Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

Well, tomorrow is do or die (I think). 3 possible scenarios...

1) ECB raises rates, employment stinks, oil rises, stocks capitulate. I go all in stocks at that point.

2) ECB keeps rates steady, stocks rise. If employment is also better than expected, I might sell the monster rally that would ensue. If employment bad, I still would keep my 50% stock holding for a possible rally later based on sinking oil.

3) ECB raises rates, oil rises, employment better than expected, stocks flat.




Updated Tracker COB 7/02/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Today:-0.81%
2008 YTD Return: 2.08 %
Current Allocation: 30C 20I 50G
Tracker Rank: 12
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

I just wanted to say that I am grateful that this forum exists. It is a very pleasant place to reside and share ideas, especially when compared to some other forums out there. Thanks to everyone for making it a great place to be.

 

[Show-me]

ADP numbers are always off. Big morning with the non farm payroll. Happy Independence Day!

 

[Guest2]

I just wanted to say that I am grateful that this forum exists. It is a very pleasant place to reside and share ideas, especially when compared to some other forums out there. Thanks to everyone for making it a great place to be.

Its a person like yourself, who expresses such beliefs,
that makes this website what it is. We're lucky to have ya.

 

[kar_crazy]

I just wanted to say that I am grateful that this forum exists. It is a very pleasant place to reside and share ideas, especially when compared to some other forums out there. Thanks to everyone for making it a great place to be.

and back at you great place even if i loose like i am i like to see what everyone here are going to, hard time to pick and choose for me right now but i hope i learn

 

[Corepuncher]

Wow, S fund sure is getting annihilated lately...glad I chose not to play S. So much for it's recent outperformance.

I'm actually a little surprised we didn't go down more today...ISM was much lower than expected, Initial Claims were over 400K, and oil went up. If we can get to the point where bad news bounces off that market, that would be very bullish for a move up.

Wow, so no more trying to get the penny out of G, right? Looks like with 4 decimal places, it now pays EVERY DAY!


Updated Tracker COB 7/03/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Today:+0.16%
2008 YTD Return: 2.24 %
Current Allocation: 30C 20I 50G
Tracker Rank: 11
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

Everyone is talking about how the VIX needs to get above 30 to show fear and capitulation. The thing is, there should be LESS fear out there now since we have already dropped 20%, no?

Back in January, it took a week for the S&P to go down 10%. The VIX spiked to 30. There were very scary catalysts for the spikes in Jan and Mar. Now, oil is already super high, housing still bad, etc etc. What would be a catalyst for another spike above 30? At the price levels we are at, who is left to get "scared"? Lay people with 401K's? And then that begs the question, exactly how much of the stock market base is comprised of 401K's??

I'm still bearish but I think it's a longer term deal. I'm gonna play bounces when I can.

 

[Corepuncher]

Today is not pretty.

Speaking of VIX, we are spiking to near 27.

Maybe once we get this "30ish" mental barrier out of our heads, the market will bounce in earnest.

 

[Corepuncher]

Check out the "valuation" of the various market indices using the P/E ratio:

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html?mod=topnav_2_3000

The first column is the CURRENT P/E ratio using the current price and trailing 12 months earnings. Now, compare that to the ^ estimated or next 12 months. Some very big discrepancies.

Both Down Transports and Dow Utilities "appear" to be fairly priced, or at least consistent, showing little change in P/E expected using forecast earnings. This, in my estimation, means that they EXPECT earnings to be similar over the next 12 months to the previous 12. Now look at the Russell 2000...whoa! Does this mean that all the companies in the Russell are expecting, on average, a 300% increase in earnings to lower the P/E that much?? Am I missing something? I'm not going near the S fund, because I think, if anything, companies will earn LESS not MORE!

Current S&P earnings expectations appear to be forecasting a 150% increase in earnings over the next 12 months. I just don't understand, aren't earning, on average, going to decrease over the next 12 months? Thereby INCREASING P/E ratios?? Am I just stupid or something? Maybe the forecast PE also does an INCREASE of the stock market at some nominal rate as an estimation? Or, if they are wrong and earnings actually decrease, the market gets more and more expensive and we go down further?

 

[Birchtree]

Financial earnings are estimated to decrease by 60%. Most everything else will have a positive earnings slope. Energy is predicted to be up 25% and technology will be up 18%. I suspose there is the slight possibility that some of the financials may actually write up some of their earnings having written too much off to the downside. I've been buying the banks with a blind fold on fishing for their bottom.

 

[Corepuncher]

Still waiting for 1220 or lower to buy in. I think we hit a pretty good floor in the upper 1100's from which to rally. I only have 1 transaction left to buy this month so I'm gonna wait for a better price.


