Ebb's Account Talk

[userque]

What If Ebbcharts traded the TNA instead of 3X S-Fund? See charts below:

Note: The Prediction column actually is the Next Day's Prediction.

 

[userque]

Re: Simple to understand

Ebb, your returns with TNA would actually be slightly higher because you wouldn't be charged double commissions to go directly from long to short and vice versa. That's how the sheet is currently setup as it was taken from the S-Fund Challenge. The difference would be slight, but I can correct the formulas if you prefer.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: Simple to understand

Ebb, your returns with TNA would actually be slightly higher because you wouldn't be charged double commissions to go directly from long to short and vice versa. That's how the sheet is currently setup as it was taken from the S-Fund Challenge. The difference would be slight, but I can correct the formulas if you prefer.

Gotcha, userque. No need, and thanks a heap.

 

[ebbnflow]

Pattern 7/red-grn-grn means trouble for the I-fund. With today's loss, its win percentage in the I-fund sinks to 48.6%, the lowest in the ebbchart patterns. It also switched the pattern from cash to short, so we now have three short (2, 7, 8), two cash (4, 6), and three long (1, 3, 5) patterns.

Tuesday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.2%): C 54.5%, S 53.1%, I 48.8%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; cash S-fund was safe; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (June 03, 2014): C -0.04%; S -0.06%; I -0.18%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.1%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.6%); 6/red-red-grn (53.6%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.5%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.4%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 23/35 (66%). Long: 16/22 (73%). Short: 7/13 (54%). Cash: green (3 up, 4 down); red (3 up, 3 down).

Wednesday: 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.5%): C 55.3%, S 52.1%, I 53.2%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (S-fund): 52.1% (W 124, L 114). Strategy: Short < 53%.

I'm waiting one more day (tomorrow) for a big drop, and I'm back in (S-fund).

Wednesday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.5%): C 55.3%, S 52.1%, I 53.2%.
Result: long C-fund was right; short S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (June 04, 2014): C +0.18%; S +0.46%; I +0.01%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.6%); 6/red-red-grn (53.6%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.5%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.4%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 23/36 (64%). Long: 16/22 (73%). Short: 7/14 (50%). Cash: green (3 up, 4 down); red (3 up, 3 down).

Thursday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.9%): C 54.3%, S 52.9%, I 48.6%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; short S-fund; short I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (S-fund): 52.9% (W 111, L 99). Strategy: Short < 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

I'm waiting one more day (tomorrow) for a big drop, and I'm back in (S-fund).

Wednesday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.5%): C 55.3%, S 52.1%, I 53.2%.
Result: long C-fund was right; short S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (June 04, 2014): C +0.18%; S +0.46%; I +0.01%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.9%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.6%); 6/red-red-grn (53.6%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.5%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.4%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 23/36 (64%). Long: 16/22 (73%). Short: 7/14 (50%). Cash: green (3 up, 4 down); red (3 up, 3 down).

Thursday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.9%): C 54.3%, S 52.9%, I 48.6%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; short S-fund; short I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (S-fund): 52.9% (W 111, L 99). Strategy: Short < 53%.

Pattern 7/red-grn-grn may be wrong, but not flat-out wrong when it comes to the I-fund. The I-fund lagged the other funds with a gain of only +0.25% today. I'm back in the S-fund (Friday), so I know i'll be on pins and needles tomorrow.

Thursday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.9%): C 54.3%, S 52.9%, I 48.6%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; short S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (June 05, 2014): C +0.65%; S +1.25%; I +0.25%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.6%); 6/red-red-grn (53.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.5%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.4%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 23/37 (62%). Long: 16/22 (73%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (3 up, 4 down); red (3 up, 3 down).

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.5%): C 56.9%, S 57.0%, I 55.6%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Friday has pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (S-fund): 57.0% (W 118, L 89). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

 

[userque]

I'm also split within my own systems. My TSP system is still LONG S-Fund; it trades less frequently. My non-systemic GUESS is: down slightly for tomorrow. Just a fun guess is all.

