Corepuncher's Account Talk

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Well, I shifted from 100C to 50C / 50I today. Feel like I made out since I sold C shares (down 0.56%) for I shares which were down 1.80%. I'm in this for the long term, thus I don't mind getting in a little to early, but, still I'd like to avoid lengthy bears if possible.

We had a nice inverse head n' shoulders early in the day...and I really thought we were gonna close in the green. Oh well.

My question is....1) How high can any intermediate term rally go, and 2) what is the next support level, if any, that will be taken out?

Next support level appears to be...1325 from May 2006! IMO...we will get a rally before we even think about testing that one. I'll be happy just to break 1420 soon...with hopes of 1440.
 
fwiw - The Nikkei's price-earnings ratio, which compares the price of a stock to its earnings, is now just below that of the S&P 500. Value investors will eventually be on the prowl for bargains because these stocks are so inexpensive. Japanese stocks trade at a price/book value ratio, which compares a company's stock to the value of its assets, of a little above 1.5 times. U.S. stocks trade at about 2.5 times. Japan represents considerable value relative to other markets. An I fund price of $22.73 is golden.
 
Well, obviously my jump back in was premature, but hey, I was out for 10% of the loss and I have 30 years til retirement :toung:

Increasing contribution % for the short term.

Employment report will be KEY!!!!!!!
 
Anyone know if today would be a good day to trade some C shares for I shares? The FV got hammered yesterday, it was a HUGE downward adjustment.
 
I went from 50/50 C/I to 25/75 C/I...looks like a good move on the surface...we'll see if I can respond at or above C rate.
 
I had 50/50 in the C & S...moved mine to 20% C, 30% S and 50% I...took advantage of the overseas selling and rebounding...hopefully I made the most of it.
 
Initial jobless claims fell to 301K this week. Aside from the last employment report...there have been no signs of a recession showing up in the jobs data!

I think the fact we've had 2 huge reversals as of late is a sign of a bottom (short term).

Keys coming up:

1) Jan 30 Fed action (.50 cut?)
2) Jan 30 GDP Report
3) Feb 1 Employment report

Even with good data though, I might have to get back out between 1370-1400.
 
Corepuncher correction factor: + 0.71%

Nice gain for the I fund.

Since I missed my last deadline for the tracker, I guess I'll keep the correction facter up. I'm actually 75I 25C.

The correction is +.71%, so I'm -3.47 for the year.
 
Glad to see the I fund had a good adjustment today. Go I !

--------------------
Currently 75 I, 25 C
Rank: #55
Year: -4.06
--------------------
 
Housing numbers just came in and they were horrid. Nice thing is that the market appears to have shaken it off.

Are we getting to the point where we are sorta "numb" to bad news? That could be good. Maybe it's just betting on the FED? That is a scary proposition my friends!!!!

I fund is down about 1% today compared to C. I've been transferring from C to I each time the I has been down compared to the C, and so far it has paid off. Right now 75I 25C...thinking about going all in I today.

I wonder if the EFA will benefit at all from the deep red in Asia and Europe, or, does it work the other way?
 
I think the I fund is owed a +0.27 FV from last week and if you add another FV from today there may be a break even point. The Euro markets haven't closed yet so there may be some possible turn around in that pit.
 
Anyone else think this video is bearish?

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=NGD0GemEiqw

Ben is going to disappoint. I believe a 50 cut will be sell the news, or, at the very least, a Wed/Thur rally before selling off again. I really think a 25 cut is a very real possibility, in which case we'll just sell off that much harder.

The market will only rally on a >=50 cut WITH language of further cuts becoming necessary. That is my opinion anyway.

If we are up Tue morning, I will sell 50% of my holdings and buy 25G/25F.

Updated tracker
---------------
75% I 25% C
Year: -3.23%
Rank: #50
 
Hmmm...what to do.

I'm thinking that perhaps TODAY is when we rally, in anticipation of FED move. Then, FED moves 0.25 or 0.50. We sell off Thur and Fri after it wears off, we start wondering what he'll do next time, and we realize the stimulus money is like 5 months away!!!

Approx. near term key levels:

1405
1370
1320

So maybe we rally to 1370 by end of today...if that doesn't send us back down surely 1405 will??

I'm gonna lighten up by COB today...just not sure how much yet.
 
OK...we've gone up 90+pts in 4days on the S&P...and this is in a possible bear market. Reality check!

What is our upside? maybe 1400? We could be at 1370-1380 by the end of the day if we rally. I'm taking 50% off the table.

Let me ask you all this...when the word "hope" comes to mind, do you see images of Ben Bernanke? Didn't think so :toung:
 
At the moment I have this feeling I should have went 100 G...

Just think about it, if the FED rally fizzles or is non-existent, then what do we have to spark the market back up? 100 dollar oil? Slowing consumer spending? Increasing credit card defaults? American Express came in with bad numbers, and they are not subprime.

Housing is absolutely tanking. Mortgage rates have gone down, median home prices have gone down, yet the new home sales are TANKING. NOT GOOD AT ALL. Bring on the A-BOMB with Bernankes face on it!

A month in between fed meetings is a lifetime in this type of environment. Just think of the possibilities over the next month!
 
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