Ebb's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

Pattern 2/grn-grn-red, with its low DP win percentage of only 40%, put the squeeze on the S-fund (-0.05%).

Wednesday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.2%): C 55.8%, S 53.1% (DP WP: 40%), I 53.7%.
Result: long C-fund was right; short S-fund was right; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (July 16, 2014): C +0.44%; S -0.05%; I +0.76%.

Note: With today's loss, pattern 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%) flipped from being cash to short. Just like pattern 7/red-grn-grn (52.6%).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.6%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.2%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (55.8%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 30/53 (57%). Long: 20/32 (63%). Short: 10/21 (48%). Cash: green (9 up, 7 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Thursday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.2%): C 56.0%, S 52.9% (DP WP: 56.0%), I 53.9%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. DP WP (S-fund): 56.0% (W 14, L 11). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

It turned out to be a great decision not to use the 2nd day of double pattern 2-2 for entry in the S-fund (-1.28%) today. Its win percentage of 56% was simply not good enough.

Thursday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.2%): C 56.0%, S 52.9% (DP WP: 56.0%), I 53.9%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; short S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (July 16, 2014): C -1.18%; S -1.28%; I -0.71% (possible -FV).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.7%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.6%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.2%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (55.8%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 30/54 (56%). Long: 20/33 (61%). Short: 10/21 (48%). Cash: green (9 up, 7 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Friday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.6%): C 53.4%, S 55.8%, I 48.7%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Friday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. DP WP (S-fund): 55.8% (W 149, L 118). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.
Personally, I'd rather stay short.

 

[ebbnflow]

Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn is written all over today's market action. It had a favorable win percentage of 55.8% (long) in the S-fund (+1.34%), but its win percentage of only 48.7% (short) in the I-fund (-0.16%) was also spot-on.

Friday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.6%): C 53.4%, S 55.8%, I 48.7%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was right; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (July 17, 2014): C +1.02%; S +1.34%; I -0.16%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.7%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.6%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.2%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 31/55 (56%). Long: 21/34 (62%). Short: 10/21 (48%). Cash: green (9 up, 7 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Monday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.9%): C 55.7%, S 52.1%, I 57.0%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; long I-fund.

Monday has pattern 8/red-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 52.1% (W 124, L 114). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Back from vacation. Pattern 8/red-grn-red was pretty much spot-on today. The long and short patterns are working according to expectations. It's all about probabilities and these patterns are the only ones doing it. No room for anecdotal evidence here...just the stats ma'am.

Monday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.7%): C 55.5%, S 51.9%, I 56.7%.
Result: long C-fund was right; short S-fund was right; long I-fund could be right (if we get any +adjustment).
Unofficial (July 28, 2014): C +0.03%; S -0.32%; I -0.01%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.8%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.4%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 34/60 (57%). Long: 21/35 (60%). Short: 13/25 (52%). Cash: green (9 up, 7 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.2%): C 55.9%, S 52.8%, I 53.9%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 52.8% (W 130, L 116). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Markets are holding up well, but every day brings it that much closer to a correction. :suspicious:

Tuesday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.2%): C 55.9%, S 52.8%, I 53.9%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; short S-fund was right; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (July 29, 2014): C -0.45%; S -0.14%; I +0.06%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.4%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 35/61 (57%). Long: 21/35 (60%). Short: 14/26 (54%). Cash: green (10 up, 7 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.8%): C 56.1%, S 54.4%, I 53.9%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 54.4% (W 130, L 109). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

The F-fund takes it on the chin.

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.8%): C 56.1%, S 54.4%, I 53.9%.
Result: long C-fund was right; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (July 30, 2014): C +0.01%; S +0.26%; I -0.59%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.6%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 35/61 (57%). Long: 21/35 (60%). Short: 14/26 (54%). Cash: green (11 up, 7 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Thursday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.1%): C 55.7%, S 52.6%, I 54.1%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 52.6% (W 130, L 117). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Wow, TZA soars with a gain of +7.03%. The shorts killed it today.

Thursday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.1%): C 55.7%, S 52.6%, I 54.1%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; short S-fund was right; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (July 31, 2014): C -2.00%; S -2.06%; I -0.85%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.6%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 36/62 (58%). Long: 21/35 (60%). Short: 15/27 (56%). Cash: green (11 up, 7 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Friday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.7%): C 53.5%, S 56.0%, I 48.5%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Friday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 56.0% (W 150 L 118). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.

 

[MrBowl]

I always appreciate your daily posts, even when the market stunk like today.

 

[ebbnflow]

Thanks, MrBowl!

 

[ebbnflow]

It's starting to look like the I-fund is going to take a big dump again while the other funds go green. What ebbchart pattern do we usually have when that happens? Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn, of course. This year, the pattern has latched onto this market action with uncanny frequency. In 27 appearances of pattern 1, the I-fund won only 7 times (WP: 26%), while the S-fund won 16 (WP: 59%). Check out the ebbtally 2014 chart below.

