Ebb's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

Ebb just wanted to say I really like and appreciate your perspective but can you do something about the I founders getting robbed red handed? I saw where the EFA closed .55 but we are actually look n at about .12.i mean dammmmm can there be that much fv to make that much difference? I have been wait n for things to turn around for the I fund but with that fv even on a good day they will take a big bite out of the fund. As soon as I can I will exit the I fund with no intentions of going back there. I'm not trying to shoot the messenger, keep up the good work. The I fund ughhhhhhh

Thanks, GUCHI. I know how you feel. The EFA doesn't take into account the FVs, dollar rollovers, and the European markets closing at noon, so it's off quite a bit lots of times.

 

[ebbnflow]

Bought an iPad mini with retina display early this month. Then Apple launches new iPads on Oct. 16. Bummer, my new iPad mini is already being phased out! The new iPad Air 2 has the new A8 chip (sadly missing from the new iPad mini) which has graphics 180x faster than the original iPad. It can take slow motion video, and basically as fast as desktop computers with its 64-bit architecture. So I called Apple about my situation and good thing they have an exchange policy that's effective within 30 days of launch dates. I think I'll exchange mine for an iPad Air 2 (pay for the upgrade), and pick out the gold color.

I've been playing Golf Star (online) for a couple of weeks and I can't wait to try it with the new iPad Air 2. You don't have to shell out money for the game (I haven't). No one can beat me as amateur, so I've gone to semi-pro. If you know how to compensate for the wind and elevation (divide by 3 and add or subtract to yardage), you should be alright. Try to complete career quests while competing against online players. Upgrade skill shots (fade, draw, high, rough, bunker, etc.) for accuracy and control. Same goes for your equipment (clubs, bags, gloves, etc.). Note: The game won't play on older devices.

 

[ebbnflow]

Not much action in the market. Good sign or bad?

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.7%): C 56.2%, S 55.0% (1st DP WP: 71.4%), I 53.0%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was wrong; long I-fund was right. All funds follow the DP.
Unofficial (October 27, 2014): C -0.15%; S -0.23%; I +0.15%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.8%); 6/red-red-grn (54.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.5%); 5/red-red-red (60.1%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 62/113 (55%). Long: 38/64 (59%). Short: 24/49 (49%). Cash: green (14 up, 10 down); red (8 up, 5 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.6%): C 56.0%, S 54.8% (2nd DP WP: 33.3%), I 53.1%.
Forecast: short C-fund; short S-fund; short I-fund. All funds follow the DP.

Tuesday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. 2nd DP WP (S-fund): 33.3% (W 7, L 14). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

This market wants as many traders leaning on the wrong side of the fence. So, with the spiked punch bowl (courtesy of the Fed) nearing its end, it would be natural for folks to withdraw from the market (perhaps temporarily), but as we can see today, get caught flat-footed.

Tuesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.6%): C 56.0%, S 54.8% (2nd DP WP: 33.3%), I 53.1%.
Result: short C-fund was wrong; short S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was wrong. All funds follow the DP.
Unofficial (October 28, 2014): C +1.19%; S +2.04%; I +0.79%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.5%); 5/red-red-red (60.1%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 62/114 (54%). Long: 38/64 (59%). Short: 24/50 (48%). Cash: green (14 up, 10 down); red (8 up, 5 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.7%): C 60.6%, S 60.1%, I 58.5%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 5/red-red-red. WP (S-fund): 60.1% (W 134, L 89). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Two more days left for October.

Wednesday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.7%): C 60.6%, S 60.1%, I 58.5%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was wrong; long I-fund was right.
Unofficial (October 29, 2014): C -0.14%; S -0.40%; I +0.57% (dollar spiked, so possible rollover tomorrow if no -FV).

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.5%); 5/red-red-red (59.8%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 62/115 (54%). Long: 38/65 (58%). Short: 24/50 (48%). Cash: green (14 up, 10 down); red (8 up, 5 down).

Thursday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.1%): C 56.8%, S 56.5%, I 55.1%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 3/grn-red-red. WP (S-fund): 56.5% (W 122, L 94). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Cement feet.

Thursday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.1%): C 56.8%, S 56.5%, I 55.1%.
Result: long C-fund was right; long S-fund was right; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (October 29, 2014): C +0.62%; S +0.53%; I +0.34% (Wednesday's FV buffer of +0.73% added to Thursday's MSCI EAFE loss of -0.39%).

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (59.8%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 63/116 (54%). Long: 39/66 (59%). Short: 24/50 (48%). Cash: green (14 up, 10 down); red (8 up, 5 down).

