 or 3 times a year? What tells us what funds to make the move into and out of.
I feel dumb since you have a primer posted and apparantly that's enough for everyone else. All my money is in G right now and I'm needing to get back in and dont want to jump in too early.

The primer is outdated and it's a really simple system. No one has ever done it, I mean record the win percentage of quantifiable patterns (started in 2007). The system gets a green or red signal for the C, S, and I-fund each day. The red and green signals make up the patterns. Only 8 patterns are available: pattern 1 (C-grn, S-grn, I-grn); pattern 2 (C-grn, S-grn, I-red; pattern 3 (C-grn, S-red, I-red)...

For the TSP, we use the triple patterns as our long-term indicator. It's simply three patterns of the same kind showing up in three or four consecutive trading days. Our current triple pattern is a bearish triple pattern 2-2-2 which is a green pattern (has two or more green signals in the pattern), so the TSP system is in the F-fund. We also have double patterns which can be used to go into equities from time to time even if the triple patterns are bearish.

The winning percentages of the patterns (1-8) for the C, S, and I-fund are shown below:

The double pattern's win percentages are shown below:

Daily EbbChart for ETFs and stocks. The win percentage of the S-fund is used for the TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

 

[ebbnflow]

Just made an IFT to the S-fund. I will stay in the S-fund for Friday and next Monday (Oct. 17-20) due to a good double-pattern setup. It's risky, but I had to do it.

 

[ebbnflow]

Too risky to be in the market, but in for the next couple of trading days.

Thursday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.4%): C 52.8%, S 53.9%, I 53.4%.
Result: short C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (October 16, 2014): C +0.01%; S +1.15%; I -0.69%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.7%); 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.8%); 6/red-red-grn (54.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.3%); 5/red-red-red (59.9%).

S&P 500: 55.1% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.1%; long > 55.1%.
Accuracy: 58/106 (55%). Long: 35/60 (58%). Short: 23/46 (50%). Cash: green (14 up, 10 down); red (8 up, 5 down).

Friday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.5%): C 60.5%, S 59.9%, I 58.3%.
Forecast: short C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Friday has pattern 5/red-red-red. WP (S-fund): 59.9% (W 133, L 89). Strategy: Long > 55.1%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Oops, forgot to paste the right info for pattern 5. :embarrest:

Friday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.5%): C 60.5%, S 59.9%, I 58.3%.
(Incorrect) Forecast: short C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.
(Correct) Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Friday has pattern 5/red-red-red. WP (S-fund): 59.9% (W 133, L 89). Strategy: Long > 55.1%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Wild week. First leg of the double-pattern entry is successful.

Friday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.5%): C 60.5%, S 59.9%, I 58.3%.
Result: long C-fund was right; long S-fund was right; long I-fund was right.
Unofficial (October 17, 2014): C +1.29%; S +0.49%; I +1.33%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.7%); 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.8%); 6/red-red-grn (54.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.3%); 5/red-red-red (60.1%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 59/107 (55%). Long: 36/61 (59%). Short: 23/46 (50%). Cash: green (14 up, 10 down); red (8 up, 5 down).

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.6%): C 56.1%, S 54.8% (1st DP WP: 70%), I 52.8%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund. All funds follow the DP.

Monday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. 1st DP WP (S-fund): 70% (W 14, L 6). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

To keep track of how cities are doing with the major sports, we can tally their wins and losses like we do for the ebbchart patterns. It's just record keeping.

Cities

Patterns

 

[ebbnflow]

Double-pattern entry result (Oct. 17-20): Bullish pattern 5 (WP: 60%) last Friday had a gain of +0.47%. Today, 1st day of double pattern 4-4 (1st DP WP: 70%) gained +1.12%. The two day scalp netted the TSP system a total gain of +1.59%. The double-pattern entries have now been successful in 10 of 11 tries (WP: 91%). I counted the loss when I followed the weekly TNA strategy into the S-fund because it contained a double-pattern entry (Sep. 26 - Oct. 02) which I would have entered.

