Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

Nice pick on the 3/10 rally. I'm consider gutting my TSP of all I can borrow out of it, and invest it elsewhere.

That would be fine but you have to pay it back which sucks!

 

[Steadygain]

Corepuncher,
I need to head home so I'm putting you in charge.

G Funders are taking over the TOP 10 - I want them out by the time I get in tomorrow morning - and I expect your efforts for the #1 SPOT to continue. Best of luck my friend and very good job moving more to high risk.

 

[Gumby]

That would be fine but you have to pay it back which sucks!

That would be nice if BHO would stimulate us by letting TSPers make a tax free one-time withdrawl.

Barclays probably couldn't make the margin call.:nuts:

 

[mojo]

That would be fine but you have to pay it back which sucks!

Say you make 100k a year and your maxing your TSP at 16.5k(about $1375 monthly) and you have 100k saved in your TSP.

If you took out a maximum 50% loan of 50k over 5 years at 2.75. Your monthly payment would be about $890. You continue to put in 5% TSP contribution( about $416 monthly) to get the maximum match of 5%.

890 + 416 = $1306 monthly

And you have 50k to invest as you want.

 

[Corepuncher]

Corepuncher,
I need to head home so I'm putting you in charge.

G Funders are taking over the TOP 10 - I want them out by the time I get in tomorrow morning - and I expect your efforts for the #1 SPOT to continue. Best of luck my friend and very good job moving more to high risk.

7.25 % in one day...good job Steady! You can't beat that! Or can you?? :worried:

It's amazing how 1 or 2 good days can totally change how you feel...almost forgetting the market ills. I think we should give this thing a few days to run and see what happens. I'll scale out after another 2-3% gain.

 

[Corepuncher]

I have a theory. With such a scary bear market, and talk of S&P < 500, what would make it actually go there?

How about a rebound that looks good on volume and breadth, say...a 2-3 day rally, that totally and utterly gets reversed? What do you think would happen, if we rally 15-20% and then it sells off totally? I think it would cause a major panic.

Be ready for it. I'll let this thing run a bit more. My target is 730's...at least to get most back into G. I do not trust this market and it is way too early for "the bottom" to be put in. Hoping for the 1-2 punch rally...will sell tomorrow if it happens. Also ahead of Thursdays highly touted "mark to market" meeting. Guess what that will result in? DISAPPOINTMENT AS ALWAYS!!!!

 

[350zCommTech]

Be ready for it. I'll let this thing run a bit more. My target is 730's...at least to get most back into G. I do not trust this market and it is way too early for "the bottom" to be put in. Hoping for the 1-2 punch rally...will sell tomorrow if it happens. Also ahead of Thursdays highly touted "mark to market" meeting. Guess what that will result in? DISAPPOINTMENT AS ALWAYS!!!!

Well, I think we just got a big sell signal tonight. I heard that Cramer, on his show tonight, pumped BAC. He gave it a target of $12 I believe. Cramer works for the pigmen. His picks have been terrible for a reason. They're designed to rape the masses.

I'll be on my toes tomorrow, but this has me thinking seriously about going to G.

 

[Corepuncher]

Man, 14 more trading days until April...I really don't want to get all out. I guess I'll wait to see how this mark to market thing irons out. I'm not very hopeful. We will know much more about the direction of this market by the end of this week.

 

[350zCommTech]

Man, 14 more trading days until April...I really don't want to get all out. I guess I'll wait to see how this mark to market thing irons out. I'm not very hopeful. We will know much more about the direction of this market by the end of this week.

I know what you mean. I want to get out and avoid any pullback, but I won't be able to get back in until next month. I can see another plunge followed by an end of the month rally. This sucks.

 

[Rod]

I'll be on my toes tomorrow, but this has me thinking seriously about going to G.

I wouldn't care if the market is positive now.

If I were in your position (#1), I would head to (G) to lock in those nice gains from yesterday. Unless, of course, you have no more trades for Mar.

 

[poolman]

i know what you mean. I want to get out and avoid any pullback, but i won't be able to get back in until next month. I can see another plunge followed by an end of the month rally. This sucks.

yes it does

 

[Steadygain]

Man, 14 more trading days until April...I really don't want to get all out. I guess I'll wait to see how this mark to market thing irons out. I'm not very hopeful. We will know much more about the direction of this market by the end of this week.

The latest from the FED is it will remain in place - but I think it's way more general sentiment pushing the Markets and not the M to M.

If we have a good day tomorrow I hope you lock it in.

 

[Corepuncher]

We hit 731 early in the day, which was right into that gap on the chart. That would have been good enough for my initial target to sell half, but we gradually sold off during the day. Lets see if we can't end the week strong.

http://www.rallymonkey.com/video/kenindex.swf

 

[Corepuncher]

After some more review, I feel that 780-800 (more likely 780 I think) will be the ceiling, assuming we can get there.

