Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

Hmmm, F fund is down about 0.70% this morning. Could be a good time to buy if we reverse again...it was about to breakout a couple days ago and could resume.

Back to stock TA, we broke through 1340 today, and if we continue higher or hold, I think the next major level will be 1370. Might take another 25% off the table COB today to secure some recent gains. That would leave me 50% invested in C for now.

 

[Corepuncher]

Making transfer, I think this rally today is a gift. Look what its rallying on!

Also, we are up 100 pts on the S&P in 4 trading days!


I would have killed for S&P 1355 a few days ago so I'm not gonna get greedy. I'll keep a token 25% in C, moving 25% to F and 50% G. F fund is down big today, good time for a bounce tomorrow.

I could be wrong and this rally goes a couple more days, but I'm not good enought to hit the top. What is the top, BTW? 1370? 1380? Also, we have been up only 2 or 3 days in a row this year. Last time we were up 4 days in a row was Christmas time '07.

 

[Reactive1]

Very difficult market IMO to assess, but keep in mind you still have a declining 50 DMA even as the 50DMA has been broken on the indexes so it's a crucial moment. I personally would predict a flat to down day tommorrow, + small to -15 on the S&P, while any further upward movement meets MAJOR resistence. I'm hoping for consolidation and down into next week so I can re-assess for next week, unable to move with the IFT limits. Hell, I don't know, lol.

http://www.youtube.com/user/thermal1

Making transfer, I think this rally today is a gift. Look what its rallying on!

Also, we are up 100 pts on the S&P in 4 trading days!


I would have killed for S&P 1355 a few days ago so I'm not gonna get greedy. I'll keep a token 25% in C, moving 25% to F and 50% G. F fund is down big today, good time for a bounce tomorrow.

I could be wrong and this rally goes a couple more days, but I'm not good enought to hit the top. What is the top, BTW? 1370? 1380? Also, we have been up only 2 or 3 days in a row this year. Last time we were up 4 days in a row was Christmas time '07.

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 3/24/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.85 %
Current Allocation: 50G 25F 25C
Tracker Rank: 9th
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[Corepuncher]

I read that the bear strearns "bailout" is actually costing the average tax payer about half of their stimulus refund!

This whole thing stinks...and just wait until all the legalities start running rampant...you know there will be all kinds of lawsuits. I think the US Government may even be fair game.

Precariously perched, we are. Way too unstable. I'm predicting a 100 pt long down candle on the S&P before years end. It may come soon...say after we fail to break 1380-1400 range and we bunker bust back down through 1250.

 

[Corepuncher]

I'm getting the predicted F fund bounce today and am selling my F fund shares for a small profit. Will keep 25% in C fund for now to hedge against a further rally to 1370. The rest, 75%, is now in G. Could still be some money to be made in F, but I want to see it close above 103 again before jumping in.

Consumer confidence was horrible. Market continues to be valued on forward earning estimates that are likely much too high, thus the P/E of the market is not as low as people think. Still think there is a stimulus money effect that will take place, but maybe another test of 1300 at least before summer.

75G 25C

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 3/25/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.94 %
Current Allocation: 75G 25C
Tracker Rank: 12
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[Corepuncher]

Inventory of new homes stands at a 9.8 month supply...same as last month. This while prices continue to drop. That is a strong sign we are nowhere NEAR a bottom and I can't believe people on TV say we might be. Others say it will be 2010 before a bottom is reached.

A failure to break 1380 S&P will yet be another lower high. Combine our consumer confidence number with durable goods and a fast run-up (and the whole financial system for that matter) and it's a good reason for a selloff. Nice to be mostly in G. Wish I kept some of my F...might go heavy into F soon.

1320 may act as a support level for the S&P. If we break that next stop 1300. Will begin buying more C fund low 1320's. This might be on Thur or Fri...I think today is the beginning of the selloff and am not going to buy yet (plus there could be one last "denial" at the close...which has screwed me in the past!)

Look at an S&P candlestick chart last few months. Every time we get a rally going, it sells off like in 2 DAYS! I think today is the first day.

Feb 4 and 5...Feb 28 and 29...March 26-28

 

[Asylum]

Inventory of new homes stands at a 9.8 month supply...same as last month. This while prices continue to drop. That is a strong sign we are nowhere NEAR a bottom and I can't believe people on TV say we might be. Others say it will be 2010 before a bottom is reached.

Interesting..

Sales were also down in the Midwest, dropping by 6.4 percent, but posted gains in the South of 5.7 percent and 0.7 percent in the West.

Our market here in La has picked up nicely with the onset of spring.

 

[Corepuncher]

HEY NSURF9...LETS GO TO VEGAS AND I"LL LET YOU SPEND ALL MY MONEY! Your return is ridiculous! Good job!



Updated Tracker COB 3/26/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.73 %
Current Allocation: 75G 25C
Tracker Rank: 11
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[Corepuncher]

If we are headed for another down leg, then F might be the place to be. Another spooking and we could get AGG to breakout above that 103.5 level. May move some from G to F.

Financials are getting crushed today and not much in the headlines...

 

[Asylum]

If we are headed for another down leg, then F might be the place to be. Another spooking and we could get AGG to breakout above that 103.5 level. May move some from G to F.

Financials are getting crushed today and not much in the headlines...

that's what I'm thinking as well...

 

[Steadygain]

Updated Tracker COB 3/26/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.73 %
Current Allocation: 75G 25C
Tracker Rank: 11
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Yours is excellent too - and this is very stylish. Everyone in the top 25 with POSITIVE GAINS should include something similar.

Unfortunately #1 - is so caught up in the ITF - BS stuff he doesn't seem to acknowledge that he's light years ahead of everyone else. But then I probably deal with it with an "Uptrend mentality".

 

[Steadygain]

Financials are getting crushed today and not much in the headlines...

Financials should be getting crushed - it's amazing we had the rally we did - as though no one believed or realized the worst is yet to come. BRING IT ON - GET OUT OF THE WAY - AND LET THEM DIVE TO THE BOTTOM.

 

[Corepuncher]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/27/new...dith.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008032713

 

[Tomncath]

Core,

Good post. Thanks!

Her last prediction was correct, no reason to think she's wrong this time...I can see myself sitting in F/G for quite a bit of the year.

 

[Steadygain]

Man, that was a great article.

THANK YOU!!

Definately restores my sanity. I'm wanting to find a much lower bottom for 2 reasons. 1) To buy at the cheapest price and 2) is equal to 1) - in that I want the BULL to finally take over for months on end.

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 3/27/08
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2008 YTD Return: 2.45 %
Current Allocation: 50F 25G 25C
Tracker Rank: 11
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[Asylum]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=as2mfA3LJMGc&refer=home

Consumer Spending in U.S. Increased at Slower Pace

``With flat real consumer spending, we're going to be in a recession,'' said Brian Bethune, director of financial economics at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts, who correctly forecast the rise in spending. The inflation number suggests that ``even though there are pressures on import costs, there is very little capability to pass those on to consumers.''

 

[Corepuncher]

Selling my remaining 25% C and going 50G/50F. G fund should pay a penny soon. F/AGG may be on the way up, especially if Chicago PMI and ISM index are low next week. If we break 1320 on S&P it's waterfall back down IMO. Our 1360 of late was yet another lower high. May not fall right away but if we go sideways for 2 or 3 days feel we'll go back down. Financials are in disarray right now and extreme volatility. Good luck.