Ebb's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

In almost 8 years, pattern 5/red-red-red with the most bearish sentiment has the best win percentage (60.5%) among all the patterns in the C-fund. Its opposite, pattern 1/grn-grn-grn holds the record for worst win percentage (48.1%) in the I-fund (see chart below). That says to me that these patterns are not made of random stuff. So, whatever cycle I've been following, it's working.

Friday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.5%): C 60.4%, S 59.8% , I 58.2%.
Result: long C-fund was right; long S-fund was right; long I-fund was right.
Unofficial (December 05, 2014): C +0.17%; S +0.41%; I +0.10%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.0%); 8/red-grn-red (51.8%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.6%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.4%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.0%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 75/136 (55%). Long: 48/79 (61%). Short: 27/57 (47%). Cash: green (15 up, 11 down); red (11 up, 5 down).

Monday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.6%): C 55.7%, S 51.8% , I 56.1%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; long I-fund.

Friday has pattern 8/red-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 51.8% (W 127, L 118). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

7-yr. EbbTally

[/QUOTE]

 

[ebbnflow]

Dang pattern 8/red-grn-red was short and right, today.

Monday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.6%): C 55.7%, S 51.8% , I 56.1%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; short S-fund was right; long I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (December 08, 2014): C -0.73%; S -1.07%; I -0.40%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.0%); 8/red-grn-red (51.6%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.6%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.4%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.0%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 75/137 (55%). Long: 48/79 (61%). Short: 27/58 (47%). Cash: green (15 up, 11 down); red (11 up, 5 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.8%): C 53.8%, S 56.4% , I 48.1%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 56.4% (W 163, L 126). Strategy: Long > 55.4%.

7-yr. EbbTally

 

[ebbnflow]

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 75/137 (55%). Long: 48/79 (61%). Short: 27/58 (47%). Cash: green (15 up, 11 down); red (11 up, 5 down).

Oops, the short call was right, so it should be 28/58 (48%), and total is 76/137 (55%). At any rate, even though it's win percentage is low, compared to the long calls (48/79, 61%), the short calls are making most of the gains from TNA. Short calls are up +17.80% while the long calls are up only +0.81%. Strange, but it is what it is...losses are steeper than gains. And, 48% is not too shabby when the win percentage for shorts is expected to be at around 40% with this bullish market.

 

[ebbnflow]

Okay, if you were thinking that it must be pattern 1/grn-grn-grn (WP: C 53.6%, S 56.6%, I 47.9%) with the S-fund up +0.80%, and the I-fund down -0.73%, then you'd be right. Now, some folks may tell you that they believe that I believe in the ebbchart patterns, and they would be right, too. By the way, TNA is up +5.02% today (whoopee). You can go and play tic-tac-toe somewhere else.

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.8%): C 53.8%, S 56.4% , I 48.1%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was right; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (December 09, 2014): C -0.02%; S +0.80%; I -0.73%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.0%); 8/red-grn-red (51.6%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.6%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.6%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.0%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 77/138 (56%). Long: 49/80 (61%). Short: 28/58 (48%). Cash: green (15 up, 11 down); red (11 up, 5 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.6%): C 60.5%, S 60.0% , I 58.4%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 5/red-red-red. WP (S-fund): 60.0% (W 135, L 90). Strategy: Long > 55.4%.

7-yr. EbbTally

 

[ebbnflow]

A trim on the side turned into a buzz cut. :suspicious:

Wednesday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.6%): C 60.5%, S 60.0% , I 58.4%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was wrong; long I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (December 10, 2014): C -1.63%; S -1.99%; I -0.78%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.0%); 8/red-grn-red (51.6%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.6%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.6%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (59.7%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 77/139 (55%). Long: 49/81 (61%). Short: 28/58 (48%). Cash: green (15 up, 11 down); red (11 up, 5 down).

Thursday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.7%): C 56.0%, S 55.1% , I 53.1%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 55.1% (W 140, L 114). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.4.

7-yr. EbbTally

 

[ebbnflow]

Oil slipped below 60, so the market couldn't hold on to most of its gains.

Thursday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.7%): C 56.0%, S 55.1% , I 53.1%.
Result: long C-fund was right; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (December 11, 2014): C +0.45%; S +0.44%; I -0.55%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.0%); 8/red-grn-red (51.6%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.3%); 6/red-red-grn (54.6%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.6%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (59.7%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 77/139 (55%). Long: 49/81 (61%). Short: 28/58 (48%). Cash: green (16 up, 11 down); red (11 up, 5 down).

Friday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.4%): C 60.3%, S 59.7% , I 58.1%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Friday has pattern 5/red-red-red. WP (S-fund): 59.7% (W 135, L 91). Strategy: Long > 55.4%.

