Ebb's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

Flatliners? We don't need no stinkin' flatliners! It's been ages since we've had a one percent gainer.

Thursday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.4%): C 52.6%, S 53.8%, I 53.6%.
Result: short C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (June 19, 2014): C +0.13%; S +0.11%; I +0.60%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.0%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.2%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 26/43 (60%). Long: 19/28 (68%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (5 up, 4 down); red (5 up, 3 down).

Friday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.1%): C 54.5%, S 53.1%, I 48.8%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; cash S-fund; short I-fund.

Friday has pattern 7/red-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 53.1% (W 112, L 99). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

The melt up continues, but it's another day without a one percent gain in the S&P 500 (C-fund). It was supposed to be a bad day for the I-fund with pattern 7/red-grn-grn on tap, and it was (loss -0.45%). Bearish green patterns 1 (I 48.7%) and 7 (I 48.8%) are battling it out for title of worse win percentage in any fund. Pattern 7 (I 48.6%) just took the crown back today (see chart below).

Friday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.1%): C 54.5%, S 53.1%, I 48.8%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; cash S-fund was safe; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (June 20, 2014): C +0.17%; S +0.33%; I -0.45%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.0%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.3%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.2%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 26/43 (60%). Long: 19/28 (68%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (6 up, 4 down); red (5 up, 3 down).

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.6%): C 55.8%, S 54.0%, I 54.0%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Monday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 54.0% (W 127, L 108). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

The melt up continues, but it's another day without a one percent gain in the S&P 500 (C-fund). It was supposed to be a bad day for the I-fund with pattern 7/red-grn-grn on tap, and it was (loss -0.45%). Bearish green patterns 1 (I 48.7%) and 7 (I 48.8%) are battling it out for title of worse win percentage in any fund. Pattern 7 (I 48.6%) just took the crown back today (see chart below).

Friday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.1%): C 54.5%, S 53.1%, I 48.8%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; cash S-fund was safe; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (June 20, 2014): C +0.17%; S +0.33%; I -0.45%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.0%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.3%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.2%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 26/43 (60%). Long: 19/28 (68%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (6 up, 4 down); red (5 up, 3 down).

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.6%): C 55.8%, S 54.0%, I 54.0%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Monday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 54.0% (W 127, L 108). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

It's summertime in the city, woo-hoo! :nuts:

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.6%): C 55.8%, S 54.0%, I 54.0%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (June 23, 2014): C -0.01%; S -0.11%; I -0.19%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.3%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.2%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 26/43 (60%). Long: 19/28 (68%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (6 up, 5 down); red (5 up, 3 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.8%): C 53.4%, S 56.2%, I 48.7%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 56.2% (W 149, L 116). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

It's summertime in the city, woo-hoo! :nuts:

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.6%): C 55.8%, S 54.0%, I 54.0%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (June 23, 2014): C -0.01%; S -0.11%; I -0.19%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.3%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.2%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 26/43 (60%). Long: 19/28 (68%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (6 up, 5 down); red (5 up, 3 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.8%): C 53.4%, S 56.2%, I 48.7%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 56.2% (W 149, L 116). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.

What a turnaround. What the heck happened?

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.8%): C 53.4%, S 56.2%, I 48.7%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (June 24, 2014): C -0.64%; S -0.93%; I -0.20%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.3%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 26/44 (59%). Long: 19/29 (66%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (6 up, 5 down); red (5 up, 3 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.7%): C 55.5%, S 52.3%, I 53.4%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 52.3% (W 125, L 114). Strategy: Short < 53%%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Can't wait for my 2 IFTs. Still holding on to a year-to-date gain of +11.05%.

Wednesday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.7%): C 55.5%, S 52.3%, I 53.4%.
Result: long C-fund was right; short S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (June 25, 2014): C +0.49%; S +0.66%; I -0.63%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.5%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.3%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 26/45 (58%). Long: 19/29 (66%). Short: 7/16 (44%). Cash: green (6 up, 5 down); red (5 up, 3 down).

Thursday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.5%): C 52.8%, S 54.0%, I 53.8%.
Forecast: short C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 6/red-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 54.0% (W 135, L 115). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

We have a double-pattern alert for Friday. A bearish double pattern 2-2 has appeared on the ebbcharts. Its 1st day has a win percentage of only 38% (9/24) in the S-fund, so I wouldn't be surprised if a sinkhole turns up tomorrow. See double-patterns chart below.