Friday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.8%): C 53.7%, S 56.3%, I 48.2%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Friday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 56.3% (W 160, L 124). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

It would have been nice to play contrarian with the Fed cutting off QE and the expectation of something bad happening...not (well, maybe later).

Friday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.8%): C 53.7%, S 56.3%, I 48.2%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was right; short I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (October 30, 2014): C +1.17%; S +1.40%; I +1.10%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.5%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (59.8%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 64/117 (55%). Long: 40/67 (60%). Short: 24/50 (48%). Cash: green (14 up, 10 down); red (8 up, 5 down).

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.8%): C 56.2%, S 54.9%, I 53.3%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Monday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 54.9% (W 139, L 114). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Time to play contrarian again with supposedly bullish midterm elections coming up? :suspicious:

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.8%): C 56.2%, S 54.9%, I 53.3%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (November 03, 2014): C -0.01%; S -0.01%; I -2.11% (added Friday's FV baggage of -0.87% to today's MSCI EAFE loss of -1.24%). The I-fund's price is out of whack because the TSP overlords wrongly decided to give an FV of +0.87% last Friday. Japan's Nikkei market was not even open last night, so that just compounds the mistake.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.7%); 6/red-red-grn (54.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.5%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (59.8%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 64/117 (55%). Long: 40/67 (60%). Short: 24/50 (48%). Cash: green (14 up, 11 down); red (8 up, 5 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.9%): C 53.8%, S 56.5%, I 48.4%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund. Personally, I think the market goes south tomorrow.

Tuesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 56.5% (W 161, L 124). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

 

[GUCHI]

Did I tell you how much I hate that fv thing..... Ughhhhh how can they do that.

 

[ebbnflow]

Did I tell you how much I hate that fv thing..... Ughhhhh how can they do that.

I double checked and the MSCI EAFE today is -1.24%, and if we add last Friday's FV baggage of -0.87%, then it should be -2.11% for the I-fund. How the I-fund only loses -0.85% is beyond me. There's no way for an FV of +1.26% today, so they must be covering up for last Friday's oversight. The I-fund shouldn't have had an FV of +0.87% last Friday (not warranted), especially with Japan's Nikkei market closed. How are they going to reconcile the -FVs? Maybe they will slowly ease it in during the next couple of days. :suspicious:

 

[GUCHI]

Well it was to my advantage, finally so I will take it. I would not feel so bad about the I fund except that I'm retired now so no more decaying and getting shares on the cheap. Thnx Ebb

 

[ebbnflow]

Looking for another down day tomorrow. :suspicious:

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.9%): C 53.8%, S 56.5%, I 48.4%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (November 04, 2014): C -0.28%; S -0.62%; I -0.70% (added missing FV of -1.26% to MSCI EAFE gain of +0.56%). We'll see if they put back the missing -FV from yesterdday, today.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.7%); 6/red-red-grn (54.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (59.8%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 64/118 (54%). Long: 40/68 (59%). Short: 24/50 (48%). Cash: green (14 up, 11 down); red (8 up, 5 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.1%): C 53.6%, S 51.8%, I 47.7%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; short S-fund; short I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 7/red-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 51.8% (W 114, L 106). Strategy: Short < 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Double-pattern entry fast approaching.

Wednesday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.1%): C 53.6%, S 51.8%, I 47.7%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; short S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (November 05, 2014): C +0.57%; S +0.09%; I +0.33% (added missing FV of -1.26% to MSCI EAFE gain of +0.56%). We'll see if they put back the missing -FV from yesterdday, today.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.0%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.7%); 6/red-red-grn (54.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (59.8%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 64/119 (54%). Long: 40/68 (59%). Short: 24/51 (47%). Cash: green (14 up, 11 down); red (8 up, 5 down).

Thursday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.4%): C 52.9%, S 54.1%, I 53.1%.
Forecast: short C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 6/red-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 54.1% (W 138, L 117). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

1st day of double pattern 3-3 begins tomorrow (see DP chart below for win percentage).

Thursday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.4%): C 52.9%, S 54.1%, I 53.1%.
Result: short C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (November 06, 2014): C +0.37%; S +0.64%; I -0.42%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.0%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.7%); 6/red-red-grn (54.3%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (59.8%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 64/119 (54%). Long: 40/68 (59%). Short: 24/51 (47%). Cash: green (14 up, 11 down); red (9 up, 5 down).

