Corepuncher's Account Talk

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Corepuncher said:
The 1265 level held, once again. May test 1300 soon.

In a way I hope we go down Thu and Fri, so I can buy more at a lower price and then sell once we try to break 1300 again. Highly uncertain though...which is why I only went in 50%. At any rate, I bought in 20+ S&P points lower than where I last sold.
Click to expand...

Yea this 1265-1300 range bound market is getting very boring. Somedays we cover the whole range, other times it may take a week or so.

I'm still waiting for a break down to the 1225 level.

Jeff
 
Im nervous just having 50% in...but may look to buy more but only for a small pop. Today is down, but tomorrow has the potential to break either up or down. I'm gonna wait until tomorrow and see what happens (i think...)

Updated Tracker COB 9/3/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +8.98%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 50C 50G
Tracker Rank: 3
Tentative Next Move: Buy at or below 1260, sell > 1280
----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Ok...I've been waffling but have decided to fill my veins with ice-water and double down...100C.

What makes this all the more risky is I'm going against my "lower bollinger band penetration" idea...but only for a VERY SHORT TERM PLAY. I'm hoping I can get a bounce off the 50% I buy today for a small profit. Many times, we bounce back to the 20 SMA immediately after penetrating the BBAND, THEN we start going down.

The dollar is up strong again today, and it looks like oil continues to slide.
 
I read the ITFs of the Day - as much as the Posts - and feel their message is the deepest and most meaningful.

Here I have to be careful because I don't want to sound critical:

Heres14U went 100% G - thinking the rally is over.

For the ones convinced the 20% Drop is happening now - that's a very smart move.

You went 100% C Fund - thinking today is an excellent opportunity.

I'm with you :) - this is a super day for getting in. The Markets are not showing any real evidence of "FALLING" - and will simply bounce back and forth until the real rally takes place.

Was this your last IFT (or your first)?
 
Corepuncher said:
Ok...I've been waffling but have decided to fill my veins with ice-water and double down...100C.

What makes this all the more risky is I'm going against my "lower bollinger band penetration" idea...but only for a VERY SHORT TERM PLAY. I'm hoping I can get a bounce off the 50% I buy today for a small profit. Many times, we bounce back to the 20 SMA immediately after penetrating the BBAND, THEN we start going down.

The dollar is up strong again today, and it looks like oil continues to slide.
Click to expand...

I'm watching the S Fund right now it is about $17.95 - $18.00 thoughts - i also think today may be a good day to get in but then tomorrow we could go lower.
 
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I think that even if tomorrows data is bad, today is already pricing that in. I also believe there is a butt-load of people waiting on the sidelines for a good buy in point. Everyone wants 1200-1220, well, then it may never occur (at least short term).

I chose C over S because financials have shown relative strength as of late. C has been down LESS than S when we fall. Top 500 companies...I feel there is less risk if we turn down. Retailers may bounce again if oil continues down.

STILL....I am doing this only for a short term play. I'm convinced that October earnings will bring bad news (again) for financials...and THAT will lead the market to < 1200. :)

This is risky business but again, if we close 1250ish today that means my average buy in point was about 3% lower than my last sell, so I win no matter what.
 
Corepuncher said:
I think that even if tomorrows data is bad, today is already pricing that in. I also believe there is a butt-load of people waiting on the sidelines for a good buy in point. Everyone wants 1200-1220, well, then it may never occur (at least short term).

I chose C over S because financials have shown relative strength as of late. C has been down LESS than S when we fall. Top 500 companies...I feel there is less risk if we turn down. Retailers may bounce again if oil continues down.

STILL....I am doing this only for a short term play. I'm convinced that October earnings will bring bad news (again) for financials...and THAT will lead the market to < 1200. :)

This is risky business but again, if we close 1250ish today that means my average buy in point was about 3% lower than my last sell, so I win no matter what.
Click to expand...


Good Luck THX for the info. I didn't move out of G Fund but may move to 75 C Fund .... 25 S Fund tomorrow.
 
Steadygain said:
You went 100% C Fund - thinking today is an excellent opportunity.

I'm with you :) - this is a super day for getting in. The Markets are not showing any real evidence of "FALLING" - and will simply bounce back and forth until the real rally takes place.

Was this your last IFT (or your first)?
Click to expand...


Thanks for your words of encouragement. I hope you are right and we get a rally. It was my last move...I almost always buy stocks in 2 moves. I wish I had gone 100%F for my first move like I was going to..that is until NSURF talked me out of it :D:D:D J/k!
 
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wE MAY SEE atc jEFF'S 1225 TODAY. Today may have been the day to get in or do you guys see further collapse in the next few days.
Thanks, Dave
 
Davehop21 said:
wE MAY SEE atc jEFF'S 1225 TODAY. Today may have been the day to get in or do you guys see further collapse in the next few days.
Thanks, Dave
Click to expand...

We are at one of the last of the strong technical support levels, after that, it's not much of a fall to 1200.

But today, the technicals are being ignored...
 
CP, it looks like your had something about the F fund - because its now the only game in town. It may not last long or garner much in total, but a good start. Commodities, real estate and stocks are all closed down for repair. Yea, I know . . . bonds are cheap, but they're paying.

F could have been a good entry, then in to one (or mix) of the equities for just a short while.

This market is scary. Oil and credit (subprime) predators are taking out too many consumers. But, with fewer consumers there will be fewer predators. Even OPEC, no especially OPEC, must have its customers - $60 a barrel oil anyone?
 
Just a reminder (and yes, we sliced right through the lower band today....)

big.chart


Be prepared! :)


low_bollinger.jpg
 
I'll take the 11.8% one.

My 1225 entry point is just around the corner. However, after today's action I may have to adjust my plan and only jump in with one foot. Tom's comments this morning http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html spoke of a possible plan.

If one does decide to jump in at the 1200 area, he/she must be ready to exit at no more than a 2% loss. That exit point would be around 1175. The upside potential would be around 1300 or about 8.5% gain.
 
What is wrong with me?? I was gonna wait to see the Jobs report Friday but panicked and jumped in too early. Oh well, can't win 'em all. I bought 40 S&P points lower than my last sell, I should be glad. Now we get to see if Cramers "bottom" holds. SURELY it will, since he is the chosen one??


Updated Tracker COB 9/4/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +7.49%
Today: -1.49%
Current Allocation: 100C
Tracker Rank: 5
Tentative Next Move: Pray the bottom holds
----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Now that I am done freaking out, I have come back to my senses and will stick to my "un-emotional" numbers:

Plan: Wait until next week, sell target = 1260. That has been a key level for a long time, and it may become Resistance.

This IFT limit sure complicates things. It would be fine to sell but I can't buy again until fricken October!
 
Corepuncher said:
Now that I am done freaking out, I have come back to my senses and will stick to my "un-emotional" numbers:

Plan: Wait until next week, sell target = 1260. That has been a key level for a long time, and it may become Resistance.

This IFT limit sure complicates things. It would be fine to sell but I can't buy again until fricken October!
Click to expand...

This is where the FRTIB has cost us $Billions. You may have not made that move yesterday or just a partial move but this is a plan set up for failure and it appears they want it that way.

They claim they were looking out for all those people who didn't make IFT transfers and we should use the L Funds. Well we all complained wrote letters and no one gave a *uck. We even offered to pay for our IFT's but it's clear they see our funds lost billions and they won't change a thing because that would be admitting failure.

Barclays & the FRTIB & Congress are all to blame here. We predicted this would fail and it already has. You might see a rally today who knows but it is as hard as hell trying to make a cent here. :mad:
 
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