Corepuncher's Account Talk

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Judging from how the bond market acted Friday, is it possible F fund has hit a bottom?


Updated Tracker COB 4/18/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.24 %
Current Allocation: 50F 50G
Tracker Rank: 26
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Updated Tracker COB 4/21/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.40 %
Current Allocation: 50F 50G
Tracker Rank: 25
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Updated Tracker COB 4/22/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.40 %
Current Allocation: 50F 50G
Tracker Rank: 23
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I sense some misdirection in the market! F fund doesn't know what to do! Gonna stick it out for now with my 50%.

Housing numbers came in really really bad...not only is there no end in sight, but we are in a FREEFALL! Just look at the numbers...not only are sales down, but the median prices is way down AND despite all this, inventory of unsold new homes went up A MONTH!

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/newhom.htm


Updated Tracker COB 4/24/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.19 %
Current Allocation: 50F 50G
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Updated Tracker COB 4/28/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.32 %
Current Allocation: 50F 50G
Tracker Rank: 28
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I don't like the behavior of the F fund over the last few weeks...so I'm decreasing my F to 25% and increasing G to 75%. Feels like a good time to seel some F being that it has been up 2-3 days in a row if today holds. Still think there could be a "bounce" from stimulus money but am thinking all other pressures are negative.

I am going to "play" the FED meeting tomorrow as a "sell the news" type of day, given the strong run-up we've had recently.
 
Updated Tracker COB 4/29/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.36 %
Current Allocation: 25F 75G
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Well fiddlestix...perhaps I sold my F too soon. I'd rather wait for a breakout above 103 I suppose to buy AGG...




Updated Tracker COB 4/30/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.46 %
Current Allocation: 25F 75G
Tracker Rank: 27
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Updated Tracker COB 5/2/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.48 %
Current Allocation: 25F 75G
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At this rate you might accumulate a 3% return by December - I should also speak for myself.
 
Birchtree said:
At this rate you might accumulate a 3% return by December - I should also speak for myself.
Click to expand...

Fannie Mae came in with a loss of 2.57 a share, as opposed to the "expected" -0.81. That is just ridiculous. DR Horton expected a loss of 0.39 and instead came in with -4.14.

As I look this morning, over 30% of companies are missing earnings. As I said before, I believe the markets P/E ratio estimation is too low going forward...because earnings estimates are overly bullish. I thus believe the market is overvalued. Oh yeah, oil = 120.00. That's gonna leave a mark...

Gained yet another 0.02% yesterday...and F will likely be up today. "Movin on up!"


Updated Tracker COB 5/5/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.50 %
Current Allocation: 25F 75G
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Look at the percentage of earnings that did not meet expectations:

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/PagePopup.aspx?PageId=3270

A lot of "red" on there. Down goes the E...up goes the P/E...til finally, down go the indices! Can't wait to see what all the banks have on their books.

Looks like a big up day for bonds. I was about to loose hope in them but hung on to my token holding.

Updated Tracker COB 5/8/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.58 %
Current Allocation: 25F 75G
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F fund/AGG has hit a key level below 101.00 now...a level not seen since the end of 2007. Very bearish IMO. And bad for the stock market if rates keep going up...

All G for now. I missed out on the last "rally" but didn't "lose" anything at all.

Updated Tracker COB 5/27/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.61 %
Current Allocation: 100G
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Would you look at that...my balance just keeps going up and up and up! G fund rocks! Our economy has issues...everyone has been throwing money around now it's time to pay the piper. When? It might take a while but we are going nowhere fast. Better to be in G for now, IMO...and I plan on staying here until we get a big downturn, at least 1100's S&P and I'll start nibbling.

Updated Tracker COB 6/3/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.69 %
Current Allocation: 100G
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Well, I've been "down and out" for a while, this transfer limit really had me bummed because I was doing really well going back and forth. Now that we appear to be trending back downward, I am waking up :-)

I guess technically, I like the S&P to be in the 1320-1360 range for a while. Short term I'm going for 1340 to buy some stocks...but only to turn around and sell them again as I think big picture-wise....we are sifting downward.


Updated Tracker COB 6/6/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.69 %
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: T26
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Man I'm glad I got out of the F fund when I did...that thing is absolutely tanking! That is really bad, the credit markets can't higher much higher interest rates. Higher mortgage and loan rates will be like hitting a brick wall for the economy. Hope your airbags are working! :nuts:

Personally the S&P is at or just below where I last sold at. I'm looking for a few percent lower, then I'll nibble a bit, but I'm still longer term bearish. I didn't count on the lemmings to rally the market so much soo soon. Oh well, lost out on potential gains, but have lost nothing.


Updated Tracker COB 6/11/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.77 %
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 18th
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Today is key, IMO. Specifically, whether we rebound at the end of the day, or sell off further.



Updated Tracker COB 6/12/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.77 %
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 17th
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Updated Tracker COB 6/17/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.85 %
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 21
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