Corepuncher's Account Talk

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I'm gonna make a guess that we bounce hard around 1380...and/or we do not make it to our recent highs around 1395. If this occurs, it will be a similar "M" pattern as we had back in December, before we started the next leg down. If we fail to break 1380, I'll be watching 1360 ish closely to see if it holds. Currently 50C/50G.

1380.gif
 
Going 100C. Market internals are decidedly down...should be a fairly good down close. Since I sold 50% C yesterday at 1367, I will increase my shares by buying the down day today. If it ends up being an up day by COB, then the rally may continue Friday.

Regardless, I am looking to sell any strength on Friday ahead of next weeks housing data. FYI I received no TSP letter lol :toung:
 
Up up and away! At least for a day....

100% C right now but I am SO SELLING Tuesday. We have the luxury of having no economic data on Tuesday...i'm not sure what the statistical trend is on days with no ED, but since 1350 held last Friday....our +16 S&P futures could hold.

There is NO WAY I"m gonna be 100% in ahead of both inflation AND housing numbers on Wed!!! Lets look at it this way...what is our upside? retesting the recent highs in the upper 1300's? Big whoop...if futures hold on Tue, we'll already be at 1370. That is close enough for me to get the heck out!

What are the chances that BOTH inflation and housing numbers surprise in a good way? I'd say < 50%. Now, what if inflation is up AND housing is down?? 10yr yields are already going up, which will just be a negative feedback for new housing. Oh yeah, not to mention this monoline mess and the possibility of higher taxes and 100 dollar oil.

So if we are up Tue, my inclination is to at least sell 50% of my holdings, maybe more. If I'm feeling lucky I guess I'll go 100% into G. Again, IMO Tue is your chance for a graceful exit.
 
Lastly, Justin Mamis of The Mamis Letter recently noted that bear markets typically involve three legs: denial, realization and give-up. It's his view that we may have experienced the first leg but that the second one is yet to come. This realization leg occurs when people comprehend why the market is going down and sell stocks in response. As he points out: "A bear market can't end -- never has -- until denial turns into realization. . . . This is a long process, because the light bulb doesn't come on collectively but gradually. Some are quicker to catch on, or less dumb, than others."
 
Any gain in this market is a good gain. So far my theory is playing out with today being the "graceful exit" day in front of new housing starts.

A < 1000K start number could be psychologically significant! Remember the macro...bearish. Be quick or be dead!

100G

Wake me up at 1396
 
Volume is pitiful today, lowest since Christmas time!

As 12% would say, I bet the "big boys" are lying in wait, and are waiting for the opportune time to take this market down. They know that people are expecting a retest.

IMO, the market has just not come to terms with the situation. It seems dazed, sitting in the 1300's. People think there is "value" because they are comparing prices to where they were. Look at a 10 year chart and you'll see where we are relative to the absolute ranges.

I played the 1320-1380 range game and made out quite well...but given the pennant I think this trade has come to a close. Best chance is for downward break, and I'll wait for a new range to become established. (BTW...I'm glad I received no TSP letter, it's strange, because in 2007 I had about 30 transfers...but more than half were G to F and back to G). Wonder if they took that into account?

IMO...we have no chance of a meaningful rally until we make a higher high, meaning we close above 1396. Lowers highs all the way. I'll be shocked if we are able to CLOSE above 1396 for months at least.
 
Corepuncher said:
Any gain in this market is a good gain. So far my theory is playing out with today being the "graceful exit" day in front of new housing starts. A < 1000K start number could be psychologically significant! Remember the macro...bearish. Be quick or be dead!
100G

Wake me up at 1396
Click to expand...

Darnit... on 2/14 I bought 50% C @ 1348.86 and sold today at 1348.78. That solidifies a .003% loss in shares for me :toung:

Oh well, I tried to play it some more, no harm no foul. Would have liked a small gain but now I"m glad I'm out because I am betting that early rally was simply padding for anyone to get out today.
 
Corepuncher said:
Any gain in this market is a good gain. So far my theory is playing out with today being the "graceful exit" day in front of new housing starts.

A < 1000K start number could be psychologically significant! Remember the macro...bearish. Be quick or be dead!

100G

Wake me up at 1396
Click to expand...