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.6%): C 56.1%, S 54.8% (1st DP WP: 70%), I 52.8%.
Result: long C-fund was right; long S-fund was right; long I-fund was right. All funds follow the DP.
Unofficial (October 20, 2014): C +0.91%; S +1.12%; I +0.60%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.7%); 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (55.0%); 6/red-red-grn (54.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.3%); 5/red-red-red (60.1%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 60/108 (56%). Long: 37/62 (60%). Short: 23/46 (50%). Cash: green (14 up, 10 down); red (8 up, 5 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.8%): C 56.3%, S 55.0% (2nd DP WP: 30%), I 53.0%.
Forecast: short C-fund; short S-fund; short I-fund. All funds follow the DP.

Tuesday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. 2nd DP WP (S-fund): 30% (W 6, L 20). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

I never go out without checking the weather forecast first. Same thing with the market, I check on the ebbchart daily forecast. Today has a 70% chance of rain, and only a slim 30% chance the sun will come out. I'm gonna carry an umbrella today, just in case.

 

[burrocrat]

I never go out without checking the weather forecast first. Same thing with the market, I check on the ebbchart daily forecast. Today has a 70% chance of rain, and only a slim 30% chance the sun will come out. I'm gonna carry an umbrella today.

i can not understand most charts no matter who it is. but i do really enjoy your quick 'unofficial' daily results so i can figure out how i did today without having to wait until evening to check the autotracker. also, i use your signals/probabities for tomorrow as a gut check confirmation during times when i feel i might want to make a move. that being said, i hope this next part doesn't bother you sir.

i learned a long time ago, on a boy scout trip to the bottom of the grand canyon to the reservation after months of planning and preparation and a long hike through some the best scenery and worst heat i could ever imagine, that sometimes it rains. now i figured to myself when many others where hunched up under a ledge and crying because the rain ruined everything that those impromptu water falls of the cliffs had a strange beauty, and it was downright cool how sand can turn to mud and then a liquid red raging slurry and back to mud and then rearranged sand again in just a few hours. i learned one of the most valuable lessons of my life, that when it rains you get wet. and i decided to not let it bother me too much.

so if it rains tomorrow i'm gonna take off all my clothes and dance in it and get wet because that is what the rain does. and if the sun shines i'm gonna get a nice tan because that's what the sun does. but either way i will not have it ruin my day, because that's what i do.

keep up the good work.

 

[ebbnflow]

Missed today's huge run-up, but I can't be too greedy. Tomorrow's third consecutive pattern 4 completes the triple pattern 4-4-4 on the daily ebbchart, so the TSP system remains in bearish mode.

Tuesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.8%): C 56.3%, S 55.0% (2nd DP WP: 30%), I 53.0%.
Result: short C-fund was wrong; short S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was wrong. All funds follow the DP.
Unofficial (October 21, 2014): C +1.96%; S +2.15%; I +0.87%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.7%); 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (55.2%); 6/red-red-grn (54.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.3%); 5/red-red-red (60.1%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 60/109 (55%). Long: 37/62 (60%). Short: 23/47 (49%). Cash: green (14 up, 10 down); red (8 up, 5 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.9%): C 56.5%, S 55.2% (TP WP: 50%), I 53.2%.
Forecast: short C-fund; short S-fund; short I-fund. All funds follow the DP.

