Corepuncher's Account Talk

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Corepuncher said:
Ah, G fund!

I fail to see a catalyst for a major trend reversal to upward. Will remain G for now. Latest plan is to begin buying back in below 1300, only to sell once again, that is!
Click to expand...
Agree with you, puncher. I'm looking at maybe buying back in 50% if we hit 1300 on the S&P and buying more if we have a further 50 point drop. I'm not looking for home runs these days, just a percentage point or so every so often and then a quick exit to the lilly pad.
 
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As far as I can tell,RALLYS ARE TO BE SOLD UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE

We had a huge down day and our "dead cat bounce" is actually sinking further into the pavement! The MACD is well below zero, and, is now turning to go below the signal line. Paulson just stated he does not believe we are going into a recession. Not what you want to hear if you want lower rates. 10 yr yield is up again today...rising mortgage rates are not what we want to mitigate the housing death spiral. Tempting to get back in since I would be securing a 2.5% increase in shares since my last sell price, but I"m gonna wait. If we happen to close up today, I bet Friday is down.

100G
 
EMA Crossover system

Disclaimer: Historical performance does not necessarily predict future performance.

That said, over the last 10 years, if you just sold when the 100 day EMA crossed below the 200 day EMA, and bought when it crossed back over, it would look like this (using S&P 500)

ema1.gif


You have to go back to 1990 for this system to have failed. It also would have failed in the '87 crash, so obviously it is not perfect and you have to take into account the differences in order to use this method as a tool.

I do, however, put more weight in the past few years as opposed to 20 years ago...things change.
 
Birchtree said:
You left out the positive cross over in 1995 - look what happened after that.
Click to expand...

You would have bought back in January 1995 and enjoyed the rally all the way up until Nov 2000.

Yeah, not sure why I arbitrarily started in early 1998...guess that is the 10 year limit of the java chart on bigcharts :cheesy:
 
Corepuncher said:
You would have bought back in January 1995 and enjoyed the rally all the way up until Nov 2000.

Yeah, not sure why I arbitrarily started in early 1998...guess that is the 10 year limit of the java chart on bigcharts :cheesy:
Click to expand...

Actually, the traditional long-term signal is the 50 day EMA crossing the 200 day EMA (and both either on a down or up trend), but it looks very similar to the one using the 100 day EMA. I guess I'm starting to use this signal as an overall guide for my default investment strategy of being either in or out of the markets. Since we are in a downward trend, my default strategy is now in the G fund, while waiting for seemingly grossly oversold opportunities to make a quick entry/exit and, hopefully, a small profit. In an upward trending market, my default position will be in the market, only exiting when I judge the market to be very overextended.

Anyway, this is my current trading strategy - making it work profitably is another thing!:worried:
 
presskh said:
Actually, the traditional long-term signal is the 50 day EMA crossing the 200 day EMA (and both either on a down or up trend), but it looks very similar to the one using the 100 day EMA. I guess I'm starting to use this signal as an overall guide for my default investment strategy of being either in or out of the markets. Since we are in a downward trend, my default strategy is now in the G fund, while waiting for seemingly grossly oversold opportunities to make a quick entry/exit and, hopefully, a small profit. In an upward trending market, my default position will be in the market, only exiting when I judge the market to be very overextended.
Click to expand...

I chose the 100 day crossing the 200 day because it does not give a false sell signal in late 1998.

Sounds like we are on the same page as far as using the "background" pattern to define your default or "home" position.
 
50C 50G COB today. Hoping for a little selling action and I think the 1300 level may hold for the near term. These longer term disasters always seem to have a lag!
 
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Corepuncher said:
I chose the 100 day crossing the 200 day because it does not give a false sell signal in late 1998.

Sounds like we are on the same page as far as using the "background" pattern to define your default or "home" position.
Click to expand...

Hey Puncher, looking at both the 50 and 100 day EMA's compared with the 200 EMA, I'm slightly modifying my strategy. My new strategy will be: if the 50 day EMA crosses the 200 day EMA, I will use this to change 50% of my funds in the new applicable "default" position. If the 100 day EMA the also crosses the 200 day EMA and both are in the same direction, I will then commit the other 50% to the new position. The 50 day EMA gives a "quicker" read on the general market trend and using it historically seems to either get you "in" or "out" quicker, thus collecting gains or avoiding losses earlier. However, since the 50 Day/200 day EMA comparison seems to sometimes give a "false" reading on the overall market direction, I agree with you that the 100 day/200 day EMA comparison is a better confirmation tool for overall market direction.
 
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This appears to be a bad sign for commecial real estate. Below is a graph of the spreads for not high risk borrowers, but the highest rated borrowers AAA. Something big has happened during the past week...

9ae10620230f01594121543145a.png
 
Is this the spread (in basis points) between prime commercial loan rates and the 10 year treasury or something else? Thanks.
 
Strong up day today. I don't think mediocre retail sales will add any to pessimism. What the hell, all in 100C. Could be a slight down day tomorrow before starting another small leg up...I don't expect to exceed our 1495 we hit a while back. Will go back to G at first signs of stall (probably 1470-1490). It is a very good sign we broke out of this sideways range. If we are actually up again fairly strongly tomorrow (for second day in row), I might take some back off the table. In this market, be quick or be dead!

Lets make some money!
 
Looks like our 1350 Resistance has now turned into support.

Looking at the charts, I would almost "gloss" over the 1270 low days on 1/22-23rd and look at the chart as having support right around 1320. Lots of noise in there with the French trader and the FED surprise(ingly dumb?) rate cuts. IMO, it will take some pretty bad news to make us close below 1320. It seems to me that the market "thinks" it is fairly priced here in the 1300's.

I'm gonna play around here for a while.

> 1370-1380, i begin to take some off the table.
< 1350's, I buy.
A break and close below 1320 and I'm OUT!
A breakout above 1400 and I'll ride the euphoria for a couple days before selling.
 
I'm taking some profits today.

If we cannot close above 1360 it's bearish and it will probably go down Thu and Fri. Last Options expiration sucked! Also the last long holiday weekend...sucked!

If we do rally at close today, we could easily hit 1370 in which case I believe we would be within 10-15 pts of the next lower high, in which case I would want to be out!

50G 50C COB TODAY
 
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