 

[ebbnflow]

Pattern 7/red-grn-grn may be wrong, but not flat-out wrong when it comes to the I-fund. The I-fund lagged the other funds with a gain of only +0.25% today. I'm back in the S-fund (Friday), so I know i'll be on pins and needles tomorrow.

Thursday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.9%): C 54.3%, S 52.9%, I 48.6%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; short S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (June 05, 2014): C +0.65%; S +1.25%; I +0.25%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.6%); 6/red-red-grn (53.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.5%); 3/grn-red-red (57.0%); 5/red-red-red (60.4%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 23/37 (62%). Long: 16/22 (73%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (3 up, 4 down); red (3 up, 3 down).

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.5%): C 56.9%, S 57.0%, I 55.6%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Friday has pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (S-fund): 57.0% (W 118, L 89). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

The favorable upshot of Friday's May jobs report was predicted by pattern 3/grn-red-red (WP: 57.2%).

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.5%): C 56.9%, S 57.0%, I 55.6%.
Result: long C-fund was right; long S-fund was right; long I-fund was right.
Unofficial (June 06, 2014): C +0.46%; S +0.69%; I +0.59%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.6%); 6/red-red-grn (53.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.5%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.4%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 24/38 (63%). Long: 17/23 (74%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (3 up, 4 down); red (3 up, 3 down).

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn[/COLOR. Win Percentage (CSI 54.2%): C 55.4%, S 53.6%, I 53.6%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Monday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn[/COLOR. Win Percentage (S-fund): 53.6% (W 125, L 108). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.2%.
Note: EbbCharts went cash, but DTQ ByPass remained long for next Monday.

 

[ebbnflow]

What happened to my butter post? I know it's not up to par with the old Parkay...butter commercial, but still, Promise...butter was a good enough substitute. By the way, they stopped selling Promise margarine (why, oh why).

 

[ravensfan]

What happened to my butter post? I know it's not up to par with the old Parkay...butter commercial, but still, Promise...butter was a good enough substitute. By the way, they stopped selling Promise margarine (why, oh why).

Butter! Did someone say butter? I think RMI is pouring it over the popcorn...:laugh:

 

[ebbnflow]

The favorable upshot of Friday's May jobs report was predicted by pattern 3/grn-red-red (WP: 57.2%).

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.5%): C 56.9%, S 57.0%, I 55.6%.
Result: long C-fund was right; long S-fund was right; long I-fund was right.
Unofficial (June 06, 2014): C +0.46%; S +0.69%; I +0.59%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.6%); 6/red-red-grn (53.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.5%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.4%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 24/38 (63%). Long: 17/23 (74%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (3 up, 4 down); red (3 up, 3 down).

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn[/COLOR. Win Percentage (CSI 54.2%): C 55.4%, S 53.6%, I 53.6%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Monday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn[/COLOR. Win Percentage (S-fund): 53.6% (W 125, L 108). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.2%.
Note: EbbCharts went cash, but DTQ ByPass remained long for next Monday.

Our double-pattern entry continues to look good with a two-day haul of of +1.13% (Friday +0.69%, Monday +0.44%). Starting tomorrow, we have bullish double patterns 1-1, and 5-5.

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.2%): C 55.4%, S 53.6%, I 53.6%.
Result: long C-fund was right; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (June 09, 2014): C +0.09%; S +0.44%; I +0.05%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.5%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.4%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 24/38 (63%). Long: 17/23 (74%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (4 up, 4 down); red (3 up, 3 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.1%): C 53.6%, S 56.5% (DP WP: 69.4%), I 49.2%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. DP WP (S-fund): 69.4% (W 25, L 11). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Our double-pattern entry continues to look good with a two-day haul of of +1.13% (Friday +0.69%, Monday +0.44%). Starting tomorrow, we have bullish double patterns 1-1, and 5-5.

