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Corepuncher's Account Talk
- Thread starter Corepuncher
- Start date
Corepuncher
Well-known member
After "missing" the latest rally, the S&P is just below where I last sold my stock funds at. So, it is very tempting to buy a big chunk of C fund today.
Looking at the charts, the 1320-1330 range seems to have quite a bit of support. Since we are in a downtrend, with MACD now below zero and firmly under signal line, I'm gonna wait for a potential break of 1320. I feel there is a good chance of this occurring. Sure, we might get an oversold bounce soon, but, gonna continue to be patient, and maybe it will pay off. I always seem to make my moves too quickly because I get excited and like the idea of "locking in" X% gain right away.
Bond yields going up/ AGG going down is not a good sign. I think it is an especially bad sign when stocks are going DOWN instead of UP given the bond action. Things are messed up right now. I'll take my chances and wait for a panic sell before buying.
Looking at the charts, the 1320-1330 range seems to have quite a bit of support. Since we are in a downtrend, with MACD now below zero and firmly under signal line, I'm gonna wait for a potential break of 1320. I feel there is a good chance of this occurring. Sure, we might get an oversold bounce soon, but, gonna continue to be patient, and maybe it will pay off. I always seem to make my moves too quickly because I get excited and like the idea of "locking in" X% gain right away.
Bond yields going up/ AGG going down is not a good sign. I think it is an especially bad sign when stocks are going DOWN instead of UP given the bond action. Things are messed up right now. I'll take my chances and wait for a panic sell before buying.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Well we have a blank economic calendar today and also Monday. I wonder if that means whatever happens today, will tend to carry through on Monday?
A decent gap down at the open and market internals are showing 80+% declines and down volume. To me, this suggests that the negativity should continue through the day. But then again I'm not expert on this quad-witching stuff either.
Interesting how much the S fund his holding up...it's definitely showing relative strength compared to C and I.
Thinking of playing a bit here and perhaps buying some stocks. 25 or 50% for a short term play. This alone should make everyone want to quickly jump to G!
I think we could bounce around this 1320 level for a while...maybe we can knife through it today, but then perhaps bounce. Also, if we recover today, that might be a good sign for a continued bounce. Either way, I think this S&P level is a good one to play...but not 100%.
A decent gap down at the open and market internals are showing 80+% declines and down volume. To me, this suggests that the negativity should continue through the day. But then again I'm not expert on this quad-witching stuff either.
Interesting how much the S fund his holding up...it's definitely showing relative strength compared to C and I.
Thinking of playing a bit here and perhaps buying some stocks. 25 or 50% for a short term play. This alone should make everyone want to quickly jump to G!
I think we could bounce around this 1320 level for a while...maybe we can knife through it today, but then perhaps bounce. Also, if we recover today, that might be a good sign for a continued bounce. Either way, I think this S&P level is a good one to play...but not 100%.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Made up my mind, no buying today. I'll wait for a "whoosh"
What really gets me is how controlled this latest selloff has been. We've dropped 100 S&P points in a month, and most of the down days were really not that spectacularly large. Almost like people are comfortable and agree on the fact that the market should be going down.
Oh yeah and ambac and mbia lost their AAA ratings...why was this not front page news? I thought this was one of the biggest fears out there??? Did we forget?
From karl denninger blog:
MBIA and Ambac lost their last AAA ratings yesterday when Moody's stripped them. That's that. The ugly here is that this is likely to trigger somewhere between 70 and 200 billion more in writedowns and/or forced asset sales. This, of course, has not been reserved for by the banks:
The true ugly hits if these downgrades continue and sends the insurers below investment grade. Such a downgrade threatens to bankrupt virtually any bank that holds covered assets, as the impact would be a reserve requirement that jumps to more than 100 times what it is for AAA paper. This, obviously, isn't going to be allowed to happen - banks will unload this paper now rather than take the risk of instantaneous insolvency.
I believe that continued downgrades to below investment grade (if these firms survive at all) are inevitable - as such, it is my view that this is a storm that cannot be avoided, and those who have made investment decisions believing that the "credit crunch" was in the 7th or 8th inning are going to be destroyed.
