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Corepuncher's Account Talk
- Thread starter Corepuncher
- Start date
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Corepuncher,
You are doing GREAT!!
At 10% you get to kick the BEAR in the teeth and stomp on his head.
What's all the more amazing is: 1st Quarter is not even over and you'll have >10% - in one of the worst years ever.
You are doing GREAT!!
At 10% you get to kick the BEAR in the teeth and stomp on his head.
What's all the more amazing is: 1st Quarter is not even over and you'll have >10% - in one of the worst years ever.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
I personally would not get in now...although we could go up to lower 800s.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
CP,
I know it's a SHOCK that the Markets are still gaining with considerable strength.
I would probably be the FIRST to say - there is no way this can last.
BUT - what if Birch is right - what if we really did hit the bottom and months from now ALL OF US ARE IN AGREEMENT as it becomes way more obvious over time.
Now I personally believe this is a RALLY - and from my previous posts that is sustained growth over 3 to 5 weeks.
This may be one of those rare times where staying IN pays off.
I know it's a SHOCK that the Markets are still gaining with considerable strength.
I would probably be the FIRST to say - there is no way this can last.
BUT - what if Birch is right - what if we really did hit the bottom and months from now ALL OF US ARE IN AGREEMENT as it becomes way more obvious over time.
Now I personally believe this is a RALLY - and from my previous posts that is sustained growth over 3 to 5 weeks.
This may be one of those rare times where staying IN pays off.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Well, I tried some side account trading today, and sucked horribly....lost 9% of my account value. However, my TSP made 4X what I lost....so, I guess I should be happy 
If we can approach 800 I"ll sell my remaining 25% C. Remember, we have GM to deal with , Eastern Europe, credit card/car loan delinquencies, job losses. Also we re trying to force lending, but there is no way to get the pipes unclogged.
Do not trust 666 as the bottom...it is obvious it is a "lie" !
Remember...if S&P earnings are 40-60 dollars and we bottom with a 10-12 multiple, the HIGH END is 60*12 = 720....we are way above that. Q1 earnings are going to come in soon.
In my side account...I...
Bought FAZ at 41.30
Bought SDS at 84.63
Bought DUG at 28.60
As you can see, FAZ and DUG crushed me today! Going to hold on...FAZ can triple or quadruple in a hurrry! Merideth Whitney was on today and she was basically saying 2009 will be as bad or worse than 2008 for banks. Let 'er rip!
If we can approach 800 I"ll sell my remaining 25% C. Remember, we have GM to deal with , Eastern Europe, credit card/car loan delinquencies, job losses. Also we re trying to force lending, but there is no way to get the pipes unclogged.
Do not trust 666 as the bottom...it is obvious it is a "lie" !
Remember...if S&P earnings are 40-60 dollars and we bottom with a 10-12 multiple, the HIGH END is 60*12 = 720....we are way above that. Q1 earnings are going to come in soon.
In my side account...I...
Bought FAZ at 41.30
Bought SDS at 84.63
Bought DUG at 28.60
As you can see, FAZ and DUG crushed me today! Going to hold on...FAZ can triple or quadruple in a hurrry! Merideth Whitney was on today and she was basically saying 2009 will be as bad or worse than 2008 for banks. Let 'er rip!
Steadygain
TSP Elite
MOTHER F$*)(u)#
It's a Junior HS Term - denoting:
Great Dismay
Surprize
Anyway -- it seemed appropriate for the occasion
You're in the TOP SPOT !!
It's a Junior HS Term - denoting:
Great Dismay
Surprize
Anyway -- it seemed appropriate for the occasion
You're in the TOP SPOT !!
Corepuncher
Well-known member
justbizness45
Member
Congrats CP, would love to see you stay there for awhile. Keep up the great posts!!
Corepuncher
Well-known member
I've got some dudes right behind me though...I may not be here for long.
Lower 800s will be one tough nut to crack, IMO. I think we see 740's before lower 800s. 50 MA, upper Bollinger Band, and a support line near key psych level. yeah...I'm long SDS, FAZ, and DUG. Also, note the downtrend in volume as we rally. ta ta!
Lower 800s will be one tough nut to crack, IMO. I think we see 740's before lower 800s. 50 MA, upper Bollinger Band, and a support line near key psych level. yeah...I'm long SDS, FAZ, and DUG. Also, note the downtrend in volume as we rally. ta ta!