 

[ebbnflow]

The I-fund (-0.75%) hates pattern 1/grn-grn-grn (WP: 48.3%), and it shows. The C and S-fund came close to being green, but it wasn't meant to be. :suspicious:

Friday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.7%): C 53.5%, S 56.0%, I 48.5%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (August 01, 2014): C -0.29%; S -0.25%; I -0.75%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.6%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (55.8%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 36/63 (57%). Long: 21/36 (58%). Short: 15/27 (56%). Cash: green (11 up, 7 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Monday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.3%): C 52.6%, S 53.8%, I 53.6%.
Forecast: short C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Monday has pattern 6/red-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 53.8% (W 135 L 116). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Losing steam or picking up steam?

Monday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.3%): C 52.6%, S 53.8%, I 53.6%.
Result: shorth C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; short I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (August 04, 2014): C +0.72%; S +0.70%; I -0.31% (chance of +FV).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.6%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (55.8%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 36/63 (57%). Long: 21/36 (58%). Short: 15/27 (56%). Cash: green (11 up, 7 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.9%): C 56.3%, S 54.6%, I 53.7%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 54.6% (W 131 L 109). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

The I-fund hates pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. I know because the chart below shows that it only wins 48.3% of the time with pattern 1/grn-grn-grn on tap. It would even be worse if there is no -FV for the I-fund tonight. Somehow pattern 1 seems to sniff this kind of thing in the air. :blink:

Tuesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.9%): C 56.3%, S 54.6%, I 53.7%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (August 05, 2014): C -0.97%; S -0.50%; I -0.37%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.4%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (55.8%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 36/63 (57%). Long: 21/36 (58%). Short: 15/27 (56%). Cash: green (11 up, 8 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.9%): C 56.3%, S 54.6%, I 53.7%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 55.8% (W 150 L 119). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

The I-fund hates pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. I know because the chart below shows that it only wins 48.3% of the time with pattern 1/grn-grn-grn on tap. It would even be worse if there is no -FV for the I-fund tonight. Somehow pattern 1 seems to sniff this kind of thing in the air. :blink:

Tuesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.9%): C 56.3%, S 54.6%, I 53.7%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (August 05, 2014): C -0.97%; S -0.50%; I -0.37%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.4%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (55.8%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 36/63 (57%). Long: 21/36 (58%). Short: 15/27 (56%). Cash: green (11 up, 8 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.9%): C 56.3%, S 54.6%, I 53.7%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 55.8% (W 150 L 119). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

Should be:

Wednesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.5%): C 53.3%, S 55.8%, I 48.3%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

 

[ebbnflow]

EFA is acting like a -FV was applied to the I-fund last night. There was none, so add a loss of half a percent to whatever EFA is showing and it'll be closer to the real value of the I-fund.

 

[ebbnflow]

EFA is acting like a -FV was applied to the I-fund last night. There was none, so add a loss of half a percent to whatever EFA is showing and it'll be closer to the real value of the I-fund.

EFA ended down -0.24%. Add the half percent loss from above and we get the exact MSCI EAFE number of -0.74%. :nuts:

 

[ebbnflow]

Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn continues to punish the I-fund (-0.74%), and reward the S-fund (+0.06%). And, even though it has appeared 270 times on the ebbcharts -- compared to only 216 for pattern 7/red-grn-grn -- both bearish green patterns are now tied as holder of lowest win percentage at 48.1%.

Wednesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.5%): C 53.3%, S 55.8%, I 48.3%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was right; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (August 06, 2014): C +0.00%; S +0.06%; I -0.74%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.4%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (55.9%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 37/64 (58%). Long: 22/37 (59%). Short: 15/27 (56%). Cash: green (11 up, 8 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Thursday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.9%): C 55.5%, S 52.4%, I 53.8%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 52.4% (W 130 L 118). Strategy: Short < 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

I must confess -- these patterns know what they are doing and can also predict the future through probabilities.

Thursday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.9%): C 55.5%, S 52.4%, I 53.8%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; short S-fund was right; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (August 07, 2014): C -0.56%; S -0.45%; I -0.42%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.2%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.4%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (55.9%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 38/65 (58%). Long: 22/37 (59%). Short: 16/28 (57%). Cash: green (11 up, 8 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Friday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.6%): C 56.1%, S 54.4%, I 53.5%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Friday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 54.4% (W 131 L 110). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Russian military exercise over; relief rally ensues.

Friday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.6%): C 56.1%, S 54.4%, I 53.5%.
Result: long C-fund was right; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (August 08, 2014): C +1.15%; S +0.97%; I -0.69%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.2%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.5%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (55.9%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 38/65 (58%). Long: 22/37 (59%). Short: 16/28 (57%). Cash: green 12 up, 8 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Monday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.5%): C 53.5%, S 55.9%, I 48.1%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Monday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 55.9% (W 151 L 119). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Ceasefire is good for the world and the markets.

Monday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.5%): C 53.5%, S 55.9%, I 48.1%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was right; short I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (August 11, 2014): C +0.28%; S +0.71%; I +0.60% (FV baggage of -0.54% added to MSCI EAFE gain of +1.14%).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.2%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.5%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 39/66 (59%). Long: 23/38 (61%). Short: 16/28 (57%). Cash: green 12 up, 8 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.7%): C 55.2%, S 52.2%, I 53.6%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 52.2% (W 130 L 119). Strategy: Short <= 53%.