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.3%): C 57.0%, S 56.7% (1st DP WP: 47.8%), I 55.3%.
Forecast: short C-fund; short S-fund; short I-fund. All funds follow the DP.

Friday has pattern 3/grn-red-red. 1st DP WP (S-fund): 47.8% (W 11, L 12). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

One of the cycles I follow changed, so that necessitated revisions to the upcoming patterns. Instead of a pattern 3 on Monday, we get a pattern 1, so double pattern 3-3 disappeared. Single pattern 3 for this Friday is now back to being long. Oh well.

Thursday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.4%): C 52.9%, S 54.1%, I 53.1%.
Result: short C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (November 06, 2014): C +0.37%; S +0.64%; I -0.42%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.0%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.7%); 6/red-red-grn (54.3%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (59.8%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 64/119 (54%). Long: 40/68 (59%). Short: 24/51 (47%). Cash: green (14 up, 11 down); red (9 up, 5 down).

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.3%): C 57.0%, S 56.7%, I 55.3%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Friday has pattern 3/grn-red-red. WP (S-fund): 56.7% (W 123, L 94). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Have a nice weekend.

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.3%): C 57.0%, S 56.7%, I 55.3%.
Result: long C-fund was right; long S-fund was right; long I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (November 07, 2014): C +0.03%; S +0.11%; I -0.30%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.0%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.7%); 6/red-red-grn (54.3%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (59.8%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 65/120 (54%). Long: 41/69 (59%). Short: 24/51 (47%). Cash: green (14 up, 11 down); red (9 up, 5 down).

Monday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.7%): C 53.7%, S 56.3%, I 48.3%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Friday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 56.3% (W 161, L 125). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

It's up, up, and away for the bulls.

Monday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.7%): C 53.7%, S 56.3%, I 48.3%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was right; short I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (November 10, 2014): C +0.31%; S +0.33%; I +0.66%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.0%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.7%); 6/red-red-grn (54.3%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.4%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (59.8%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 66/121 (55%). Long: 42/70 (60%). Short: 24/51 (47%). Cash: green (14 up, 11 down); red (9 up, 5 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.5%): C 53.1%, S 54.3%, I 52.9%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; cash S-fund; short I-fund.

Friday has pattern 6/red-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 54.3% (W 139, L 117). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Happy Veterans Day!

Tuesday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.5%): C 53.1%, S 54.3%, I 52.9%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; cash S-fund was safe; short I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (November 11, 2014): C +0.07%; S +0.08%; I +0.20%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.0%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.7%); 6/red-red-grn (54.5%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.4%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (59.8%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 66/121 (55%). Long: 42/70 (60%). Short: 24/51 (47%). Cash: green (14 up, 11 down); red (10 up, 5 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.1%): C 55.8%, S 52.9%, I 53.5%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 52.9% (W 137, L 122). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Reminder: Tuesday's results will be combined with today's results.

Wednesday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.1%): C 55.8%, S 52.9%, I 53.5%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; short S-fund was wrong; safe I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (November 12, 2014): C -0.07%; S +0.32%; I -0.30%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.0%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.1%); 4/grn-red-grn (54.7%); 6/red-red-grn (54.5%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.4%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (59.8%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 66/122 (54%). Long: 42/70 (60%). Short: 24/52 (46%). Cash: green (14 up, 11 down); red (10 up, 5 down).

Thursday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.3%): C 53.8%, S 52.0% (1st DP WP: 52.6%), I 48.0%.
Forecast: short C-fund; short S-fund; short I-fund. All funds follow the DP.

Thursday has pattern 7/red-grn-grn. 1st DP WP (S-fund): 52.6% (W 10, L 9). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

I forgot to mention yesterday that pattern 2/grn-grn-red (53.1%) has shifted from short to cash (these patterns are dynamic). :toung:

Thursday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.3%): C 53.8%, S 52.0% (1st DP WP: 52.6%), I 48.0%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; short S-fund was right; short I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (November 13, 2014): C +0.05%; S -0.52%; I +0.21%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (51.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.0%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.1%); 4/grn-red-grn (54.7%); 6/red-red-grn (54.5%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.4%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (59.8%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 67/123 (54%). Long: 42/70 (60%). Short: 25/53 (47%). Cash: green (14 up, 11 down); red (10 up, 5 down).

Friday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.4%): C 54.1%, S 51.8% (2nd DP WP: 57.9%), I 48.2%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund. All funds follow the DP.

Friday has pattern 7/red-grn-grn. 2nd DP WP (S-fund): 57.9% (W 11, L 8). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.