Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker 3/7/08
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2008 YTD Return: -2.94 %
% Increase Shares from shorting: 5.7 %
Current Allocation: 100C
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NOTE: It is ironic how I am 100% in the market watching my original forecast verify . I just can't seem to stop myself from going 100% in or out. I need to do it more slowly!

 

[Frozen]

Nest question, professor; can you explain "% Increase Shares from shorting: 5.7 %"? I know ths basic concept of shorting the market, but can't see how TSP trades allow one to go short...

 

[presskh]

Nest question, professor; can you explain "% Increase Shares from shorting: 5.7 %"? I know ths basic concept of shorting the market, but can't see how TSP trades allow one to go short...

It seems that the only way to posibly short the TSP stock funds is buy the F fund. However, this fund frequently also drops when the stock fund drop, so it is not a sure bet.

 

[Corepuncher]

It seems that the only way to posibly short the TSP stock funds is buy the F fund. However, this fund frequently also drops when the stock fund drop, so it is not a sure bet.

Maybe my terminology is wrong. I just meant from selling high and buying low. When you do that, your % balance does not increase but you picked up shares. This is not reflected in the tracker.

 

[Corepuncher]

Not only a lopsided up day, but it looks like we are on track to be the largest volume day in quite a while. Some conviction in terms of participation?? Could be the start of a mini rally.

While I am still bearish and think there are many problems to be worked out...I must admit that in my experience, RARELY does the entire system just break down, at last not instantly! If you bet on that actually happening, you are probably going to be disappointed more often than not. I want the market to go down as much as the next bear but I have to be real.

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker

Updated Tracker COB 3/13/08
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2008 YTD Return: +0.97 %
% Increase Shares from shorting: 5.7 %
Current Allocation: 100C
Rank: 13
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[Corepuncher]

I am extremely nervous about the FOMC policy statement next week.

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker

Updated Tracker COB 3/17/08
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2008 YTD Return: -1.93 %
% Increase Shares from shorting: 5.7 %
Current Allocation: 100C
Rank: T38
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Hmm...futures up big this morning. I like how our volume has been going through the roof as of late...lets put in a bottom (short term). I still think that once we get through this "credit crisis" there will still be the matter of a real recession based on economics! Looking for a good sell point > 1328 S&P.

 

[Corepuncher]

I'm not complaining, but I wonder why I did not receive a TSP letter? I made like 30 transactions last year. Most were from G to F to G though...wonder if that had something to do with it?

 

[Corepuncher]

Fricken sweet! 4+ percent in a day...can't beat that.

Updated Tracker COB 3/18/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.29 %
% Increase Shares from shorting: 5.7 %
Current Allocation: 100C
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[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 3/18/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.29 %
Increase Shares from selling high/buying low: 5.7 % (minus contributions)
Current Allocation: 100C
Tracker Rank: 7th
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

Is it just me or does the AGG/F fund show a nice double bottom? May be the place to be once this rally fades.

 

[fabijo]

Corepuncher, I just read through some of your posts. I like your thinking. In the long run, it is about getting more shares.

Do you have a spreadsheet or something that is helping you keep track of the shares you are picking up (not counting the biweekly contributions)?

 

[Show-me]

Is it just me or does the AGG/F fund show a nice double bottom? May be the place to be once this rally fades.

I see it too.

 

[Corepuncher]

Corepuncher, I just read through some of your posts. I like your thinking. In the long run, it is about getting more shares.

Do you have a spreadsheet or something that is helping you keep track of the shares you are picking up (not counting the biweekly contributions)?

Not really. I do keep all my transactions in a spreadsheet though.

This is what I do. I go to a starting point (say January 1st), and take a look at my balance, then, find out how many shares of C fund it would be. If I was 100C at that time, that makes it easy!

Then I take my current account balance, and go back and subtract my contributions. Then, I convert that adjusted balance to C fund shares at the current price. It's not exact, but good enough for an estimate.

 

[Corepuncher]

Currently debating whether or not to sell some C fund. I am grateful we bounced back up past my 1328 buy point. Oscar thinks bonds are going down and the market may rally a bit, but he thinks the S&P will go right back down again next week.

I'm hoping for some follow through rally through the end of this week. I'm gonna sell some but can't decide how much. I like my C fund right now, but hate to be 100% in during a bear. MACD has crossed over the signal line though, which is usually a good sign (assuming a + close today).

Like Steadygain just mentioned, things still look gloomy for many sectors of the economy.

 

[Corepuncher]

Moved 25% to G. Now 75% C. It's the least I can do...don't want to get to greed! LOL. Each day we go up I'll take some more off. I'm scared of the Philly Fed and jobless claims spoiling the euphoria....

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

If we go down Thur, I might just buy some more and hope for a pre-holiday Easter rally on Friday to sell into.

 

[Corepuncher]

Looks like the F fund (AGG) is having trouble breaking above the 103.40 or so. If we do close above that, I will move to F.

 

[Corepuncher]

Hey folks, check out this graph of the 13 week T Bill yield (in 10's of basis points)...

So it's effectively zero...lower than it was at the depth of the last recession. People seem to be storing a lot of nuts for the winter?

I'm looking to sell as we go up. 1350 or so is my target to be 50% out, and > 1380 all out (if we make it that far).



Updated Tracker COB 3/20/08
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: 1.70 %
Increase Shares from selling high/buying low: 5.7 % (minus contributions)
Current Allocation: 25G 75C
Tracker Rank: T-11th-----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

Looks like the F fund is going to breakout. I'm moving my G into F. Also, I am getting excited about the prospects of a little surge in C fund maybe into the 1350-1360 range for me to then SELL and buy F!