Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/27/new...tney.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008032810

"The best-case scenario is that financial firms take the pain quickly and purge assets from their balance sheets. That could bring stock valuations down by as much as 50%, which would be enough so that you could legitimately buy long-term positions," says Whitney.

 

[Corepuncher]

The 1320 level appears to be major key technical level for the S&P this year. We have bounced off of or closed near 1320 +/- 5 pts 13 times since January 18th.

I wouldn't be surprised if we try to eek out a small gain by the close today...but I believe it will only be a small victory...and next week there will be much downside potential. If we stay near this 1320 much longer I bet we fall freely to 1300, and probably below once again. Hoping its the beginning of an F fund rally!

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 3/28/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.37 %
Current Allocation: 50F 50G
Tracker Rank: 11
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[Corepuncher]

Faxed today
===========================

Mr. Emswiler,

Thank you for accepting my comments on this important issue.

I have heard many suggestions on which course of action would be best for all parties involved. I have made a few observations and will offer my suggestions for consideration.

First, there is the issue of fairness as far as changing the rules go. TSP participants have accumulated large sums of money over the years under the existing rule set. We have maintained our accounts under one set of rules, but now the rules are changing? Unfortunately, there is no way for participants to withdraw or transfer our existing account balances into a privately owned retirement fund that would continue to give us the flexibility we desire. Had we known about the possibility of a change in the rules, we could have opened up another account on the side and could have been contributing to that fund in addition to the TSP.

Please consider: Allowing participants a way to roll all or a portion of their TSP balances into a private account of their choice.

Please consider: That many TSP participants, including myself, will likely reduce their contributions to 5% in order to get the agency matching, the place the rest of their contributions elsewhere. How much will this effectively cost the TSP compared to the frequent trading fees?

If you are going to limit the number of transactions so severely, why not allow the more active participants a way to pay for more numerous transactions? The reasons against this, in my opinion are quite lame, including the “someone might accidentally push a button” theory. That of course is ridiculous! As it stands now I might “accidentally” buy stocks high and sell them low but there is no safeguard against that is there? (And it would result in much higher financial loss in comparison).

Please consider: Allowing for a fee based transaction above the allotted 2 per month.

Is it legal and/or fair that a few are deciding the fate of so many? Why not let the people vote? I read that the average cost per TSP participant has risen to 4 dollars a year. That is the equivalent of maybe 1/1000th of 1% per year? It would be interesting to see, given a choice, if people would pay a measly 4 bucks a year for the freedom to actively manage their accounts, vs. saving 4 dollars and being limited.

Please consider: Allowing TSP participants to vote on this issue.

Finally, if the 2 transaction per month action does pass, PLEASE CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING:

Limit the number of transactions to 24 per year, rather than 2 per month.

This, to me, seems like a win-win for everyone. It would still limit, over the average of a year, the total amount and thus the cost of the transactions, yet it would…

A) Allow for more active trading during volatile times (you could use it all up in 1 month if you wanted).
B) It would not penalize participants during MORE STABLE market conditions when they do not make ANY transactions for extended periods of time. The penalty, in these cases, would be “unused credits”. Even the more active participants can go many months without making any fund transfers at all.

Please consider making this minor change. Again, 24 transactions per year would cost the same as 2 a month, and allow the users much more flexibility. I cannot think of any logical reason not to employ this alternative.

Thank you for your time.

==============================================
You may mail or fax comments on this proposed regulation to Thomas K. Emswiler, General Counsel, Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board, 1250 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C.20005 (fax number -- (202) 942-1676). Comments must be received by April 9, 2008. Comments submitted in response to the interim regulation need not be resubmitted; they will be considered as part of this rulemaking process.

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 4/2/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.17 %
Current Allocation: 50F 50G
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[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 4/3/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.21 %
Current Allocation: 50F 50G
Tracker Rank: 18
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[Corepuncher]

F fund is up nearly 1% as we speak...an enormous move for the F fund! I'm putting more in F on any pullback. We should probably test 103.5 on the AGG.