Monday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.2%): C 55.4%, S 53.6%, I 53.6%.
Result: long C-fund was right; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (June 09, 2014): C +0.09%; S +0.44%; I +0.05%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.5%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.4%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 24/38 (63%). Long: 17/23 (74%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (4 up, 4 down); red (3 up, 3 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.1%): C 53.6%, S 56.5% (DP WP: 69.4%), I 49.2%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. DP WP (S-fund): 69.4% (W 25, L 11). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

I think we should be able to take the big loss today in stride.

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.1%): C 53.6%, S 56.5% (DP WP: 69.4%), I 49.2%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (June 10, 2014): C -0.02%; S -0.22%; I -0.30% (guesstimate).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.4%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 24/39 (62%). Long: 17/24 (71%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (4 up, 4 down); red (3 up, 3 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.9%): C 53.4%, S 56.3% (DP WP: 63.9%), I 49.0%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. DP WP (S-fund): 63.9% (W 23, L 13). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

I think we should be able to take the big loss today in stride.

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.1%): C 53.6%, S 56.5% (DP WP: 69.4%), I 49.2%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (June 10, 2014): C -0.02%; S -0.22%; I -0.30% (guesstimate).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.4%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 24/39 (62%). Long: 17/24 (71%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (4 up, 4 down); red (3 up, 3 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.9%): C 53.4%, S 56.3% (DP WP: 63.9%), I 49.0%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. DP WP (S-fund): 63.9% (W 23, L 13). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

That's back-to-back losses for bullish double pattern 1-1. At any rate, double pattern 1-1 has had exemplary results this year in the S-fund (W 7, L 3, 70%):

Jan. 21, 22 (+0.47%, +0.52%); Jan. 29, 30 (-1.15%, +1.47%); Apr. 08, 09 (+0.76%, +1.35%); May 16, 19 (+0.44%, +0.84%); Jun. 10, 11 (-0.21%, -0.33%).

Wednesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.9%): C 53.4%, S 56.3% (DP WP: 63.9%), I 49.0%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (June 11, 2014): C -0.35%; S -0.33%; I -0.17%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.4%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 24/40 (60%). Long: 17/25 (68%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (4 up, 4 down); red (3 up, 3 down).

Thursday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 60.0%): C 60.9%, S 60.4% (DP WP: 57.1%), I 58.7%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 5/red-red-red. DP WP (S-fund): 57.1% (W 16, L 12). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

That's back-to-back losses for bullish double pattern 1-1. At any rate, double pattern 1-1 has had exemplary results this year in the S-fund (W 7, L 3, 70%):

Jan. 21, 22 (+0.47%, +0.52%); Jan. 29, 30 (-1.15%, +1.47%); Apr. 08, 09 (+0.76%, +1.35%); May 16, 19 (+0.44%, +0.84%); Jun. 10, 11 (-0.21%, -0.33%).

Wednesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.9%): C 53.4%, S 56.3% (DP WP: 63.9%), I 49.0%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (June 11, 2014): C -0.35%; S -0.33%; I -0.17%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.4%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 24/40 (60%). Long: 17/25 (68%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (4 up, 4 down); red (3 up, 3 down).

Thursday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 60.0%): C 60.9%, S 60.4% (DP WP: 57.1%), I 58.7%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 5/red-red-red. DP WP (S-fund): 57.1% (W 16, L 12). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

Right back where we started last Thursday with the double-pattern entry. Tomorrow is supposed to be the deciding day whether the entry is successful or not (winning streak of 7 is on the line), but I've changed my mind to extend the stay in the S-fund until next week Tuesday. We have cash/neutral pattern 6/red-red-grn (WP: 53.6%) on Monday, and long pattern 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%) on Tuesday. I want to catch long pattern 1/grn-grn-grn since double pattern 1-1 failed to turn positive on both days this week.

Thursday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 60.0%): C 60.9%, S 60.4% (DP WP: 57.1%), I 58.7%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was wrong; long I-fund was right.
Unofficial (June 12, 2014): C -0.71%; S -0.65%; I +0.11%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.1%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 24/41 (59%). Long: 17/26 (65%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (4 up, 4 down); red (3 up, 3 down).

