Ebb's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

Pattern 2/grn-grn-red (WP: 52.0%) is the 2nd worst pattern for the S-fund (-0.54%), and it showed.

Tuesday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.7%): C 55.2%, S 52.2%, I 53.6%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; short S-fund was right; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (August 12, 2014): C -0.16%; S -0.54%; I -0.09%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.0%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.5%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 40/67 (60%). Long: 23/38 (61%). Short: 17/29 (59%). Cash: green 12 up, 8 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.7%): C 56.3%, S 54.5 (DP WP: 68.4%), I 53.3%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund. All funds following the DP (chart below).

Wednesday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 68.4% (W 13, L 6). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.

Double-Patterns Chart

 

[ebbnflow]

The double-pattern entry (+0.84%) does it again for the 9th consecutive time in a row. It has been so successful because it doesn't limit itself to patterns with only a 55% or 59% winning percentage. Nope, it can think beyond and go with even higher win percentages like 68%, 70%, or 72%. On the flip side, we also have to watch out for patterns with low win percentages. Thursday (tomorrow) has a very low win percentage of 26.3%, so I'm out (back in the F-fund).

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.7%): C 56.3%, S 54.5 (DP WP: 68.4%), I 53.3%.
Result: long C-fund was right; long S-fund was right; long I-fund was right.
Unofficial (August 13, 2014): C +0.67%; S +0.84%; I +0.43%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.0%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.7%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 41/68 (60%). Long: 24/39 (62%). Short: 17/29 (59%). Cash: green 12 up, 8 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Thursday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.9%): C 56.4%, S 54.7 (DP WP: 26.3%), I 53.5%.
Forecast: short C-fund; short S-fund; short I-fund. All funds are following the DP (chart below).

Thursday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. DP WP (S-fund): 26.3% (W 5, L 14). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

Double-Patterns Chart

7-yr. EbbTally Chart

Daily EbbChart

 

[ebbnflow]

There was no reversal today, but gains were kind of muted. It's mission accomplished with yesterday's successful scalp. You can close the book on this double-pattern entry.

Thursday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 54.9%): C 56.4%, S 54.7 (DP WP: 26.3%), I 53.5%.
Result: short C-fund was wrong; short S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (August 14, 2014): C +0.43%; S +0.36%; I +0.38%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.0%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%); 3/grn-red-red (56.7%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 41/69 (59%). Long: 24/39 (62%). Short: 17/30 (57%). Cash: green 12 up, 8 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.5%): C 57.0%, S 56.7%, I 55.7%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund.

Friday has pattern 3/grn-red-red. WP (S-fund): 56.7% (W 119, L 91). Strategy: Long > 55.3%%.

Double-Patterns Chart

7-yr. EbbTally Chart

Daily EbbChart

 

[ebbnflow]

The S-fund sneaks into positive territory.

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.5%): C 57.0%, S 56.7%, I 55.7%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was right; long I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (August 15, 2014): C -0.01%; S +0.00%; I -0.23%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.0%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 42/70 (60%). Long: 25/40 (63%). Short: 17/30 (57%). Cash: green 12 up, 8 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Monday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.5%): C 55.0%, S 52.0%, I 53.4%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Friday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 52.0% (W 130, L 120). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

Double-Patterns Chart

7-yr. EbbTally Chart

Daily EbbChart

 

[ebbnflow]

Pattern 3/grn-red-red was more right than wrong. The C-fund turned positive along with the S-fund.

The big gain in the F-fund puts the TSP system's year-to-date gain at +12.11%. Up +1.80% for the month of August.

The S-fund sneaks into positive territory.

Friday: Pattern 3/grn-red-red. Win Percentage (CSI 56.5%): C 57.0%, S 56.7%, I 55.7%.
Result: long C-fund was *right; long S-fund was right; long I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (August 15, 2014): C *+0.01%; S +0.00%; I -0.23%.
*Corrected.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.0%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 42/70 (60%). Long: 25/40 (63%). Short: 17/30 (57%). Cash: green 12 up, 8 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Monday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.5%): C 55.0%, S 52.0%, I 53.4%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Friday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 52.0% (W 130, L 120). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

Double-Patterns Chart

7-yr. EbbTally Chart

Daily EbbChart

 

[ebbnflow]

Russia's not-so-subtle Trojan horse convoy. No wonder Ukraine didn't fall for it.

 

[ebbnflow]

Missing a big day in the market sucks. The herd must have gone to the side, so buyers just swooped in to pick up the pieces.

Monday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.5%): C 55.0%, S 52.0%, I 53.4%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; short S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (August 18, 2014): C +0.85%; S +1.23%; I +0.69%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.2%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.1%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 42/71 (59%). Long: 25/40 (63%). Short: 17/31 (55%). Cash: green (12 up, 8 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.7%): C 53.7%, S 56.1%, I 48.3%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 56.1% (W 152, L 119). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn continues to be good for the S-fund. Surprisingly, the I-fund has also been getting some love the last couple of times from this pattern. At any rate, watch out for Thursday and Friday, patterns 2 and 7 can be very bad for the market (just saying).

