Corepuncher's Account Talk

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This may or may not make sense but here goes. I was looking at the LARGE up candles back in March and April. They are basically 40+ pt S&P moves in one day (except for the four day in a row up move in late April). Anyway, in general, in march we had a big bear/bull battle between 1280 and 1320 (I like nice round numbers :), eventually breaking out above 1380 in late April.

Well, seems to me we may be "unwinding" a good portion of those trades. If you "unwind" the April moves (1325-1370) starting at the bottom of those big candles, you get 1325-45 = 1280. That is about where we are now.

Now, go back further into March. The bottoms of those big candles are right in the mid 1270's, which leads me to believe that right now at 1280, it is do or die. I like 1320 as the next resistance level, but it could be significant if we fail to find support above 1325 again. Taking the March candles downward, you arrive at 1230, which is just above the '06 lows, and, only about 26 pts below the intraday March 08 low.

So, I surmise that many of those April rally people have given up and now the big bucks that came in in March have some decisions to make? If they get out now, they lost nothing...maybe one more dip into the 1270s and we lose those people? Just a theory I guess. Another consideration is that the big rebounds in Mar/Apr were in part due to the FED intervening. Well, no dice this time! I sure hope we can get a small rally before the 4th of July, I want out! yes, I'm chicken. But then again, the market is part lemming so I should hang on to any rally JUST past the point where I think it makes no sense!


analysis1.jpg




So far we have:
Corepuncher: 1320
JTH: 1333
Squalebear: 1340
Show-me: 1360
Birchtree: 1437

For a mean of 1358. Birch is sorta an outlier. looking at my chart again I may have to move my target up to 1340...the median.
 
Sorry - I missed your poll - and I think it's a great one.

I'll interpret this as "where is the bottom"

1200

I'm not getting out - just the opposite. ;)
 
If the fed hadn't intervened with interest rate cuts and a financial bailout, the strong firms would have eaten BSC, the dollar would have stabilized, oil specs wouldn't be controlling the economy and this would mostly be behind us and we'd be looking at a better 2nd half. As it is, with their screw ups and now with them sitting on their hands, the mess will carry well into 2009. The cowards won't raise interest rates except as a political ploy, if at all.
 
we have volume! On a capitulation-like open from the futures. I bought some QLD and set a stop exactly where I bought it... willing to let this ride for a quick swing trade. I hope this puts in a short-term bottom. With TSP not being very nimble i'm a bit shaky on jumping the gun since we have no idea what price we'll be buying into at COB.
 
luv2read said:
If the fed hadn't intervened with interest rate cuts and a financial bailout, the strong firms would have eaten BSC, the dollar would have stabilized, oil specs wouldn't be controlling the economy and this would mostly be behind us and we'd be looking at a better 2nd half. As it is, with their screw ups and now with them sitting on their hands, the mess will carry well into 2009. The cowards won't raise interest rates except as a political ploy, if at all.
Click to expand...

OK... I have to admit... I really am falling in love :p:laugh::cool::cool:
 
Nice analysis CorePuncher. IYour analysis is different but consistent with what Option, Tom, Uptrend and others on the board have been seeing. I'm still 50 G, 50 stocks and losing some ground, but Ive held there since Janauary and am just slightly behind. I think we will move down, but stand by for when the rally happens. I think it's gonna be a doozy..

All the best.
FS
 
Anyone know why Yahoo Finance shows AGG as "up" 0.13%, but stockcharts.com and bigcharts show it "down" 0.25%?

AGG
 
LOL..i might actually squeak out a gain on the day! Booyah!:D

This reversal is quite bullish, at least short term, IMO. Got down near that intraday low of March and bounced right up.

Since the EFA/I FUND was down so strong today, and the U.S. markets ended UP, does that mean that the I fund share price will likely get a boost/credit today?
 
That sure was a big downward adjustment to the I fund...over 0.50%!
I assume we'll get that back soon after Europe rallies tomorrow??





Updated Tracker COB 7/01/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Today:-0.16%
2008 YTD Return: 2.89 %
Current Allocation: 30C 20I 50G
Tracker Rank: 12
----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Rest of the week Gameplan

IMO, we are set up for a monster rally in the next few days, but only if the stars align properly. Conversely, there is a chance of a monster down day, but, I put the chances of a rally at 60/40.

The players:
WED: Crude Inventories, ADP Employment report, Factory Orders
THU: Monthly Employment report, ECB Rate Decision

The action on Tue was very important and we need follow through. We bounced right off bear market levels in the S&P, and just above the low set earlier in the year. In addition, it was HIGH VOLUME. I've been predicting a 4th of July holiday rally, possibly a low volume one...but given all the fireworks ongoing (hehe), it may be anything but low volume.

Everyone is expecting the employment numbers to be bad, so I think it would take a really big negative number to cause a big downturn. The key, IMO, will be the ECB, interest rates, and OIL prices.

With the overseas markets crashing as well, I think there will be HIGH PRESSURE on the ECB NOT to raise rates. Especially with a 2% down move on Tue fresh in their minds, I'm hoping they do not raise rates. Not raising rates would be a surprise, as a hike is probably already baked in. If this does not occur, then the dollar will strengthen and hopefully, oil prices will fall...sparking a big stock rally! Regardless of employment numbers, even if bad, I think if we can get A) Larger than expected build in crude inventories WED and B) No rate hike in Europe, it will spark a major rally.

I'm currently 30C 20I 50G. I really don't know what to do at this point. I guess that is why I'm 50/50! Really, going 100 C or G is a gamble. I"ll hedge my bets at this time.

References:
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html
 
Ouch...ADP employment -79K, prior month revised down. This could <whince> make our little rally a wee-bit difficult today...
 
Corepuncher said:
Ouch...ADP employment -79K, prior month revised down. This could <whince> make our little rally a wee-bit difficult today...
Click to expand...

Rally did not materialize, as feared. I have to say, if we are down hard on Thursday, I might have to up my stock holdings significantly. My secondary target has been 1220ish. An ECB rate hike and crappy employment number might do the trick. On the other hand, no rate hike (lower oil) and a moderate employment number could easily gain back all our losses today and then some.

VIX closed at the high today, near 26. We are getting very close, IMO, to a capitulation day. Tomorrow COULD be that day if we are down big. I hope we are, in fact! All it will take is oil deflating, or the government coming up with some cockamamy plan to backstop financials, and they will be off to the races!
 
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