Friday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.9%): C 60.6%, S 60.1% (DP WP: 63.9%), I 58.9%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Friday has pattern 5/red-red-red. DP WP (S-fund): 63.9% (W 23, L 13). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Right back where we started last Thursday with the double-pattern entry. Tomorrow is supposed to be the deciding day whether the entry is successful or not (winning streak of 7 is on the line), but I've changed my mind to extend the stay in the S-fund until next week Tuesday. We have cash/neutral pattern 6/red-red-grn (WP: 53.6%) on Monday, and long pattern 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%) on Tuesday. I want to catch long pattern 1/grn-grn-grn since double pattern 1-1 failed to turn positive on both days this week.

Oops, I meant Friday, not Thursday. :toung:

 

[ebbnflow]

Right back where we started last Thursday with the double-pattern entry. Tomorrow is supposed to be the deciding day whether the entry is successful or not (winning streak of 7 is on the line), but I've changed my mind to extend the stay in the S-fund until next week Tuesday. We have cash/neutral pattern 6/red-red-grn (WP: 53.6%) on Monday, and long pattern 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%) on Tuesday. I want to catch long pattern 1/grn-grn-grn since double pattern 1-1 failed to turn positive on both days this week.

Thursday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 60.0%): C 60.9%, S 60.4% (DP WP: 57.1%), I 58.7%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was wrong; long I-fund was right.
Unofficial (June 12, 2014): C -0.71%; S -0.65%; I +0.11%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.1%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 24/41 (59%). Long: 17/26 (65%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (4 up, 4 down); red (3 up, 3 down).

Friday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.9%): C 60.6%, S 60.1% (DP WP: 65.5%), I 58.9%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund. Corrected.

Friday has pattern 5/red-red-red. DP WP (S-fund): 65.5% (W 19, L 10). Strategy: Long > 55.2%. Corrected.

It's a risk-reward situation staying long over the weekend. Let's see how it pans out. :suspicious:

Friday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.9%): C 60.6%, S 60.1% (DP WP: 65.5%), I 58.9%.
Result: long C-fund was right; long S-fund was right; long I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (June 13, 2014): C +0.31%; S +0.33%; I -0.23%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 25/42 (60%). Long: 18/27 (67%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (4 up, 4 down); red (3 up, 3 down).

Monday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.3%): C 52.4%, S 53.6%, I 53.8%.
Forecast: short C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Monday has pattern 6/red-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 53.6% (W 133, L 115). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

It's a risk-reward situation staying long over the weekend. Let's see how it pans out. :suspicious:

Friday: Pattern 5/red-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 59.9%): C 60.6%, S 60.1% (DP WP: 65.5%), I 58.9%.
Result: long C-fund was right; long S-fund was right; long I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (June 13, 2014): C +0.31%; S +0.33%; I -0.23%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.6%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 25/42 (60%). Long: 18/27 (67%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (4 up, 4 down); red (3 up, 3 down).

Monday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.3%): C 52.4%, S 53.6%, I 53.8%.
Forecast: short C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Monday has pattern 6/red-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 53.6% (W 133, L 115). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.2%.

FOMC meeting is tomorrow and Wednesday. Traders ramp it up Tuesday, then bail out on Wednesday. :suspicious:

Monday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.3%): C 52.4%, S 53.6%, I 53.8%.
Result: short C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (June 16, 2014): C +0.08%; S +0.20%; I -0.19%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 25/42 (60%). Long: 18/27 (67%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (4 up, 4 down); red (4 up, 3 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.7%): C 53.2%, S 56.1%, I 48.9%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 56.1% (W 148, L 116). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

[SUB][/SUB]

...I want to catch long pattern 1/grn-grn-grn since double pattern 1-1 failed to turn positive on both days this week.

So far, so good. Typical single pattern 1/grn-grn-grn signature...so-so in the C, strong in the S, and weak in the I-fund.