What really gets me is how controlled this latest selloff has been. We've dropped 100 S&P points in a month, and most of the down days were really not that spectacularly large. Almost like people are comfortable and agree on the fact that the market should be going down.
Oh yeah and ambac and mbia lost their AAA ratings...why was this not front page news? I thought this was one of the biggest fears out there??? Did we forget?
From karl denninger blog:
MBIA and Ambac lost their last AAA ratings yesterday when Moody's stripped them. That's that. The ugly here is that this is likely to trigger somewhere between 70 and 200 billion more in writedowns and/or forced asset sales. This, of course, has not been reserved for by the banks:
"The downgrades end more than seven months of speculation about whether the bond insurers would keep their top ratings at all three firms. Five of seven companies lost their top ratings as projections for losses on securities backed by home loans surged and confidence in the companies collapsed, causing municipalities to shun their insurance. The downgrades span more than $2 trillion of debt sold by issuers ranging from school districts and sewer authorities to Wall Street firms."
That's gonna leave a mark (on your balance sheet!)
The true ugly hits if these downgrades continue and sends the insurers below investment grade. Such a downgrade threatens to bankrupt virtually any bank that holds covered assets, as the impact would be a reserve requirement that jumps to more than 100 times what it is for AAA paper. This, obviously, isn't going to be allowed to happen - banks will unload this paper now rather than take the risk of instantaneous insolvency.
I believe that continued downgrades to below investment grade (if these firms survive at all) are inevitable - as such, it is my view that this is a storm that cannot be avoided, and those who have made investment decisions believing that the "credit crunch" was in the 7th or 8th inning are going to be destroyed.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Updated Tracker COB 6/20/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.85 %
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 15
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----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: 2.85 %
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 15
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Financials down another 3% today, 21.47 for the XLF is a 5-6 year low!!! How often does a sector reach that type of a low? And not just any sector....this one is tied to the lifes blood of the U.S. economy...credit.
I thought about "playing" the FED meeting and economic data this week. But, why risk it? If the fed is dovish, it sends Oil higher and dollar lower. If hawkish, financials should go down furthers. In either case, it sucks for the consumer. New home sales come out...maybe they will hold steady, but I don't think that matters. There is a lag and interest rates have skyrocketed recently. That will put more downward pressure on the number of people qualified for home loans.
I am going to try to hold out until we test recent lows of 1270 ish. We also have the RBS prediction "looming" haha! Oh, and the SEC transparency dealy for financial institutions. That should have the crooks shaking a bit, I would think.
Like Tom showed in this blog today, many of the indicators like VIX and Put/Call ratio are nowhere near extreme levels we have seen at the bottom. Therefore, I predict, it just means we have quite a lot more pain to come before a bottom is reached. We are clearly in a mighty downtrend. Be patient before buying and don't freak out if you are waiting in G. There is almost zero chance of a market turn-around such that we would start going up and never look back. It will become obvious when that occurs...oil will be 70 dollars a barrel...housing numbers will start going up again and the financials will have all the writedowns off their books. Don't forget we also have a holiday season to get through...I don't think it will be pretty.
Edit: I will make a prediction, for better or worse! I predict the FED day will be a sell the news day. I don't think they will tell us anything new. No rate change...but more hawkish stance on inflation. No crack dealt out this time. Remember the day back in March when the market was tanking? Then the FED "Swooped in" and saved the day? Superman has been fed kryptonite and this time, there will be nobody to stop the bleeding when we have our crash. We really do need a nice capitulation.
I thought about "playing" the FED meeting and economic data this week. But, why risk it? If the fed is dovish, it sends Oil higher and dollar lower. If hawkish, financials should go down furthers. In either case, it sucks for the consumer. New home sales come out...maybe they will hold steady, but I don't think that matters. There is a lag and interest rates have skyrocketed recently. That will put more downward pressure on the number of people qualified for home loans.
