Corepuncher's Account Talk

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I'm surprised it didn't hit the 1390s everyone has been looking for since S&P stated they can keep their AAA ratings for now...still has Ambac on CreditWatch tho.
 
Corepuncher said:
What the hell. I'll go out on a limb tonight and "guess" that Monday we see a rally which is sold into by the close. I don't think anyone want's to be all in yet ahead of all the data coming out this week.

MONDAY: We pin 1370 only to close back in the 1350's.
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Well I got half the prediction right. Maybe the other half will come today.
 
Seems strange that even in the face of inflation, people are BUYING bonds today. What is the real balance of risk here? Is this rally simply a mirage?

In a relative bear market sort of sense, we have euphoria. Sell it!

I'll still wait for 1396.

Don't listen to Birchtree...look what I found out about him:
In northern latitudes birch is however considered to be the most important allergenic tree pollen, with an estimated 15-20% of hay fever sufferers sensitive to birch pollen grains.:toung:
 
I don't post much but need to vent some frustration. I don't understand how all this bad news about inflation, the economy, housing, corporate profits, etc, ect........ can come out day after day and the market continues to climb slowly up! Look at today with the inflation report and consumer confidence numbers. I would have bet everything that the market would tank today and now it continues to climb. How do you pick entry and exit points with this atmosphere? I have been on the sidelines for awhile but get frustrated when the news is virtually all bad and I miss out on nice little rallys like these that make no sense. Is this a new market were now looking at? Sorry for the questions. Just confused.
 
You must recognize that the market is always omnipotent and operates as a discount mechanism toward the future. The market is seeing something 9 months down the road that an ordinary investor is blind to recognize. You simply have to hold your nose and go with the flow and build up of superlative bull manure. The bull is happy you are on the sidelines, the bull is even happier that the recent homeowners are stuck in their ever decreasing home values - keep these speculators away from the stock market.
 
I think Birch is right, the market is now looking at the future effect of super high doses of liquidity that will have their day 7-9 months from now. The massive infusion of 1.25 in prime rate cuts (within a week) plus the other cuts plus the stimulus package, which as I've read about a little more lately is actually very significant, SHOULD drag us out of the stagnant economy at some point relatively soon. But the market the moves on a bigger picture than just the daily financial news.



akpackfan said:
I don't post much but need to vent some frustration. I don't understand how all this bad news about inflation, the economy, housing, corporate profits, etc, ect........ can come out day after day and the market continues to climb slowly up! Look at today with the inflation report and consumer confidence numbers. I would have bet everything that the market would tank today and now it continues to climb. How do you pick entry and exit points with this atmosphere? I have been on the sidelines for awhile but get frustrated when the news is virtually all bad and I miss out on nice little rallys like these that make no sense. Is this a new market were now looking at? Sorry for the questions. Just confused.
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Reactive1 said:
I think Birch is right, the market is now looking at the future effect of super high doses of liquidity that will have their day 7-9 months from now. The massive infusion of 1.25 in prime rate cuts (within a week) plus the other cuts plus the stimulus package, which as I've read about a little more lately is actually very significant, SHOULD drag us out of the stagnant economy at some point relatively soon. But the market the moves on a bigger picture than just the daily financial news.
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And what will oil cost 7-9 months down the road? $140, $155?
 
Corepuncher said:
The little guys money will be taken.
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I have an friend who works at one of the big firms and they are targeting 115.00 for crude during this bull run.

New home sales, ta-da, lower than expected. Median prices fell about 1.4% and inventory, at current sales rate, ROSE to 9.9 months. Sounds like rally material to me.
 
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If the bond market action over the past 2 days is any indication, this rally has topped out.

Also, when nuclear Ben speaks, people stick a fork in it.
 
Well, it is tempting to buy some stock since today is down so much, especially in light of the recent mini-rally. However, I am going to bite down and wait for a better buying opportunity. I think today could reverse in part, but it has done some damage IMO and next week has some good downside potential.

I last sold at 1348, and to tell you the truth I hate being 100 out of stocks. I've gambled this long through the "rally" I guess I'll wait a bit more. A close near or below 1340, and we break a support level and retest 1320....at which time the bunker buster ass metaphor comes into effect. Carter Worth seems to be a pretty good tech guy and he is "quite confident" the next directional move is down.
 
What the hell, I'm going 50% into C fund today. Time to play.

I last sold at 1348 so I have a good chance of picking up some shares for free. I'm gonna hope that we close down today for a decent gain. Tuesday has no economic data and I feel that the market could have a small rally. Todays market internals are fairly down, although the market is currently flat. Any rally too early will be sold, and perhaps oversold into the close.


Showme...lol no I'm not a beekeeper, just a bear right now!
 
Punching through the veil of negativity are we - ignore the fear and go for the C fund. It was mentioned in today's ISM report that exports are still golden.
 
Birchtree said:
Punching through the veil of negativity are we - ignore the fear and go for the C fund. It was mentioned in today's ISM report that exports are still golden.
Click to expand...

I'm still bearish, and it's a lot easier to beat the market in a bear market than beat a bull in a bull market. I'll keep buying in lower, and sell when we rally until we breakout and the moving averages confirm a reversal.

If I use up all my powder and get the point where I'm 100 in, well, I guess I'll just have to wait for it to go back up :-)

Thank goodness for no tsp warning letter! I'm just starting to get good at this I don't wanna stop! Roth here I come.
 
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