It's looking like you made a good move.:)
 
Hey Core, from my perspective, you're doing better than the rest of us. I wish I would have been quick last week...cause I was slow and dead. I think G fund is a good move for what is coming up the remainer of this week. Take care.
 
crhuss said:
Hey Core, from my perspective, you're doing better than the rest of us. I wish I would have been quick last week...cause I was slow and dead. I think G fund is a good move for what is coming up the remainer of this week. Take care.
Click to expand...

Thanks. Luckily, I received no letter from TSP, so I'm fancy free for now! I will likely fall back to simply using the moving average systems to miss the longer term bears and be in most of the bulls. If you do that, you will clean up compared to the S&P....that is, assuming there is no apocolypse!

This guy gives a daily technical and warned days ago about the impending bond action (F fund dropping, rates rising)

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

He's crass and may be a perma-bear, but he's smarter than I am.
 
:toung: CPI just came in a bit hotter than expected

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: JANUARY 2008

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased
0.5 percent in January before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The January
level of 211.080 (1982-84=100) was 4.3 percent higher than in January
2007. (note this is 0.8% higher than G FUND RETURN!)

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W) increased 0.5 percent in January prior to seasonal adjustment.
The January level of 206.744 (1982-84=100) was 4.6 percent higher than in
January 2007.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
increased 0.5 percent in January on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The
January level of 121.895 (December 1999=100) was 3.9 percent higher than
in January 2007. Please note that the indexes for the post-2006 period
are subject to revision. Previously published and revised data for 2006
and 2007 are shown on page 5.
 
Other options

I'm thinking of limiting my TSP contributions to 5%, then putting my other 5% elsewhere. I have no idea what to do though. Can someone explain?

Who do I make an account with, someone like scottrade? Should I put the other 5% in a ROTH IRA? Some other account? How easy is it to trade a ROTH? Can I buy and sell intraday based on the S&P or some other index fund? When I am in "cash", where is my money? How much does each transaction cost? When I sell, do I have to pay capital gains?

For now, I'd just like to be able to trade like I do with the TSP...but at ANY point in the day...I"m sick of trying to guess the close.

Any help would really be appreciated, thanks. I'd like to get this set up sooner than later.
 
Re: Other options

Corepuncher said:
I'm thinking of limiting my TSP contributions to 5%, then putting my other 5% elsewhere. I have no idea what to do though. Can someone explain?

Who do I make an account with, someone like scottrade? Should I put the other 5% in a ROTH IRA? Some other account? How easy is it to trade a ROTH? Can I buy and sell intraday based on the S&P or some other index fund? When I am in "cash", where is my money? How much does each transaction cost? When I sell, do I have to pay capital gains?

For now, I'd just like to be able to trade like I do with the TSP...but at ANY point in the day...I"m sick of trying to guess the close.

Any help would really be appreciated, thanks. I'd like to get this set up sooner than later.
Click to expand...

NOW YOU'RE TALK'N BABY!!!! :D Any broker will do, I use Scottrade. No fees and $7 trades in and out. Great trading platform and gains tracking. I stick to the basic funds that track TSP but am only using SPY, SSO, and SDS as of right now. Both SSO and SDS are 2X leveraged so they gain or lose 2 times the S&P index. If you're going to play, get the 2X leveraged gains. I'm holding SDS now. Check my signature to see my allocation.

When you are "cash" you really are cash and get interest from Scottrade.

If you can trade TSP trading a brokerage account is much easier and more fun because you can pick your buy and sell price and set stops so that you don't get killed on a sell off. Getting familiar with all of the features will take time but once you get the hang of it, piece of cake.

You can not technically "day trade" a Roth, meaning buy in and out several times a day. They do not allow margin account in IRA's.

You can buy and sell in the same day or sell and buy in the same day. There is a 3 day settlement of funds rule that you MUST understand well to sell and buy in the same day.

I am in the process of setting up electronic transfers from my checking to my Scottrade accounts, take 2-3 days.

You will luv it.
 
What the hell. I'll go out on a limb tonight and "guess" that Monday we see a rally which is sold into by the close. I don't think anyone want's to be all in yet ahead of all the data coming out this week.

MONDAY: We pin 1370 only to close back in the 1350's.
 
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