Ebb's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

Good thing I didn't jump in the S-fund for today (would have been a waste of IFT).

Wednesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.0%): C 53.8%, S 56.6% (DP WP: 67.6%), I 48.5%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was wrong; long I-fund was right. All funds follow the S-fund DP.
Unofficial (September 03, 2014): C -0.08%; S -0.38%; I +0.72%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.9%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.2%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.4%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 46/79 (58%). Long: 28/44 (64%). Short: 18/35 (51%). Cash: green (13 up, 9 down); red (7 up, 4 down).

Thursday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.5%): C 54.1%, S 52.3%, I 48.2%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; short S-fund; short I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 7/red-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 52.3% (W 114, L 104). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Well, what do you expect from pattern 7/red-grn-grn, the worst pattern for the funds to be in.

Thursday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.5%): C 54.1%, S 52.3%, I 48.2%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; short S-fund was right; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (September 04, 2014): C -0.15%; S -0.41%; I -0.24%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.1%); 8/red-grn-red (51.9%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.2%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.4%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 47/80 (59%). Long: 28/44 (64%). Short: 19/36 (53%). Cash: green (13 up, 9 down); red (7 up, 4 down).

Friday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.9%): C 53.6%, S 56.4%, I 48.7%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Friday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 56.4% (W 155, L 120). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Today's market action was captured perfectly by pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Its signature -- up S-fund (+0.34%), down I-fund (-0.36%).

Friday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.9%): C 53.6%, S 56.4%, I 48.7%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was right; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (September 05, 2014): C +0.50%; S +0.34%; I -0.36%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.1%); 8/red-grn-red (51.9%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.2%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.5%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 48/81 (59%). Long: 29/45 (64%). Short: 19/36 (53%). Cash: green (13 up, 9 down); red (7 up, 4 down).

Monday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.8%): C 55.8%, S 51.9%, I 56.7%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; long I-fund.

Monday has pattern 8/red-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 51.9% (W 125, L 116). Strategy: Short <= 53%.
Note: Pattern 8/red-grn-red for Monday is the worst pattern to be in the S-fund (just saying).

 

[ebbnflow]

Not much movement in the market. When a pattern is wrong, this is when you want it wrong.

Monday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.8%): C 55.8%, S 51.9%, I 56.7%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; short S-fund was wrong; long I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (September 08, 2014): C -0.31%; S +0.02%; I -0.44%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.1%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.2%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.5%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 48/82 (59%). Long: 29/45 (64%). Short: 19/37 (51%). Cash: green (13 up, 9 down); red (7 up, 4 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.0%): C 53.8%, S 56.5%, I 48.6%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 56.5% (W 155, L 120). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

The forecasts I post here are mostly for ETFs like TNA. It follows the S-fund calls (short, cash, or long). Here's how to read the daily ebbchart:

 

[ebbnflow]

The daily TNA strategy (gain +38.12%) which was long took a beating, but the weekly TNA strategy (gain +24.56%) which was short surged. During the same period, TNA has a loss of -6.97%.

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.0%): C 53.8%, S 56.5%, I 48.6%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (September 09, 2014): C -0.65%; S -0.94%; I -0.60%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.1%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.2%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 48/83 (58%). Long: 29/46 (63%). Short: 19/37 (51%). Cash: green (13 up, 9 down); red (7 up, 4 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.7%): C 55.6%, S 52.1%, I 56.4%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; long I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 8/red-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 52.1% (W 125, L 116). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Nice uphill move by the bulls.

Wednesday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.7%): C 55.6%, S 52.1%, I 56.4%.
Result: long C-fund was right; short S-fund was wrong; long I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (September 10, 2014): C +0.36%; S +0.38%; I -0.12%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.1%); 8/red-grn-red (52.3%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.2%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 48/84 (57%). Long: 29/46 (63%). Short: 19/38 (50%). Cash: green (13 up, 9 down); red (7 up, 4 down).

Thursday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.8%): C 55.4%, S 52.4%, I 53.8%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 52.4% (W 132, L 120). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[GUCHI]

Ebb I hate seeing the I chart at the end of the day , then seeing your unofficial results ughhhhhhhh. That mess is depressing how it turns out with the fv mess.

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb I hate seeing the I chart at the end of the day , then seeing your unofficial results ughhhhhhhh. That mess is depressing how it turns out with the fv mess.

Yep, the volatile dollar can do that.

 

[ebbnflow]

The bulls continue to mock the pooh bears.

I can't remember the time when the patterns were wrong four days in a row.

Thursday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.8%): C 55.4%, S 52.4%, I 53.8%.
Result: long C-fund was right; short S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (September 11, 2014): C +0.07%; S +0.45%; I +0.03%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.1%); 8/red-grn-red (52.3%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.2%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 48/85 (56%). Long: 29/46 (63%). Short: 19/39 (49%). Cash: green (13 up, 9 down); red (7 up, 4 down).

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.5%): C 57.2%, S 56.9%, I 55.5%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Friday has pattern 3/grn-red-red. WP (S-fund): 56.9% (W 120, L 91). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Fed in Black starring Will Smith, Tommy Lee Jones, and Ben Bernanke.