I am going to try to hold out until we test recent lows of 1270 ish. We also have the RBS prediction "looming" haha! Oh, and the SEC transparency dealy for financial institutions. That should have the crooks shaking a bit, I would think.
Like Tom showed in this blog today, many of the indicators like VIX and Put/Call ratio are nowhere near extreme levels we have seen at the bottom. Therefore, I predict, it just means we have quite a lot more pain to come before a bottom is reached. We are clearly in a mighty downtrend. Be patient before buying and don't freak out if you are waiting in G. There is almost zero chance of a market turn-around such that we would start going up and never look back. It will become obvious when that occurs...oil will be 70 dollars a barrel...housing numbers will start going up again and the financials will have all the writedowns off their books. Don't forget we also have a holiday season to get through...I don't think it will be pretty.
Edit: I will make a prediction, for better or worse! I predict the FED day will be a sell the news day. I don't think they will tell us anything new. No rate change...but more hawkish stance on inflation. No crack dealt out this time. Remember the day back in March when the market was tanking? Then the FED "Swooped in" and saved the day? Superman has been fed kryptonite and this time, there will be nobody to stop the bleeding when we have our crash. We really do need a nice capitulation.
Last edited:
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Fun Poll:
======================================================
Will the markets end the week of 6/23-6/27 HIGHER or LOWER??
======================================================
Corepuncher = Lower (but perhaps just off the low which may be Wed or Thur)
======================================================
Will the markets end the week of 6/23-6/27 HIGHER or LOWER??
======================================================
Corepuncher = Lower (but perhaps just off the low which may be Wed or Thur)
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Consumer confidence number = "ouch"
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
I assume that is why the big leg down at 10AM EDT
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
I assume that is why the big leg down at 10AM EDT
Corepuncher
Well-known member
The charts, to me, are just ugly!
IF Market keeps falling this week:
My tentative plan is to buy C fund (75%) at an S&P target of < 1280, then see how it behaves and go from there. Below that, I would guess 1220 would be support, going back to June '06. I would like to think I have enough guts to stay all out until lower 1200's then go all in, but we'll see.
ELSE IF Market stops bleeding and rallies this week:
If we do start to rally again, I will look for a ceiling at 1370-1380 on the S&P...but would likely be cautious if I own any stock and get out around 1365.
Updated Tracker COB 6/24/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: 2.93 %
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 14
----------------------------------------------------------------------
IF Market keeps falling this week:
My tentative plan is to buy C fund (75%) at an S&P target of < 1280, then see how it behaves and go from there. Below that, I would guess 1220 would be support, going back to June '06. I would like to think I have enough guts to stay all out until lower 1200's then go all in, but we'll see.
ELSE IF Market stops bleeding and rallies this week:
If we do start to rally again, I will look for a ceiling at 1370-1380 on the S&P...but would likely be cautious if I own any stock and get out around 1365.
Updated Tracker COB 6/24/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: 2.93 %
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 14
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Well, I ended up buying 30% C 20% I and left 50% in G. unfortunately, i was unable to do the tracker online (what else is new), as I was actually at the airport, now in (cloudy) st. pete's beach FL.
I feel really really good about hitting my first price target of S&P 1270-1280! Yesssssssss! That is a good 5% down from where I last sold. Patience paid off.
Now, I have a secondary target of 1220, or near '06 lows. Who knows if we will get there. I will be waiting.....
I feel really really good about hitting my first price target of S&P 1270-1280! Yesssssssss! That is a good 5% down from where I last sold. Patience paid off.
Now, I have a secondary target of 1220, or near '06 lows. Who knows if we will get there. I will be waiting.....
WIND_HUNTER
Member
Nice job! I would like to buy now also, but have to wait til July. Just got back from Pensacola and had a great time. Never been to St petes but I've heard the beaches are awesome. Thanks for posting your moves. Good Luck!