Wednesday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. TP WP (S-fund): 50% (W 2, L 2). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

i can not understand most charts no matter who it is. but i do really enjoy your quick 'unofficial' daily results so i can figure out how i did today without having to wait until evening to check the autotracker. also, i use your signals/probabities for tomorrow as a gut check confirmation during times when i feel i might want to make a move. that being said, i hope this next part doesn't bother you sir.

i learned a long time ago, on a boy scout trip to the bottom of the grand canyon to the reservation after months of planning and preparation and a long hike through some the best scenery and worst heat i could ever imagine, that sometimes it rains. now i figured to myself when many others where hunched up under a ledge and crying because the rain ruined everything that those impromptu water falls of the cliffs had a strange beauty, and it was downright cool how sand can turn to mud and then a liquid red raging slurry and back to mud and then rearranged sand again in just a few hours. i learned one of the most valuable lessons of my life, that when it rains you get wet. and i decided to not let it bother me too much.

so if it rains tomorrow i'm gonna take off all my clothes and dance in it and get wet because that is what the rain does. and if the sun shines i'm gonna get a nice tan because that's what the sun does. but either way i will not have it ruin my day, because that's what i do.

keep up the good work.

Thanks, it's hard for me to understand other folk's charts, either. But dealing with probabilities means never having to say you're sorry. Your story reminds me of my childhood. When I was about 8 or 10, skinny me used to squeeze between window bars (against orders not to go out) and run through the streets and park in pouring rain with other kids.

 

[ebbnflow]

Seesaw..up and down...seesaw...up an down.

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.9%): C 56.5%, S 55.2% (TP WP: 50%), I 53.2%.
Result: short C-fund was right; short S-fund was right; short I-fund was right. All funds follow the TP.
Unofficial (October 22, 2014): C -0.73%; S -1.26%; I -0.53% (Tuesday's FV baggage of -0.56% added to today's MSCI EAFE gain of +0.68%, add expected FV of -0.65%, so I'd say the I-fund's loss is about -0.53%).

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.7%); 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (55.0%); 6/red-red-grn (54.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.3%); 5/red-red-red (60.1%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 61/110 (55%). Long: 37/62 (60%). Short: 24/48 (50%). Cash: green (14 up, 10 down); red (8 up, 5 down).

Thursday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.9%): C 55.6%, S 52.7%, I 53.3%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 52.7% (W 136, L 122). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Train left the station.

Thursday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.9%): C 55.6%, S 52.7%, I 53.3%.
Result: long C-fund was right; short S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (October 23, 2014): C +1.22%; S +1.51%; I +0.70% (Wednesday's FV buffer of +0.61% added to today's MSCI EAFE gain of +0.09%).

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (55.0%); 6/red-red-grn (54.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.3%); 5/red-red-red (60.1%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 61/111 (55%). Long: 37/62 (60%). Short: 24/49 (49%). Cash: green (14 up, 10 down); red (8 up, 5 down).

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 55.9%): C 56.6%, S 56.3%, I 54.9%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; cash I-fund.

Friday has pattern 3/grn-red-red. WP (S-fund): 56.3% (W 121, L 94). Strategy: Long <= 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

The bulls are on the rampage.

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 55.9%): C 56.6%, S 56.3%, I 54.9%.
Result: long C-fund was right; long S-fund was right; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (October 24, 2014): C +0.71%; S +0.45%; I +0.12%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (55.0%); 6/red-red-grn (54.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.5%); 5/red-red-red (60.1%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 62/112 (55%). Long: 38/63 (60%). Short: 24/49 (49%). Cash: green (14 up, 10 down); red (8 up, 5 down).

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.7%): C 56.2%, S 55.0% (1st DP WP: 71.4%), I 53.0%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund. All funds follow the DP.

Monday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. 1st DP WP (S-fund): 71.4% (W 15, L 6). Strategy: Long <= 55.2%.

 

[GUCHI]

Ebb just wanted to say I really like and appreciate your perspective but can you do something about the I founders getting robbed red handed? I saw where the EFA closed .55 but we are actually look n at about .12.i mean dammmmm can there be that much fv to make that much difference? I have been wait n for things to turn around for the I fund but with that fv even on a good day they will take a big bite out of the fund. As soon as I can I will exit the I fund with no intentions of going back there. I'm not trying to shoot the messenger, keep up the good work. The I fund ughhhhhhh