Updated Tracker COB 7/07/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Today:-0.24%
2008 YTD Return: 2.00 %
Current Allocation: 30C 20I 50G
Tracker Rank: 12
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

Waiting for the S&P to break 1283, which was my last entry point. Then I'll sell, and possibly buy more back if we tank before the end of the month. Target for sell has been 1320. The nice thing is I could then sell one more time for a 3rd transaction.

Wow, a gain yesterday. Sure feels good!

If we can hold relatively flat and/or eek out a gain today, I think it would be bullish going into Thu/Fri. Interestingly, oil is only up 0.50 today, despite a huge drawdown in inventories. The day oil stops going up when bullish data comes out, is the day to watch out for poppage of the bubble.


Updated Tracker COB 7/08/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Today: 0.40%
2008 YTD Return: 2.40 %
Current Allocation: 30C 20I 50G
Tracker Rank: 13
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

I sure am glad we got rid of those stupid numeric usernames for TSP...much much easier to remember now!

And is it me, or does the S&P like to hit 20 pt increments on the average? Take a look....

 

[airlift]

Corepuncher,
Did the TSP take a long time to process the change, or is that a quick thing?

 

[Corepuncher]

Corepuncher,
Did the TSP take a long time to process the change, or is that a quick thing?

Just go to the website and change it...

http://www.tsp.gov/curinfo/login/custom-ID.html


Updated Tracker COB 7/09/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Today: -0.78%
2008 YTD Return: 1.62 %
Current Allocation: 30C 20I 50G
Tracker Rank: 15
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

Well the S&P has just rocketed up 5 pts in no time...getting a littler further away from that 1240-1245 danger zone.

T-24 minutes to deadline. Maybe tomorrow will be a better buying opportunity? FWIW the F fund still has not proven itself to me chart-wise.

UPDATE: T-2 minutes. Guess there is no hurry to buy in today even for a down day...if we break this 1240 at close, we're going down more so then would be a better time to buy some C.

Still 50G, 30C 20I...with 2 rounds of ammo remaining.

 

[Corepuncher]

I get the feeling that once the shorts get squeezed...there could be one big rally...like 4-5% in one day. I don't think this will occur for a little while though. I think we first need to test 1200 on the S&P...still like my 1320 for the first upside ceiling. One scenario could be we fail to break decisively above 1280...and head back down to test 1200-1220. Maybe we break intraday into the 1170's or 1180's for an intermediate low/capitulation. I don't know when this will occur though...but I would think sooner rather than later. Then, I will sell the rally because I think there will be another downturn into the holiday season because Santa is broke this year.

 

[Corepuncher]

I was thinking last night about "catching the bottom" of this market...and how this might occur.

Due to extreme short interest out there, I get the feeling the bottom may not be far off...at least an intermediate term bottom for a few months.

Couple this with the fact that with our TSP, we have to get in at the close of the day, not necessarily the low. What I'm saying is that the low will likely come on a big move day. What has been a big move day in the past, well, maybe 40-50 S&P points max. A realistic low could be 1170-1180. Now take that up 40-50 and you get 1210-1230 range. NOW couple this with the fact that it may be a "V" bottom rather than a bottom at the COB... (I can just imagine the flood of short covering once we break 1200 on a big day) and you come up with a scenario whereby for TSP'ers, we are very near the point where you should go all in! Futures deep in the red this morning...Stand by...

Updated Tracker COB 7/10/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Today: +0.23
2008 YTD Return: 1.85 %
Current Allocation: 30C 20I 50G
Tracker Rank: 15
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

Perhaps this logic is flawed, but here goes.

Yesterday, as the "in the money stocks" analyst said, was quite bullish. We tested the "1240 ish" level twice intraday and held, despite FAN/FRED meltdown and oil rocketing up.

Now, look at today. Same story so far. Upper 1230's is holding...so far despite high oil and a big financial smackdown!

I am inclined to think we will close deep in the red and selling may accelerate later in the day. If this is the case, we may end up close to my "go zone" for buying of 1220. If, on the other hand, we rebound out of this thick red mess, that would be extremely BULLISH, AND...Capitulatory for the SHORTS, IMO.

Therefore, in almost either scenario, it sounds like a good time to buy more stock.. Question is which fund? I don't like I fund that much as of late. S fund seems good realtive to financials. Not sure. Might just go C.

 

[Corepuncher]

Preliminary move (subject to change)

NEW: 45 C 45 S 10 G

PREVIOUS: 30 C 20 I 50 G