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Didn't expect much today, my C shares went down a bit but having some in I mitigated that loss. I have 1 IFT left for June. This could definitely be used on Monday to buy more shares, IF it is a decent down day. Then, I'd be in stocks to start July, which is good...can sell to G, IFT to stocks once more and then move back to G again. One of the more experienced floor guys was on CNBC today, and he mentioned a typicaly response to a huge down THUR was for less participation/more boring day on Friday, followed by a big down Monday. I will be hoping this occurs. He seems to think there could be a capitulation next week. I just couldn't refuse buying on such weakness the other day though. I'm fairly happy where I'm at and ready to make some money!
Updated Tracker COB 6/27/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Today: -0.02%
2008 YTD Return: 2.91 %
Current Allocation: 30C 20I 50G
Tracker Rank: 12 ("We're a-moving on up...(sing it with me!))
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Updated Tracker COB 6/27/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Today: -0.02%
2008 YTD Return: 2.91 %
Current Allocation: 30C 20I 50G
Tracker Rank: 12 ("We're a-moving on up...(sing it with me!))
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Corepuncher
Well-known member
With everyone talking about a capitulation bottom coming soon...that begs the question, what happens when EVERYONE is waiting for a capitulation bottom (presumably, in order to buy??)
Maybe this will stall when the bottom comes...enabling a short term rally to ensue (but not very much, 1-2%).
I still think the economy has issues in the longer term range, so I will continue to hedge toward G, and playing a bit when I can.
Maybe this will stall when the bottom comes...enabling a short term rally to ensue (but not very much, 1-2%).
I still think the economy has issues in the longer term range, so I will continue to hedge toward G, and playing a bit when I can.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
I sort of agree with you. :nuts: But, it is still dangerous.
Gigantic market crashes all at once are rare...so it does not pay to try to predict one. That being said, I do believe we are still going down down down. I am continually amazed how the market can go up on some days. I guess it can be said the market is "naturally buoyant", meaning that in the absence of significant downward pressure, it just wants to go up.
So...I have my 50% in stocks right now but I'll be ready to sell. I know that the light volume days leading up to the 4th of July seem to be up as far as I can remember. So, I might play it that way.
There is a chance that "this time it is different", and that we can throw history out the window, and credit disaster for the U.S. will occur. I believe it is inevitable if OIL PRICES STAY SO HIGH. Watch what happens when people can't put gas on their credit cards anymore!
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Market internals are looking much better right now...could lock in a small profit but I'm gonna be "greedy" and wait for that pre-4th of july holiday rally!
I'm won't be caught dead at S&P 1320 so I'll likely bail before then. Major resistance IMO around 1320. Better to be in stocks at beginning of month, so you can go to G then back to stocks then back to G (if you wanna risk it).
I'm won't be caught dead at S&P 1320 so I'll likely bail before then. Major resistance IMO around 1320. Better to be in stocks at beginning of month, so you can go to G then back to stocks then back to G (if you wanna risk it).
kaitlinsnana
Member
Hi Guys, I'm in a money market fund with Vanguard, but I'm looking... Inflation is scary. I'm looking at Brasileiro Petroleo, but I've never bought an individual stock before . Any thoughts --
Gail
.
Gail
.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Be really careful Gail - especially during this time of Market uncertainty and volitility. The Money Market Fund will keep you a float and is easier on your stomach.
Individual stocks could go a lot further down before they go back up and this "trying time" may last another 6 months (or more).
GL in whatever you decide - just make sure whatever you invest is money you can afford to lose and be sure it's in something that has a long term payoff.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
For those of us who are bearish but playing a bounce, lets take a poll as to what level you will get out at...
NOTE: My last poll garnered no votes
=== Short term bounce target S&P ===
Corepuncher = 1320
==========================
Updated Tracker COB 6/30/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Today:0.14%
2008 YTD Return: 3.05 %
Current Allocation: 30C 20I 50G
Tracker Rank: 12
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTE: My last poll garnered no votes
=== Short term bounce target S&P ===
Corepuncher = 1320
==========================
Updated Tracker COB 6/30/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Today:0.14%
2008 YTD Return: 3.05 %
Current Allocation: 30C 20I 50G
Tracker Rank: 12
----------------------------------------------------------------------
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