 

[ebbnflow]

FOMC meeting is tomorrow and Wednesday. Traders ramp it up Tuesday, then bail out on Wednesday. :suspicious:

Monday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.3%): C 52.4%, S 53.6%, I 53.8%.
Result: short C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (June 16, 2014): C +0.08%; S +0.20%; I -0.19%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 25/42 (60%). Long: 18/27 (67%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (4 up, 4 down); red (4 up, 3 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.7%): C 53.2%, S 56.1%, I 48.9%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 56.1% (W 148, L 116). Strategy: Long > 55.2%.

There goes single pattern 1/grn-grn-grn again -- being very nice to the S-fund and cruel to the I-fund. At any rate, our double-pattern entry ends today (June 06-17), so the winning streak lives on and continues at 8. Gain for the S-fund should be around +1.23%. If you had TNA locked up during that time, it's a gain of +5.84%.

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.7%): C 53.2%, S 56.1%, I 48.9%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was right; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (June 17, 2014): C +0.22%; S +0.73%; I -0.04%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.2%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 26/43 (60%). Long: 19/28 (68%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (4 up, 4 down); red (4 up, 3 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.4%): C 55.6%, S 53.8%, I 53.8%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 53.8% (W 126, L 108). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.2%.

 

[ebbnflow]

There goes single pattern 1/grn-grn-grn again -- being very nice to the S-fund and cruel to the I-fund. At any rate, our double-pattern entry ends today (June 06-17), so the winning streak lives on and continues at 8. Gain for the S-fund should be around +1.23%. If you had TNA locked up during that time, it's a gain of +5.84%.

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.7%): C 53.2%, S 56.1%, I 48.9%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was right; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (June 17, 2014): C +0.22%; S +0.73%; I -0.04%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (53.8%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.2%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.2% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.2%; long > 55.2%.
Accuracy: 26/43 (60%). Long: 19/28 (68%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (4 up, 4 down); red (4 up, 3 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.4%): C 55.6%, S 53.8%, I 53.8%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 53.8% (W 126, L 108). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.2%.

Missed out on the half percent gain today (can't be too greedy), but I'm glad pattern 4/grn-red-grn is a cash pattern, otherwise I'd be shorting it.

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.4%): C 55.6%, S 53.8%, I 53.8%.
Result: long C-fund was right; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe
Unofficial (June 18, 2014): C +0.77%; S +0.55%; I +0.22% (possible +FV).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.0%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.2%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 26/43 (60%). Long: 19/28 (68%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (5 up, 4 down); red (4 up, 3 down).

Thursday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.4%): C 52.6%, S 53.8%, I 53.6%.
Forecast: short C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 6/red-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 53.8% (W 134, L 115). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Missed out on the half percent gain today (can't be too greedy), but I'm glad pattern 4/grn-red-grn is a cash pattern, otherwise I'd be shorting it.

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.4%): C 55.6%, S 53.8%, I 53.8%.
Result: long C-fund was right; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe
Unofficial (June 18, 2014): C +0.77%; S +0.55%; I +0.22% (possible +FV).

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.0%); 6/red-red-grn (53.8%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.2%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 26/43 (60%). Long: 19/28 (68%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (5 up, 4 down); red (4 up, 3 down).

Thursday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.4%): C 52.6%, S 53.8%, I 53.6%.
Forecast: short C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 6/red-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 53.8% (W 134, L 115). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

Flatliners? We don't need no stinkin' flatliners! It's been ages since we've had a one percent gainer.

Thursday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.4%): C 52.6%, S 53.8%, I 53.6%.
Result: short C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe
Unofficial (June 19, 2014): C +0.13%; S +0.11%; I +0.60%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (52.1%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.0%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%); 7/red-grn-grn (53.1%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.2%); 3/grn-red-red (57.2%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 26/43 (60%). Long: 19/28 (68%). Short: 7/15 (47%). Cash: green (5 up, 4 down); red (5 up, 3 down).

Friday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.1%): C 54.5%, S 53.1%, I 48.8%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; cash S-fund; short I-fund.

Friday has pattern 7/red-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 53.1% (W 112, L 99). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.