Jobs number was worse than expected. Oil is 100+. Housing bubble. Once the "euphoria" of the banks not going to immediately to s#%t fades, I think the looming recession will take hold and stock prices will adjust further southward.

 

[Corepuncher]

F fund is up nearly 1% as we speak...an enormous move for the F fund! I'm putting more in F on any pullback. We should probably test 103.5 on the AGG.

Jobs number was worse than expected. Oil is 100+. Housing bubble. Once the "euphoria" of the banks not going to immediately to s#%t fades, I think the looming recession will take hold and stock prices will adjust further southward.

Also, if the last 20 years is any indication, you are simply playing with fire by being in stocks right now until the longer term moving averages cross back over in a bullish manner.
http://ticker-classics.denninger.net/

 

[Corepuncher]

Stock Valuations

Is the stock market fairly valued, or perhaps overvalued? Lets take a look... from http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html?mod=topnav_2_3000

So let me get this straight, if the S&P is fairly valued at 1370, in order for the P/E ESTIMATE for the next 12 months to go to 14.44, that means that on average, earnings are expected to increase by 144% compared to today. HA! Look at the Russell 2K, even worse. Am I missing something here, or is the stock market still WAY overvalued at present?

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 4/4/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.54 %
Current Allocation: 50F 50G
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[Corepuncher]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080406/us_nm/greenspan_recession_dc_2

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 4/8/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.50 %
Current Allocation: 50F 50G
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[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 4/9/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.71 %
Current Allocation: 50F 50G
Tracker Rank: 15th
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[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 4/10/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.55 %
Current Allocation: 50F 50G
Tracker Rank: 16
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[Corepuncher]

Re: Stock Valuations

UPS the other day, now GE today. GE was supposedly one of those companies with enough "global exposure" to make up for the slowing US economy, no? Throw that out the window. The "E" in the "P/E" is dwindling, and current stock market valuations are looking more and more expensive.

I did a back of the envelope calcualation, and in order for the S&P to be at a P/E of 15, using TODAYS earnings, the S&P would have to go to 981.

Current PE of S&P is 20.79: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html?mod=topnav_2_3000

981

I sooooo think the economy is just now entering a recession, one that will be long and deep, just like Greenspan alluded to as a possibility. There is the credit and housing bubble, then consumer credit bubble to deal with.

Check out the rising credit graph...

Found here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120779065895103637.html?mod=todays_us_personal_journal

Looking back, April 7th might have been a key day. Hit 1386, just short of our previous top of 1387/1388 we hit on 2/26-27th. I see a pattern here, LOWER HIGHS and it goes back a long time!

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 4/11/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.67 %
Current Allocation: 50F 50G
Tracker Rank: 15
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[Corepuncher]

What do ya know, companies missing earnings and lowering guidance are coming out of the woodwork! An economist from Goldman Sachs is predicting another 12% fall in the S&P as earnings continue to fall.



Updated Tracker COB 4/14/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.63 %
Current Allocation: 50F 50G
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[Corepuncher]

Did my eyes deceive me, or was Intel just up nearly 8% after earnings came out after hours and now as I look it is back down 1% ??


Updated Tracker COB 4/15/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.51 %
Current Allocation: 50F 50G
Tracker Rank: 15
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[Corepuncher]

Damn...that F fund has really tanked as of late, and it's not even going up today (so far) even given a bearish read on Philly Fed index.

The charts for AGG show that we need to hold this 101.50 level or else we may keep going down. Might take a chance and buy some more F today.




Updated Tracker COB 4/16/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.22 %
Current Allocation: 50F 50G
Tracker Rank: T23
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[Corepuncher]

OK...F fund can stop going down now!!!


Updated Tracker COB 4/17/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.16 %
Current Allocation: 50F 50G
Tracker Rank: 23
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