7-yr. EbbTally

 

[ebbnflow]

Something rocked the boat to tip it over. :suspicious:

Friday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.4%): C 60.3%, S 59.7% , I 58.1%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was wrong; long I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (December 12, 2014): C -1.62%; S -1.30%; I -1.14%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.0%); 8/red-grn-red (51.6%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.3%); 6/red-red-grn (54.6%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.6%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (59.5%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 77/140 (55%). Long: 49/82 (60%). Short: 28/58 (48%). Cash: green (16 up, 11 down); red (11 up, 5 down).

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.8%): C 56.1%, S 55.29% , I 52.9%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; short I-fund.

Monday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 55.29% (W 141, L 114). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

7-yr. EbbTally

 

[ebbnflow]

Market decline blamed on oil slippage.

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.8%): C 56.1%, S 55.29% , I 52.9%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (December 15, 2014): C -0.63%; S -0.90%; I -2.13%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.0%); 8/red-grn-red (51.6%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.6%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.6%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (59.5%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 77/140 (55%). Long: 49/82 (60%). Short: 28/58 (48%). Cash: green (16 up, 12 down); red (11 up, 5 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.4%): C 57.3%, S 57.0% , I 54.8%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; cash I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 3/grn-red-red. WP (S-fund): 57.0% (W 126, L 95). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.

7-yr. EbbTally

 

[ebbnflow]

The only red pattern to underperform during the bear market was pattern 3/grn-red-red, so I'd be watching that.

Tuesday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.4%): C 57.3%, S 57.0% , I 54.8%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (December 16, 2014): C -0.85%; S -0.44%; I +1.33% (will remain positive even with a -FV).

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.0%); 8/red-grn-red (51.6%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.6%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.6%); 3/grn-red-red (56.8%); 5/red-red-red (59.5%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 77/141 (55%). Long: 49/83 (59%). Short: 28/58 (48%). Cash: green (16 up, 12 down); red (11 up, 5 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.6%): C 54.2%, S 52.0% , I 48.4%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; short S-fund; short I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 7/red-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 52.0% (W 117, L 108). Strategy: Short <= 53.0%.

7-yr. EbbTally

 

[ebbnflow]

A dead cat bounce to the moon!

Wednesday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.6%): C 54.2%, S 52.0% , I 48.4%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; short S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (December 17, 2014): C +2.04%; S +2.62%; I -0.66% (add +FV and it's positive).

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.2%); 8/red-grn-red (51.6%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.6%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.6%); 3/grn-red-red (56.8%); 5/red-red-red (59.5%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 77/142 (54%). Long: 49/83 (58%). Short: 28/58 (48%). Cash: green (16 up, 12 down); red (11 up, 5 down).

Thursday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.3%): C 57.1%, S 56.8% , I 55.0%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 3/grn-red-red. WP (S-fund): 56.8% (W 126, L 96). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.

7-yr. EbbTally

 

[ebbnflow]

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 77/142 (54%). Long: 49/83 (*58%). *Short: 28/58 (48%). Cash: green (16 up, 12 down); red (11 up, 5 down).

*Corrected

Accuracy: 77/142 (54%). Long: 49/83 (59%). Short: 28/59 (47%). Cash: green (16 up, 12 down); red (11 up, 5 down).

 

[ebbnflow]

Up, up, and away!

Thursday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.3%): C 57.1%, S 56.8% , I 55.0%.
Result: long C-fund was right; long S-fund was right; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (December 18, 2014): C +2.40%; S +1.73%; I +1.51%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.2%); 8/red-grn-red (51.6%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.6%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.6%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (59.5%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 78/143 (55%). Long: 50/84 (60%). Short: 28/59 (47%). Cash: green (16 up, 12 down); red (11 up, 5 down).

Friday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.7%): C 53.1%, S 54.6% , I 53.3%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 6/red-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 54.6% (W 142, L 118). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

7-yr. EbbTally

 

[ebbnflow]

Another glorious day for stocks. :suspicious:

Friday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.7%): C 53.1%, S 54.6% , I 53.3%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (December 19, 2014): C +0.46%; S +0.50%; I +0.83%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.2%); 8/red-grn-red (51.6%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.8%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.6%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (59.5%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 78/143 (55%). Long: 50/84 (60%). Short: 28/59 (47%). Cash: green (16 up, 12 down); red (12 up, 5 down).

Monday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.8%): C 54.4%, S 52.2% , I 48.7%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; short S-fund; short I-fund.

Monday has pattern 7/red-grn-grn WP (S-fund): 52.2% (W 118, L 108). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

7-yr. EbbTally

 

[ebbnflow]

We have the worst pattern for the S-fund tomorrow (pattern 8/red-grn-red, WP 51.6%), but I don't know if anything can stop this runaway train.