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.7%): C 53.7%, S 56.1%, I 48.3%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was right; short I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (August 19, 2014): C +0.50%; S +0.38%; I +0.33%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.2%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 43/72 (60%). Long: 26/41 (63%). Short: 17/31 (55%). Cash: green (12 up, 8 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 55.1%): C 56.6%, S 54.9%, I 53.7%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 54.9% (W 134, L 110). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Dang F-fund doesn't know how to bounce back from a knee-jerk reaction like the other funds.

Wednesday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 55.1%): C 56.6%, S 54.9%, I 53.7%.
Result: long C-fund was right; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was cash.
Unofficial (August 20, 2014): C +0.25%; S +0.03%; I -0.25%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.2%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 43/72 (60%). Long: 26/41 (63%). Short: 17/31 (55%). Cash: green (13 up, 8 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Thursday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.7%): C 55.2%, S 52.2%, I 53.6%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 2/grn-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 52.2% (W 131, L 120). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

The C and S-fund have been swept upwards for the 7th consecutive time in a row. Tomorrow, the bears will try again to swim against the current. It could be a losing battle.

Thursday: Pattern 2/grn-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 53.7%): C 55.2%, S 52.2%, I 53.6%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; short S-fund was wrong; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (August 21, 2014): C +0.29%; S +0.12%; I +0.48%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 43/73 (59%). Long: 26/41 (63%). Short: 17/32 (53%). Cash: green (13 up, 8 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Friday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.5%): C 54.2%, S 52.3%, I 48.1%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; short S-fund; short I-fund.

Friday has pattern 7/red-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 52.3% (W 113, L 103). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

The S-fund holds on to a measly gain of +0.02%. Really? :suspicious:

Friday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.5%): C 54.2%, S 52.3%, I 48.1%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; short S-fund was wrong; short I-fund was right.
Unofficial (August 22, 2014): C -0.20%; S +0.02%; I -0.56%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.5%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.3%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.3% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.3%; long > 55.3%.
Accuracy: 43/74 (58%). Long: 26/41 (63%). Short: 17/33 (52%). Cash: green (13 up, 8 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Monday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.9%): C 53.8%, S 56.3%, I 48.5%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Monday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 56.3% (W 153, L 119). Strategy: Long > 55.3%.

 

[ebbnflow]

With pattern 1/grn-grn-grn this year, the S-fund has a win percentage of 63% (20/32), while the I-fund wins at only 31% (10/32). But in its last 3 appearances, the I-fund has enjoyed riding shotgun with the S-fund.

Monday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 52.9%): C 53.8%, S 56.3%, I 48.5%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; long S-fund was right; short I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (August 25, 2014): C +0.48%; S +0.40%; I +0.65%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.5%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.0%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.4%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 44/75 (59%). Long: 27/42 (64%). Short: 17/33 (52%). Cash: green (13 up, 8 down); red (6 up, 4 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.4%): C 52.8%, S 54.0%, I 53.4%.
Forecast: short C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 6/red-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 54.0% (W 136, L 116). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.4%.

 

[ebbnflow]

The bulls are on fire (duh).

Tuesday: Pattern 6/red-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.4%): C 52.8%, S 54.0%, I 53.4%.
Result: short C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (August 26, 2014): C +0.11%; S +0.47%; I +0.39%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.5%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.2%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.4%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 44/75 (59%). Long: 27/42 (64%). Short: 17/33 (52%). Cash: green (13 up, 8 down); red (7 up, 4 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.5%): C 53.9%, S 52.5%, I 47.9%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; short S-fund; short I-fund.

Wednesday has pattern 7/red-grn-grn. WP (S-fund): 52.5% (W 114, L 103). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Bears can't be choosers -- we're a hungry bunch. We'll take the scrap of gains from the F-fund, anytime.

Wednesday: Pattern 7/red-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 51.5%): C 53.9%, S 52.5%, I 47.9%.
Result: cash C-fund was safe; short S-fund was right; short I-fund was wrong.
Unofficial (August 27, 2014): C +0.00%; S -0.06%; I +0.14%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (55.1%); 6/red-red-grn (54.2%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.4%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 45/76 (59%). Long: 27/42 (64%). Short: 18/34 (53%). Cash: green (13 up, 8 down); red (7 up, 4 down).

Thursday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 55.1%): C 56.8%, S 55.1%, I 53.4%.
Forecast: long C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

Thursday has pattern 4/grn-red-grn. WP (S-fund): 55.1% (W 135, L 110). Strategy: Cash > 53% and <= 55.4%.

 

[ebbnflow]

The Bears are coming! The Bears are coming!

Thursday: Pattern 4/grn-red-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 55.1%): C 56.8%, S 55.1%, I 53.4%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; cash S-fund was safe; cash I-fund was safe.
Unofficial (August 28, 2014): C -0.17%; S -0.31%; I -0.68%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.7%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.2%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.4%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 45/76 (59%). Long: 27/42 (64%). Short: 18/34 (53%). Cash: green (13 up, 9 down); red (7 up, 4 down).