WIND_HUNTER
Member
Great Job CP! Look forward to your post. Just hope I can get out and keep most of the gains I've made so far. Thank You for your contributions.
steveg
Member
CP --
I also think low 800s may be tough to crack. I am ready to sell and lock in some gains -- need to get to at least 790 to have gains on ALL my money (some purchased at 682, but some at 789 also). My question is this -- if today is UP early, and I were to decide by the deadline to sell, I fear that I might get burned by some profit-taking late in the day (after the recent rallying), which could bring the market back down through today's close. Does that make sense, and if so, would your opinion be that maybe it would it be better to wait it out today, and just see what happens? And then, maybe look at Thursday's market levels around the trade deadline to think about trying to sell?
Steve
I also think low 800s may be tough to crack. I am ready to sell and lock in some gains -- need to get to at least 790 to have gains on ALL my money (some purchased at 682, but some at 789 also). My question is this -- if today is UP early, and I were to decide by the deadline to sell, I fear that I might get burned by some profit-taking late in the day (after the recent rallying), which could bring the market back down through today's close. Does that make sense, and if so, would your opinion be that maybe it would it be better to wait it out today, and just see what happens? And then, maybe look at Thursday's market levels around the trade deadline to think about trying to sell?
Steve
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Steve, I don't see how me giving advice for today matters being you don't have internet at home
If I were you, I"d do this...get out if you think the market will go substantially lower, regardless of your last buy price. I took a 1.3% loss a couple weeks back in order to avoid a 10% drop, and I raked it in. The market moves in waves...I don't think 666 was the bottom, and certainly not the last time we will see 600's. Therefore, do not necessarily worry about March and IFT's.
Last edited:
steveg
Member
CP --
Oh, but I DO -- DSL, baby!
I hear what you are saying about the "don't worry about the loss" thing, but I'd like to avoid it if possible. Looks like the S&P is down a bit right now, about 4.5 15 minutes after market opening. Maybe with it down, there's some profit taking going on now, and thus maybe we could rally a bit later? Looks like the CPI numbers were pretty much in line with expectations; not sure of what else might move markets today...
Steve
Oh, but I DO -- DSL, baby!
I hear what you are saying about the "don't worry about the loss" thing, but I'd like to avoid it if possible. Looks like the S&P is down a bit right now, about 4.5 15 minutes after market opening. Maybe with it down, there's some profit taking going on now, and thus maybe we could rally a bit later? Looks like the CPI numbers were pretty much in line with expectations; not sure of what else might move markets today...
Steve
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Good to see you finally joined us in the 21st century! I think the market wll soon run out of reasons to buy and realize they built their house on sand.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
S&P bounced right off the 50 day SMA...almost to the point.
I don't know if it's time to get all giddy about this rally. Why did we rally? Because the FED is going to PRINT 1 TRILLION dollars and use it to "stabilize" the financial system. Hmmm...maybe I can likewise send the IRS monopoly money this April and they will be fine with that? (thanks to steveg for the analogy!).
Larger questions will soon be looming which could actually dwarf what we have seen so far.
First of all, inflation is only "good" if wages increase, and that is not happening and I do not believe it WILL happen....jobs are getting harder to find, thus, the salaries will if anything be BID LOWER due to competition for jobs.
4% mortgage rates...now that sounds good and dandy...but someone who cannot afford to be in a 6% home probably will at best be scraping by with a 4% mortgage rate. Given the relative long period of low rates already, I would surmise that the majority of those who CAN refinance HAVE already refinanced. Also, with home prices still DECLINING...anyone who is underwater will NOT refinance.
Refi's may create some profits for banks, but it will not help the economy that much IMO. What about the autos? What about increasing default rates on credit cards and car loans? The below rates are only going to get much worse.
http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSTRE52F75620090316
http://www.credit.com/news/credit-d...elinquency-rate-expected-to-rise-further.html
And why is the FED printing money and wanting to cause "inflation"? Because there is the threat of deflation. I have news for everyone, and maybe I only THINK i know what I"m talking about, but this does not seem complicated...
IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW MUCH MONEY YOU PRINT AND SHOVE INTO THE BANKS IF THERE IS NO ONE TO LEND TO, RIGHT?? THAT'S GREAT, LET PILES OF MONEY PILE UP IN THE VAULT. PEOPLE WHO HAVE LOST JOBS AND NEED A LOAN...CANNOT GET ONE. THOSE WHO CAN GET ONE...DO NOT WANT OR NEED ONE. THEREFORE, EXPECT A MASSIVE DECREASE IN EARNINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW QUARTERS...SENDING THE STOCK MARKET P/E RATIO HIGH...IN WHICH CASE STOCKS WILL HAVE TO COME DOWN IN PRICE TO COMPENSATE. IT IS A VICIOUS CYCLE...MORE RETAILERS WILL CLOSE DOWN...MORE JOB LOSSES...MORE LOAN DEFAULTS...ETC. THE BANKS WILL NEED MORE CAPITAL INJECTIONS. MEREDETH WHITNEY EVEN SAID 2009 COULD BE WORSE THAN 2008 FOR THE FINANCIALS. TIME WILL TELL, BUT DON'T BE SURPRISED WHEN THE EUPHORIA OVER MONOPOLY MONEY WEARS OFF AND WE CRASH AND BURN BEYOND BELIEF. THE PROBLEM OF THE TOXIC ASSETS HAS NOT BEEN FIXED...LOOK...WE ARE PRINTING TRILLIONS TO BUY MORTGAGE RATES DOWN...IN ADDITION TO EVERYTHING ELSE...AND WE HAVE NOT EVEN ADDRESSED THE FRICKEN TOXIC ASSETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't know if it's time to get all giddy about this rally. Why did we rally? Because the FED is going to PRINT 1 TRILLION dollars and use it to "stabilize" the financial system. Hmmm...maybe I can likewise send the IRS monopoly money this April and they will be fine with that? (thanks to steveg for the analogy!).
Larger questions will soon be looming which could actually dwarf what we have seen so far.
First of all, inflation is only "good" if wages increase, and that is not happening and I do not believe it WILL happen....jobs are getting harder to find, thus, the salaries will if anything be BID LOWER due to competition for jobs.
4% mortgage rates...now that sounds good and dandy...but someone who cannot afford to be in a 6% home probably will at best be scraping by with a 4% mortgage rate. Given the relative long period of low rates already, I would surmise that the majority of those who CAN refinance HAVE already refinanced. Also, with home prices still DECLINING...anyone who is underwater will NOT refinance.
Refi's may create some profits for banks, but it will not help the economy that much IMO. What about the autos? What about increasing default rates on credit cards and car loans? The below rates are only going to get much worse.
http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSTRE52F75620090316
http://www.credit.com/news/credit-d...elinquency-rate-expected-to-rise-further.html
And why is the FED printing money and wanting to cause "inflation"? Because there is the threat of deflation. I have news for everyone, and maybe I only THINK i know what I"m talking about, but this does not seem complicated...
IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW MUCH MONEY YOU PRINT AND SHOVE INTO THE BANKS IF THERE IS NO ONE TO LEND TO, RIGHT?? THAT'S GREAT, LET PILES OF MONEY PILE UP IN THE VAULT. PEOPLE WHO HAVE LOST JOBS AND NEED A LOAN...CANNOT GET ONE. THOSE WHO CAN GET ONE...DO NOT WANT OR NEED ONE. THEREFORE, EXPECT A MASSIVE DECREASE IN EARNINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW QUARTERS...SENDING THE STOCK MARKET P/E RATIO HIGH...IN WHICH CASE STOCKS WILL HAVE TO COME DOWN IN PRICE TO COMPENSATE. IT IS A VICIOUS CYCLE...MORE RETAILERS WILL CLOSE DOWN...MORE JOB LOSSES...MORE LOAN DEFAULTS...ETC. THE BANKS WILL NEED MORE CAPITAL INJECTIONS. MEREDETH WHITNEY EVEN SAID 2009 COULD BE WORSE THAN 2008 FOR THE FINANCIALS. TIME WILL TELL, BUT DON'T BE SURPRISED WHEN THE EUPHORIA OVER MONOPOLY MONEY WEARS OFF AND WE CRASH AND BURN BEYOND BELIEF. THE PROBLEM OF THE TOXIC ASSETS HAS NOT BEEN FIXED...LOOK...WE ARE PRINTING TRILLIONS TO BUY MORTGAGE RATES DOWN...IN ADDITION TO EVERYTHING ELSE...AND WE HAVE NOT EVEN ADDRESSED THE FRICKEN TOXIC ASSETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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