Monday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.8%): C 54.4%, S 52.2% , I 48.7%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; short S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (December 22, 2014): C +0.38%; S +0.39%; I +0.44%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.4%); 8/red-grn-red (51.6%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.8%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.6%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (59.5%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 78/144 (54%). Long: 50/84 (60%). Short: 28/60 (47%). Cash: green (16 up, 12 down); red (12 up, 5 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.3%): C 55.5%, S 51.6% , I 55.9%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; short S-fund; short I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 8/red-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 51.6% (W 127, L 119). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

7-yr. EbbTally

 

[ebbnflow]

No brakes?

Tuesday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.3%): C 55.5%, S 51.6% , I 55.9%.
Result: long C-fund was right; short S-fund was wrong; long I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (December 23, 2014): C +0.17%; S +0.16%; I -0.29%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.4%); 8/red-grn-red (51.8%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.8%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.6%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (59.5%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 78/145 (54%). Long: 50/84 (60%). Short: 28/61 (46%). Cash: green (16 up, 12 down); red (12 up, 5 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.0%): C 54.6%, S 52.4% , I 48.9%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; short S-fund; short I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 7/red-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 52.4% (W 119, L 108). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

7-yr. EbbTally

 

[ebbnflow]

Trying to catch up (Dec. 24). Low-volume trading playing havoc on the charts.

Wednesday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.0%): C 54.6%, S 52.4% , I 48.9%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; short S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was wrong.
Official (December 24, 2014): C -0.01%; S +0.26%; I +0.34%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.6%); 8/red-grn-red (51.8%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.8%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.6%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (59.5%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 78/146 (53%). Long: 50/84 (60%). Short: 28/62 (45%). Cash: green (16 up, 12 down); red (12 up, 5 down).

Friday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.7%): C 53.3%, S 54.8% , I 53.1%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Friday has pattern Pattern 6/red-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 54.8% (W 143, L 118). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.4%.

7-yr. EbbTally

 

[ebbnflow]

I'll be glad when the markets get back to normal.

Friday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.7%): C 53.3%, S 54.8% , I 53.1%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (December 26, 2014): C +0.34%; S +0.53%; I -0.04% (Thursday's MSCI EAFE loss of -0.07% added).

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.6%); 8/red-grn-red (51.8%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (55.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.6%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (59.5%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 78/146 (53%). Long: 50/84 (60%). Short: 28/62 (45%). Cash: green (16 up, 12 down); red (13 up, 5 down).

Monday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.4%): C 55.7%, S 51.8% , I 55.7%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; long I-fund.

Monday has pattern Pattern 8/red-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 51.8% (W 128, L 119). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

7-yr. EbbTally

 

[ebbnflow]

'Tis the year of the buy and behold investor.

Monday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.4%): C 55.7%, S 51.8% , I 55.7%.
Result: long C-fund was right; short S-fund was wrong; long I-fund was right.
Unofficial (December 29, 2014): C +0.09%; S +0.30%; I +0.20%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.6%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (55.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.6%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (59.5%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 78/147 (53%). Long: 50/84 (60%). Short: 28/63 (44%). Cash: green (16 up, 12 down); red (13 up, 5 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.1%): C 60.0%, S 59.5% , I 57.9%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern Pattern 5/red-red-red. WP (S-fund): 59.5.8% (W 135, L 92). Strategy: Long > 55.4%.

7-yr. EbbTally

 

[ebbnflow]

Happy New Year!

Tuesday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.1%): C 60.0%, S 59.5% , I 57.9%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was wrong; long I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (December 29, 2014): C -0.49%; S -0.47%; I -0.86%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.6%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (55.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.6%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (59.2%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 78/148 (53%). Long: 50/85 (59%). Short: 28/63 (44%). Cash: green (16 up, 12 down); red (13 up, 5 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.5%): C 57.3%, S 57.0% , I 55.2%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; cash I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 3/grn-red-red. WP (S-fund): 57.0% (W 127, L 96). Strategy: Long > 55.4%.

7-yr. EbbTally

 

[ebbnflow]

What a year it was. The S&P 500 clobbered most of the market timers, but there's always next year (sigh). I'm pretty sure my gain of +4.65% (today's F-fund gain, not included) for the year is lower than Milkman's, or thousands of the lucky ones who just held on to equities, so this should be my last update of the ebbcharts in this forum. Thanks, and I leave you all to your own devices. Stay safe and above all, be happy.

Wednesday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.5%): C 57.3%, S 57.0% , I 55.2%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (December 30, 2014): C -1.03%; S -0.74%; I -0.18% (-FV of half a percent likely).

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.6%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.4%); 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (55.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.6%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (59.2%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 78/149 (53%). Long: 50/86 (58%). Short: 28/63 (44%). Cash: green (16 up, 12 down); red (13 up, 5 down).

Friday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.3%): C 55.9%, S 53.4% , I 53.6%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Friday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 53.4% (W 140, L 122). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.4%.

7-yr. EbbTally