Friday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.6%): C 55.6%, S 51.7%, I 56.5%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; long I-fund.

Friday has pattern 8/red-grn-red. WP (S-fund): 51.7% (W 124, L 116). Strategy: Short <= 53%.

 

[ebbnflow]

Enjoy your Labor Day weekend!

Friday: Pattern 8/red-grn-red. Win Percentage (CSI 54.6%): C 55.6%, S 51.7%, I 56.5%.
Result: long C-fund was right; short S-fund was wrong; long I-fund was right.
Unofficial (August 29, 2014): C +0.33%; S +0.58%; I +0.09%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.9%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.2%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.4%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 45/77 (58%). Long: 27/42 (64%). Short: 18/35 (51%). Cash: green (13 up, 9 down); red (7 up, 4 down).

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.0%): C 54.0%, S 56.4% (DP WP: 67.6%), I 48.7%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Tuesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. 1st DP WP (S-fund): 67.6% (W 25, L 12). Strategy: Long > 55.4%.
Wednesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. 2nd DP WP (S-fund): 62.2% (W 23, L 14). Strategy: Long > 55.4%.

 

[ebbnflow]

I've done some research over the weekend to see if there is a viable way to have weekly calls for ETFs and stocks using the patterns' S-fund strategy. The daily calls I'm making right now is suitable for margin accounts, but not for non-margin accounts.

I went back to March 26 and counted the short and long calls for each week to find the answer (majority rules). In 23 weeks, we had 9 short (WP: 5/9), 11 long (WP: 7/11), and 3 cash calls. The weekly call (WP: 60%) is not much different from the daily call's accuracy (WP: 58%). When used with TNA or TZA, the gain was over +21.5% (since March 26), which is not that bad for a 5 month period. By the way, TNA lost -3.5% during the same time.

 

[ebbnflow]

I've done some research over the weekend to see if there is a viable way to have weekly calls for ETFs and stocks using the patterns' S-fund strategy. The daily calls I'm making right now is suitable for margin accounts, but not for non-margin accounts (due to 3-day settlement rule).

I went back to March 26 and counted the short and long calls for each week to find the answer (majority rules). In 23 weeks, we had 9 short (WP: 5/9), 11 long (WP: 7/11), and 3 cash calls. The weekly call (WP: 60%) is not much different from the daily call's accuracy (WP: 58%). When used with TNA or TZA, the gain was over +21.5% (since March 26), which is not that bad for a 5 month period. By the way, TNA lost -3.5% during the same time.

Here's the weekly spreadsheet breakdown.

Long and short TNA (12/20 +21.53%).

Long TNA (7/11 +14.20%).

Short TNA (5/9 +6.42%)

Buy and hold TNA (12/23 -3.53%).

 

[ebbnflow]

Dang double pattern appearing on the 1st trading day of the month prevented the TSP system from jumping in the S-fund. But TNA (+1.66%) did well, so I'm not as angry as I should be.

Tuesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.0%): C 54.0%, S 56.4% (DP WP: 67.6%), I 48.7%.
Result: long C-fund was wrong; long S-fund was right; long I-fund was wrong. All funds follow the S-fund DP (I forgot).
Unofficial (September 02, 2014): C -0.05%; S +0.35%; I -0.06%.

Short Patterns (S-fund): 2/grn-grn-red (52.4%); 7/red-grn-grn (52.3%); 8/red-grn-red (51.9%).
Cash Patterns (S-fund): 4/grn-red-grn (54.9%); 6/red-red-grn (54.2%).
Long Patterns (S-fund): 1/grn-grn-grn (56.6%); 3/grn-red-red (56.9%); 5/red-red-red (60.3%).

S&P 500: 55.4% (7-yr. win percentage).
Strategy: short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 55.4%; long > 55.4%.
Accuracy: 46/78 (59%). Long: 28/43 (65%). Short: 18/35 (51%). Cash: green (13 up, 9 down); red (7 up, 4 down).

Wednesday: Pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. Win Percentage (CSI 53.0%): C 53.8%, S 56.6% (DP WP: 67.6%), I 48.5%.
Forecast: long C-fund; long S-fund; long I-fund. All funds follow the S-fund DP.

Wednesday has pattern 1/grn-grn-grn. 2nd DP WP (S-fund): 62.2% (W 23, L 14). Strategy: Long > 55.4%.

 

[ebbnflow]

The only chart you need to see is the daily ebbchart below. It shows everything at a glance about the S-fund strategy which we use to make the calls. If you check tomorrow's date (Sep. 04/Thursday) you will see a pattern 7/C-red, S-grn, I-grn. The S-fund has a short call and you can also see its win percentage at 52.3% in red, so the system is short TNA for tomorrow.

Now if you want to know where we got the win percentage (optional) then you check out the chart below (see pattern 7/red-grn-grn) under the S-fund (52.3%). I post the S-fund strategy everyday so you should know that < 53% is short. It's that simple.