Today's intraday high: 732, near the "gap" made on 3/2.
Nov. low = 741
20 day SMA = 750 (slight descend)

Tracking Poll: 741 most likely, followed by 729. However, we've already surpassed 729 on an intraday basis...so, those who guessed 729 are wrong.

If the DOW was to hit the psychological 8000 mark, where will the S&P be?

832. Not sure that is likely though. It WOULD equal a 25% rally from the bottom, which is a common threshold for this bear market and previous bear market rallies to hit.

Rally from bottom targets:

10%= 733
15%= 766
20%= 799
25%= 833

Now, what about support? This number is a little more up for grabs...but I have to believe it is 700. A break below that and fire up the toaster. In a way, I sorta think a close below 720 THIS WEEK will result in a break of 700 NEXT WEEK, andn thus, toast. So, lets keep at least sideways movement Thu and Fri. Watch for buying on dips...if that stops, then get out. I was impressed with the Tue rally, as well as the way we came back strong into the close on wed after selling from the beginning.

 

[Guest2]

I love your style and analysis. In fact, I always have !

 

[Steadygain]

After some more review, I feel that 780-800 (more likely 780 I think) will be the ceiling, assuming we can get there.

Today's intraday high: 732, near the "gap" made on 3/2.
Nov. low = 741
20 day SMA = 750 (slight descend)

Tracking Poll: 741 most likely, followed by 729. However, we've already surpassed 729 on an intraday basis...so, those who guessed 729 are wrong.

If the DOW was to hit the psychological 8000 mark, where will the S&P be?

832. Not sure that is likely though. It WOULD equal a 25% rally from the bottom, which is a common threshold for this bear market and previous bear market rallies to hit.

Rally from bottom targets:

10%= 733
15%= 766
20%= 799
25%= 833

Now, what about support? This number is a little more up for grabs...but I have to believe it is 700. A break below that and fire up the toaster. In a way, I sorta think a close below 720 THIS WEEK will result in a break of 700 NEXT WEEK, andn thus, toast. So, lets keep at least sideways movement Thu and Fri. Watch for buying on dips...if that stops, then get out. I was impressed with the Tue rally, as well as the way we came back strong into the close on wed after selling from the beginning.

Thanks a million for all your VITAL INPUT

I'm going to all the MOST SOLID PLAYERS and asking for them to share things to help out the others.

WE ARE DOING GREAT - and I'd like to see as many as possible take advantage of this rally.

THIS IS ABOUT EXACTLY WHAT I WAS LOOKING FOR - 832

25% RALLY at this point is REALISTIC - though very few would ever believe it in light of 1 and 2/09.

Would you tell us why you're so BULLISH? - as I'm sure you have some very solid reasons!

 

[Corepuncher]

Thanks a million for all your VITAL INPUT

I'm going to all the MOST SOLID PLAYERS and asking for them to share things to help out the others.

WE ARE DOING GREAT - and I'd like to see as many as possible take advantage of this rally.

THIS IS ABOUT EXACTLY WHAT I WAS LOOKING FOR - 832

25% RALLY at this point is REALISTIC - though very few would ever believe it in light of 1 and 2/09.

Would you tell us why you're so BULLISH? - as I'm sure you have some very solid reasons!

I would not say I'm all out bullish, just bear market bullish

I sold 30% of my C fund today for a nice gain. Now 50G 50C. I know we could run higher and I will now only enjoy half the gains, but, I am up and there is more downside risk, IMO. While we have been rallying, Gold is quietly creeping back up and the IRX yield is falling.

If you had a glass half full outlook, then using 60$ earnings for S&P and a min 12 multiple, that is 720 and we are already above that. Worst case scenario, we bottom with a 10X and 40-50 earnings...you do the math.

 

[Steadygain]

I would not say I'm all out bullish, just bear market bullish

I sold 30% of my C fund today for a nice gain. Now 50G 50C. I know we could run higher and I will now only enjoy half the gains, but, I am up and there is more downside risk, IMO. While we have been rallying, Gold is quietly creeping back up and the IRX yield is falling.

If you had a glass half full outlook, then using 60$ earnings for S&P and a min 12 multiple, that is 720 and we are already above that. Worst case scenario, we bottom with a 10X and 40-50 earnings...you do the math.

Thanks CP

Yeah I noticed Gold heading back up - but I'm cool with that.

The downside risk is undeniable - and we're bound to TANK to even lower LOWS in the months ahead

But this Rally is more than your typical bounce

I'd previously voted for the 741 - but I think we'll hit well above 800 before this is done.

Going 50/50 is SMART - very smart - will still take you a lot further

My hope is this RALLY will take you and others way over 10%

maybe even 20% before we LOCK IT ALL IN

Then the BEAR is totally screwed - even when new lows are hit.


Anyway thanks again,
Steady

 

[Corepuncher]

Uhh, what just happened to the bond market? Looks as if someone just bought a CRAPLOAD of bonds!

 

[Birchtree]

I bet that would be our masked beauty Malyla - she's a bond vigilante.