Thursday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.5%): C 52.8%, S 54.0%, I 53.8%.
Result: short C-fund was right; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (June 26, 2014): C -0.12%; S -0.14%; I -0.02%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.5%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.3%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 26/45 (58%). Long: 19/29 (66%). Short: 7/16 (44%). Cash: green (6 up, 5 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Friday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.8%): C 55.6%, S 52.5% (DP WP: 37.5%), I 53.1%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Friday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 37.5% (W 9, L 15). Strategy: Short < 53%.

 

[userque]

Can't wait for my 2 IFTs. Still holding on to a year-to-date gain of +11.05%.

Nicely done

Ebb, just wanted to make sure you saw the news about being able to trade the open in the TNA Challenge?

 

[ebbnflow]

Nicely done

Ebb, just wanted to make sure you saw the news about being able to trade the open in the TNA Challenge?

Yep, saw it, thanks. I usually do it near the close, so there's no emotion involved.

 

[userque]

Yep, saw it, thanks. I usually do it near the close, so there's no emotion involved.

Ok, but just to be clear. We talking actually having the trade take place at the Open, rather than the Close...trader's choice: and not just placing a trade for the Close, at the Open.:blink:

 

[ebbnflow]

This week has been anything but predictable.

Friday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.8%): C 55.6%, S 52.5% (DP WP: 37.5%), I 53.1%.
Result: long C-fund was right; short S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (June 27, 2014): C +0.19%; S +0.51%; I +0.15%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.7%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.3%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 26/46 (57%). Long: 19/29 (66%). Short: 7/17 (41%). Cash: green (6 up, 5 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Monday Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.0%): C 55.8%, S 52.7% (DP WP: 54.2%), I 53.3%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Monday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 54.2% (W 13, L 11). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Folks, we're only halfway there, but it's already beginning to look a lot like Christmas! Before today, my TSP is at +11.35% for the year. I think we'll have something more in the F-fund tonight.

Monday Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.0%): C 55.8%, S 52.7% (DP WP: 54.2%), I 53.3%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (June 30, 2014): C -0.04%; S +0.40%; I +0.30%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.3%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 26/46 (57%). Long: 19/29 (66%). Short: 7/17 (41%). Cash: green (7 up, 5 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Tuesday Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.0%): C 55.6%, S 52.9% (TP WP: 66.7%), I 53.5%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; cash I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. TP WP (S-fund): 66.7% (W 2, L 1). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.

[/QUOTE]

 

[ebbnflow]

The 1st of the month should be referred to as no man's land. You can't do IFTs the day before if you're still waiting for new IFTs. Expect this day to be artificially ramped up from time to time.

Tuesday Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.0%): C 55.6%, S 52.9% (TP WP: 66.7%), I 53.5%.
Result: long C-fund was right; long S-fund was right; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (July 01, 2014): C +0.67%; S +0.89%; I +0.71%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.1%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.3%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 27/47 (57%). Long: 20/30 (67%). Short: 7/17 (41%). Cash: green (7 up, 5 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Wednesday/B] Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.7%): C 57.1%, S 57.2%, I 55.8%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 3/grn-red-red. WP (S-fund): 57.2% (W 119, L 89). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Facebook trips, S-fund face-plants. Workforce increases, F-fund sneezes. :blink:

Wednesday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.7%): C 57.1%, S 57.2%, I 55.8%.
Result: long C-fund was right; long S-fund was wrong; long I-fund was right.
Unofficial (July 02, 2014): C +0.07%; S -0.46%; I +0.21%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.1%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.3%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 27/48 (56%). Long: 20/31 (65%). Short: 7/17 (41%). Cash: green (7 up, 5 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Thursday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.4%): C 55.6%, S 53.8%, I 53.8%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 53.8% (W 127, L 109). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

[/QUOTE]

 

[ebbnflow]

Dow 17000! What comes first, Dow 18000, or Dow 16000?

Thursday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.4%): C 55.6%, S 53.8%, I 53.8%.
Result: long C-fund was right; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (July 02, 2014): C +0.55%; S +0.55%; I +0.26%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.1%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.0%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.3%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 27/48 (56%). Long: 20/31 (65%). Short: 7/17 (41%). Cash: green (8 up, 5 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Monday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 55.0%): C 55.7%, S 52.1%, I 57.0%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; long I-fund.

