Corepuncher's Account Talk

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Give me a break how many times can we test 1320 and not close below?

If we can break into the 1310's before deadline I might throw a little more in today in C. C fund has remained relatively buoyant compared to the other funds recently.
 
As we saw with the ISM yesterday, even though it was bad it wasn't Armageddon, so the market didn't tank.

That being said, I believe expectations for the rest of the week are way low. I would play the ADP employment report as a contrarian play for tomorrow...that report is sometimes very different than the FED employment report. If it's high and we get a bounce, I'd sell....and if it's really low and we tank, I'l buy.
 
Well I bought in 50% at 1330 so it makes sense I should buy some more while we are down today. Question is how much. A part of me wants to gamble, go all in and hope for a bounce to sell. What I may do is hold out a token 10% in G just in case we go down again this week.

If Europe cuts rates it will be bad for the I fund, so sticking with C for now.
 
Dammit I missed that stupid Tracker deadline by 1 minute.
mean.jpg

Unless the Tracker is actually tied in with the TSP system, there is NO REASON to arbitrarily make it difficult to get your data in on time. Why not give it several hours of grace period time? Is someone MANUALLY entering our info and needs lots of time? If we are trying to mimic the TSP exactly, might as well send out stupid letters to everyone too!:laugh:

I know the tracker is a free service and I thank the makers for keeping it up and running. But illogical things make me mad!
 
DennisFAA said:
Hey CP..are you a beekeeper too...I noticed your AVATAR..looks like the brand I buy now..I use to get my honey from Jim (Tuttle OK) but he recently moved to San Diego...You'll know who I'm talking about if you are in the Bee business here;)
Click to expand...

No, not a bee keeper, but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

You work for the FAA? Work with AWC any?
 
Today was a big volume day folks. It could mean a rally is in the offing for a few days.

These stupid TSP rules...if I could buy and sell at any time, I would have bought at 1308 instead of settling for 1327! Same with my last sell. I hate TSP.
 
I think there is a chance for a 2-3 day rally here. I'm gonna add another 5% to I fund. I agree with oscar!

The ADP employment came in negative and the market is rallying. Thursday we just have the initial claims. Last week was like 370K so if it's lower it will seem positive. If we close strong today I think we rally tomorrow as well, at which time I'll think about taking some off. Looking to break 1345ish and then sell below 1360.

90C 5I 5G
 
Updated Tracker

Updated Tracker 3/5/08 (autotracker is incorrect)
---------------
Year: -0.10%
90C 5I 5G
Rank: T28

Woohoo! Almost to zero!:laugh:
 
Well, I've been buying stocks last few days so I might as well throw the rest in today since a lower price is likely.

I know a capitulation day sounds enticing, but the chances of us actually A) knowing which day it will be and B) having it happen at the close are pretty slim.

The lower 1300s sure is a strong support level. I will rely on that for the short term. Jobs number Friday has me freaked a little. I'd like to get another mini rally to the 1350s or 1360s for another lower high in order to get out again.

100C
 
I believe the market has not fully "tanked" yet mainly because of valuations relative to history. Everyone seems to be in a holding pattern, and nobody knows exactly how deep this housing bubble and credit crunch runs. Stocks seem cheap relative to their forward looking earnings, thus reluctance to sell.

I personally think that everyone is holding on for dear life, hoping that there is not a much bigger deeper problem. But with soaring commodities, falling dollar with more rate cuts, and possibly the start of a major recession, things just don't look good.

Once the market realizes how big of a problem we are facing, I believe that is when the crash will happen. To heck with valuations, they go out the window when the whole system breaks, and, we will not know what hit us because there is no historical precidence.

I will still hold with my thesis of a bottom between now and May or June before the crack hits the streets, causing a euphoric and short term consumer discretionary bubble.
 
Updated Tracker

Updated Tracker 3/6/08 (autotracker is incorrect)
-------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: -2.13 %
% Increase Shares from shorting: 5.7 %
Current Allocation: 100C
-------------------------------
 
Corepuncher said:
I believe the market has not fully "tanked" yet mainly because of valuations relative to history. Everyone seems to be in a holding pattern, and nobody knows exactly how deep this housing bubble and credit crunch runs. Stocks seem cheap relative to their forward looking earnings, thus reluctance to sell.

I personally think that everyone is holding on for dear life, hoping that there is not a much bigger deeper problem. But with soaring commodities, falling dollar with more rate cuts, and possibly the start of a major recession, things just don't look good.

Once the market realizes how big of a problem we are facing, I believe that is when the crash will happen. To heck with valuations, they go out the window when the whole system breaks, and, we will not know what hit us because there is no historical precidence.

I will still hold with my thesis of a bottom between now and May or June before the crack hits the streets, causing a euphoric and short term consumer discretionary bubble.
Click to expand...

I am kind of lurking here; listening and learning. Can I ask you why you are fully invested in C now, given your thoughts above? I don't get it.
 
Frozen said:
I am kind of lurking here; listening and learning. Can I ask you why you are fully invested in C now, given your thoughts above? I don't get it.
Click to expand...

My bearish stance just means I'd like to err on the side of being out. Right now I've been trading a range and this is the bottom of the recent range, so I am in. I know there is a downside danger, but this is my retirement and I have a long time until I retire.

In a bear market, you will always beat the market by moving in and out, because since it goes down on average, you win if your out. The opposite is true in a bull, it's harder to beat. So, I happen to be "stuck" all in at this point. It's ok, just means I have to wait until upper 1320s in this case, for me to sell again and make a profit. If it goes down in the meantime, well, so be it, I won't sell.

I think there is an excellent chance at another "denial" rally at some point, back to test the upper 1300s at least. The stimulus money is going to be a good thing.
 
"In a bear market, you will always beat the market by moving in and out"

Now you're digging yourself in deeper. I wish it was that simple.
 
Frozen said:
"In a bear market, you will always beat the market by moving in and out"

Now you're digging yourself in deeper. I wish it was that simple.
Click to expand...

I would agree with you about digging myself in deeper if I was 100C at 1550 but I've been selling high and buying low all the way down to 1300. As long as I do not sell my stocks at a lower price than when I bought them, I am not losing anything. This of course is based on the premise that the stock market, over the long run, goes UP!

If this was a bull market and I got out, there is a chance the market could keep going up and never reach the point at which I got out. There is no such danger in a bear market. If you are out, chances are the market goes down and you can buy in cheaper. So as long as you play it smart in a bear market, you can always win.
 
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