Corepuncher's Account Talk

[steveg]

Hey CP --

I'm surprised -- I was thinking that 741 or so S&P might be the top of this little rally, but we blew right through that today. I'm in an interesting spot -- I'm 50/50 like you are now, but remember I bought 33% into C at 789, and another 17% in at 682. I'm thinking that selling just over 800 (if we can get there) would let me lock in some profits. I still think we've got some more room to drop after this little rally. Problem is, I have one move left this month -- which means if I sell to lock in profits, I'm stuck in G the rest of the month. I need to think about what to do...any thoughts?

Steve

 

[Corepuncher]

Hey CP --

I'm surprised -- I was thinking that 741 or so S&P might be the top of this little rally, but we blew right through that today. I'm in an interesting spot -- I'm 50/50 like you are now, but remember I bought 33% into C at 789, and another 17% in at 682. I'm thinking that selling just over 800 (if we can get there) would let me lock in some profits. I still think we've got some more room to drop after this little rally. Problem is, I have one move left this month -- which means if I sell to lock in profits, I'm stuck in G the rest of the month. I need to think about what to do...any thoughts?

Steve

800 would be a 20% rally from out devilish bottom of 666.

Yes, 741 was blown through. Now, it gets tricky. Technically I like the previous tech levels of 780ish and 805. I suggest scaling out as you approach those goals. Remember, based on expected earnings (high end $60 for S&P) and past market bottom PE's (10-12), that gives us a fair value range of 600-720. We are above that. Now take into account estimates of 40-50$ earnings...says 400-600 on the S&P. 1st quarter earnings will start soon...I would be out that entire time.

Here is the stock matching output last 2 days. Very few matches showing up. For today's run, the matches are from July 2002. There is much indecision at this point...yesterdays run (3/11) showed the next 2 weeks up (based only on 1 match mind you), while today it changed the matching dates and now it says down next 5 days on average, then two weeks of up. That would actually fit with my conceptual model of us having a 50% pullback soon, followed by a continuation of the rally. Also, the 4 week average for both today and yesterday STILL end up green...with the latest up about 4%. If you add 4% to 750, you get 780....right at an important tech level. I'll probably start scaling out near 780, and may keep 20% in for a possible run above 800.

Yesterday below.....

 

[steveg]

Tell me more about this "conceptual model" you are working with. You said your conceptual model has a 50% pullback -- what did you mean by that?

And when do we start getting first quarter earnings? Early April?

Steve

 

[Corepuncher]

Tell me more about this "conceptual model" you are working with. You said your conceptual model has a 50% pullback -- what did you mean by that?

And when do we start getting first quarter earnings? Early April?

Steve

By conceptual model I mean that typically there is a 50% pullback of the rally before it resumes.

I think Alcoa usually starts off the earnings cycle, early April.

 

[DCguy]

I'm back to 100%G cob. I think this is just another bear market rally.

 

[DCguy]

this market's up, down, up, down, up ..

 

[Steadygain]

Your CHART confirms a RALLY - as opposed to a BOUNCE

Pull backs are insignificant in light of projected GAINS

You're doing GREAT CP - and now your chart is getting awards.

 

[Corepuncher]

Just a prediction...I think 740 will hold today. I think there are enough people that will try and buy the midday dip. maybe even close up today if we are lucky. In any event, I'm not going to sell yet. The longer we go sideways, the more confidence people will get and the rally can then continue, but beware...just at the point when it seems everyone is getting sucked in, the bottom will fall out, and it could happen fast and furious!

The bear lives!

 

[WorkFE]

I agree CP, I think we will be mostly flat today (Guess). This thing is a trap door and it knows exactly how much weight it needs to feed the bear. I pulled back just a bit today (Preservation). Of course I am in big enough for my liking.
40G, 20C, 20S, 20I COB

 

[turbo23dog]

My choice is to ride this out a few more days too. I'm just trying to keep from using an IFT that would have me locked into only safety moves till April 1st. I am in agreement with others who believe we'll be up and down next several days and more buying opportunities will present themselves.

 

[nsurf9]

The 2nd unstoppable wave (foreclosures and unemployment) is quickly approaching. And, the recently hyped, but unfinished "unmovable wall" (of our money) is likely not going to be timely or enough to stop the wave. Should I continue to help and build? ... or run like heck?

I may play in the surf and hype for a little while, but, I know what's in the wave.

My bet is still on the 2nd wave. nsurf9

 

[steveg]

Just a prediction...I think 740 will hold today. I think there are enough people that will try and buy the midday dip. maybe even close up today if we are lucky.

Nice call, CP!

Steve

 

[Corepuncher]

Dang, I was going to buy FAZ this morning at 35, and it ends up going to 40! Geesh. I'm moving slow with this trading...kinda watching and learning first before I make big bets.

Af for TSP, I'm waiting fo 780 ish. Sell off late today expected, after all we went up so far so fast. Watch out for massive short squeeze. I'll just wait for the market to top out, then do short ETF's.

 

[turbo23dog]

The SP has been heading due south since about 1:45pm.

The high for the day was 774 near 1:00pm. Its 3:30 now and we are back to the morning open of 758, a loss 16 points. Did someone in the gov have a speaking appearance this afternoon?

 

[mojo]

Dang, I was going to buy FAZ this morning at 35, and it ends up going to 40! Geesh. I'm moving slow with this trading...kinda watching and learning first before I make big bets.

Af for TSP, I'm waiting fo 780 ish. Sell off late today expected, after all we went up so far so fast. Watch out for massive short squeeze. I'll just wait for the market to top out, then do short ETF's.

Did you make a killing this afternoon (short ETFs 780 ish) ? Hope so

 

[Corepuncher]

Did you make a killing this afternoon (short ETFs 780 ish) ? Hope so

I was watching FAZ and SDS for a possible buy. I never did buy either.

 

[justbizness45]

I bought Citi this morning @ 1.95. Saw it up 33% today and couldn't get online at work to sell!!! Darn NMCI Closed up 16% and now I can't sell until opening tomorrow. What a pain, I need to give up my day job so I can trade and make money!!:nuts:

 

[tsptalk]

What a pain, I need to give up my day job so I can trade and make money!!:nuts:

Now you have your priorities straight!

 

[Rod]

I bought Citi this morning @ 1.95. Saw it up 33% today and couldn't get online at work to sell!!! Darn NMCI Closed up 16% and now I can't sell until opening tomorrow. What a pain, I need to give up my day job so I can trade and make money!!:nuts:

I'm having a BLAST with ( C ) too!

I bought it at 1.30 on 10 Mar.

What can I say... I'm up 79% so far!:nuts:

Beats the frick'n TSP with its measly 2 IFTs a month...:toung:

 

[steveg]

Hey, CP --

What's your deal? Where do you come up with this stuff?

Sell off late today expected, after all we went up so far so fast.

You were RIGHT AGAIN! You da MAN!

Steve