This coming October, after all the bond purchasing stops, the Fed will make you forget what they've done. When you see Bernanke take out that gizmo, look away. :laugh:

Make that five times in a row the patterns were wrong in the S-fund. I don't think that's ever happened before. The good news -- the short call for the weekly TNA strategy (non-margin account) was right.

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.5%): C 57.2%, S 56.9%, I 55.5%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; short S-fund was wrong; long I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (September 12, 2014): C -0.60%; S -0.91%; I -0.17%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.1%); 8/red-grn-red (52.3%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.2%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.6%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 48/86 (56%). Long: 29/47 (62%). Short: 19/39 (49%). Cash: green (13 up, 9 down); red (7 up, 4 down).

Monday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.9%): C 60.8%, S 60.3%, I 58.6%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Monday has pattern 5/red-red-red. WP (S-fund): 60.3% (W 132, L 87). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.

 

[law87]

tooo bad Bernanke gone lol

 

[ebbnflow]

tooo bad Bernanke gone lol

Bernanke is coming back to finish what he's started. Coming soon in movie theaters near you, and I believe in 3D IMAX.

 

[dem336]

ebbnflow, Hi. I am new and I read several of the historical summaries of you work listed at the bottom of the thread. However, I am not clear of the time frame that was given on the signal Friday for trade on Monday. Is the system # 5 with 3 reds a 90 day buy in the various funds listed or just a short term buy for Monday. Thanks for the clarification and any other links that detail how this system is made up and how you use them day to day or for longer period of times. Thanks, Darris

 

[ebbnflow]

ebbnflow, Hi. I am new and I read several of the historical summaries of you work listed at the bottom of the thread. However, I am not clear of the time frame that was given on the signal Friday for trade on Monday. Is the system # 5 with 3 reds a 90 day buy in the various funds listed or just a short term buy for Monday. Thanks for the clarification and any other links that detail how this system is made up and how you use them day to day or for longer period of times. Thanks, Darris

Hi, Darris! Pattern 5/red-red-red for Monday is a one day buy signal, and is used for the daily TNA strategy (margin account). The daily TNA strategy did poorly last week (went 0 for 5). I don't remember that happening before, but i have to double check it. There's also the weekly TNA strategy (non-margin account), which called it short last week, and was right. This week's call is long. Why? It's because we have 4 long vs. 1 short call from Sep. 15-19 (check out the ebbchart below). The TSP system is also following the weekly TNA strategy, but long term it's bearish. The daily TNA strategy has dropped its gains from +43% last week down to +29% this week. The weekly TNA strategy is making up ground with a gain of 24%, up +3% from last week.

 

[ebbnflow]

Out of the frying pan and into the fire. :suspicious:

Monday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.9%): C 60.8%, S 60.3%, I 58.6%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was wrong; long I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (September 15, 2014): C -0.07%; S -0.94%; I -0.17%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.1%); 8/red-grn-red (52.3%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.2%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.6%); 5/red-red-red (60.0%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 48/87 (55%). Long: 29/48 (60%). Short: 19/39 (49%). Cash: green (13 up, 9 down); red (7 up, 4 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.8%): C 53.6%, S 56.3%, I 48.4%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 56.3% (W 156, L 121). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Bulls are all hooves when it comes to surfing. (no animals were harmed).

FOMC tomorrow. :suspicious:

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.8%): C 53.6%, S 56.3%, I 48.4%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was right; short I-fund (MSCI site is down N/A).
Unofficial (September 16, 2014): C +0.75%; S +0.53%; I (EFA +0.43%). It could end up negative, or positive but not by much.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.1%); 8/red-grn-red (52.3%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.2%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.5%); 3/grn-red-red (56.6%); 5/red-red-red (60.0%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 49/88 (56%). Long: 30/49 (61%). Short: 19/39 (49%). Cash: green (13 up, 9 down); red (7 up, 4 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.0%): C 55.6%, S 52.6%, I 54.0%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 52.6% (W 133, L 120). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

It's official, the final MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.28% in the I-fund. So pattern 1/grn-grn-grn strikes again (good to the S-fund, but mean to the I-fund).

 

[ebbnflow]

It's official, the final MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.28% in the I-fund. So pattern 1/grn-grn-grn strikes again (good to the S-fund, but mean to the I-fund).

The TSP overlords decided to pass the loss. They tacked on an FV of +0.53% yesterday, so the I-funders today will carry an FV baggage of -0.53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Yellen tried to hit a home run for the bulls today, but had to settle for a single.

Wednesday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.0%): C 55.6%, S 52.6%, I 54.0%.
Result: long C-fund was right; short S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (September 17, 2014): C +0.13%; S +0.14%; I -0.34%.

The S-fund is used to get our daily TNA calls (short, cash, or long).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.8%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.1%); 8/red-grn-red (52.3%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.2%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.5%); 3/grn-red-red (56.6%); 5/red-red-red (60.0%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 49/89 (55%). Long: 30/49 (61%). Short: 19/40 (48%). Cash: green (13 up, 9 down); red (7 up, 4 down).

Thursday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.6%): C 60.6%, S 60.0%, I 58.4%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 5/red-red-red. WP (S-fund): 60.0% (W 132, L 88). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.