Monday has pattern 8/red-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 52.1% (W 123, L 113). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

We had pattern 8/red-grn-red (WP: 51.9%), the worst pattern for the S-fund (-1.30%), and it showed.

Monday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 55.0%): C 55.7%, S 52.1%, I 57.0%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; short S-fund was right; long I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (July 07, 2014): C -0.39%; S -1.30%; I -0.70%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 8/red-grn-red (51.9%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.1%); 4/grn-red-grn (54.0%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.3%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 28/49 (57%). Long: 20/31 (65%). Short: 8/18 (44%). Cash: green (8 up, 5 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.2%): C 54.7%, S 53.3%, I 48.6%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; cash S-fund; short I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 7/red-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 53.3% (W 113, L 99). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Small caps are sinking. Abandon ship!

Tuesday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.2%): C 54.7%, S 53.3%, I 48.6%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; cash S-fund was safe; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (July 08, 2014): C -0.70%; S -1.05%; I -0.85%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 8/red-grn-red (51.9%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.1%); 4/grn-red-grn (54.0%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 28/49 (57%). Long: 20/31 (65%). Short: 8/18 (44%). Cash: green (8 up, 6 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.6%): C 55.7%, S 54.0%, I 54.0%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 54.0% (W 128, L 109). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Relief rally. :suspicious:

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.6%): C 55.7%, S 54.0%, I 54.0%.
Result: long C-fund was right; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (July 09, 2014): C +0.46%; S +0.30%; I -0.07%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 8/red-grn-red (51.9%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.1%); 4/grn-red-grn (54.2%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 28/49 (57%). Long: 20/31 (65%). Short: 8/18 (44%). Cash: green (9 up, 6 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Thursday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.0%): C 54.5%, S 53.1%, I 48.4%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; cash S-fund; short I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 7/red-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 53.1% (W 113, L 99). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Pattern 7/red-grn-grn (WP: 48.1%) is the worst pattern to be in the I-fund (loss -0.98%). The 2nd worst is tomorrow's pattern 1/grn-grn-grn (WP: 48.5%).

Thursday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.0%): C 54.5%, S 53.1%, I 48.4%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; cash S-fund was safe; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (July 10, 2014): C -0.40%; S -0.64%; I -0.98%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.8%); 8/red-grn-red (51.9%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.1%); 4/grn-red-grn (54.2%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.0%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 28/49 (57%). Long: 20/31 (65%). Short: 8/18 (44%). Cash: green (9 up, 7 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Friday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.6%): C 53.2%, S 56.0%, I 48.5%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Friday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 56.0% (W 149, L 117). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

R. I. P. S-fund.

Friday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.6%): C 53.2%, S 56.0%, I 48.5%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (July 11, 2014): C +0.15%; S -0.10%; I +0.07%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.8%); 8/red-grn-red (51.9%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.1%); 4/grn-red-grn (54.2%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (55.8%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 28/50 (56%). Long: 20/32 (63%). Short: 8/18 (44%). Cash: green (9 up, 7 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Monday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.7%): C 55.5%, S 51.9%, I 56.8%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; long I-fund.

Monday has pattern 8/red-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 51.9% (W 123, L 114). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Cough, cough. Must be running on fumes.

Monday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.7%): C 55.5%, S 51.9%, I 56.8%.
Result: long C-fund was right; short S-fund was wrong; long I-fund was right.
Unofficial (July 14, 2014): C +0.48%; S +0.47%; I +0.87%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.8%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.1%); 4/grn-red-grn (54.2%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (55.8%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 28/51 (55%). Long: 20/32 (63%). Short: 8/19 (42%). Cash: green (9 up, 7 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.7%): C 54.2%, S 52.8%, I 48.1%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; short S-fund; short I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 7/red-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 52.8% (W 113, L 101). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Good thing pattern 7/red-grn-grn flipped from being cash to short a while back.

Tuesday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.7%): C 54.2%, S 52.8%, I 48.1%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; short S-fund was right; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (July 15, 2014): C -0.19%; S -0.67%; I -0.42%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 7/red-grn-grn (52.6%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (53.1%); 4/grn-red-grn (54.2%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (55.8%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 29/52 (56%). Long: 20/32 (63%). Short: 9/20 (45%). Cash: green (9 up, 7 down); red (5 up, 4 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.2%): C 55.8%, S 53.1% (DP WP: 40%), I 53.7%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. DP WP (S-fund): 40% (W 10, L 15). Strategy: Short <= 53%.