Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

Major reversal going on as of 11am CDT...and it is supported by a simultaneous flow of money OUT of bonds/Crashing AGG. Lets close in the green today and confirm a bottom! Thank goodness!

 

[Gumby]

This is where the FRTIB has cost us $Billions. You may have not made that move yesterday or just a partial move but this is a plan set up for failure and it appears they want it that way.

They claim they were looking out for all those people who didn't make IFT transfers and we should use the L Funds. Well we all complained wrote letters and no one gave a *uck. We even offered to pay for our IFT's but it's clear they see our funds lost billions and they won't change a thing because that would be admitting failure.

Barclays & the FRTIB & Congress are all to blame here. We predicted this would fail and it already has. You might see a rally today who knows but it is as hard as hell trying to make a cent here.

I agree.....For some reason the FRTIB does not care about TSP "Investors". Admitting failure .....not going to happen

 

[Steadygain]

Major reversal going on as of 11am CDT...and it is supported by a simultaneous flow of money OUT of bonds/Crashing AGG. Lets close in the green today and confirm a bottom! Thank goodness!

WOW!! Maybe you're right and that's what I've been saying... so my move to G will guanantee a huge blast off.

 

[JTH]

Now that I am done freaking out, I have come back to my senses and will stick to my "un-emotional" numbers:

Glad to see I'm not the only one who freaks out :cheesy:

IFT 75 S today, I belive we have good short to imtermediate support here and most of the bad news is baked in. Timing is everything, and I hope we get our mini rally from here.

 

[Show-me]

I'm in the freak'n club too. Misery loves company.

 

[luv2read]

Big boys are back in town...dumped commodities Wednesday and stocks yesterday and this morning...all into cash/bonds....now watch the reversal back into stocks...AGG dropping like a rock. Or is it another trap? Muwhahaha...

 

[JTH]

Big boys are back in town...dumped commodities Wednesday and stocks yesterday and this morning...all into cash/bonds....now watch the reversal back into stocks...AGG dropping like a rock. Or is it another trap? Muwhahaha...

Gee I wonder how many people got stopped out over the last few days? Like you said the big boys dropped out, and now perhaps they are going to start bargain hunting....

 

[luv2read]

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=178789&posted=1#post178789

 

[Corepuncher]

We're gonna not only produce a nice "kangaroo" tail candlestick for the day, but, we are also going to close at or above the 1243 level...which is a 61.8% FIB retracement of the last rally! Downtrend NOT confirmed today! Yesssssssssss!:cheesy:

 

[nasa1974]

I agree.....For some reason the FRTIB does not care about TSP "Investors". Admitting failure .....not going to happen

No! The FRTIB doesn't care for the active traders. The educated traders. It muddies the water. It jeopardizes the investment firm. The FRTIB wants blind followers not leaders. If we start to show that we know too much and can make money, more may follow. If that happens it becomes more difficult to control. Also since a majority of us are retired or can be retired in 10 years or less. The less profitable we are the smaller the loss is to the TSP funds as we start to draw our retirement funds.


May the force be with us.

 

[Eldritch Flatus]

"The less profitable we are the smaller the loss is to the TSP funds as we start to draw our retirement funds.""
Makes me wonder how much is really in the "funds". Hmmmmmmmm?

 

[luv2read]

Starting to sound like Social Security "trust" fund?

 

[Show-me]

We're gonna not only produce a nice "kangaroo" tail candlestick for the day, but, we are also going to close at or above the 1243 level...which is a 61.8% FIB retracement of the last rally! Downtrend NOT confirmed today! Yesssssssssss!:cheesy:

Yes, yes, yes! When I looked at the new and the jobs report came in bad I was scared at first and then the futures tank and all I was thinking was "kangaroo tail". That was the only reason I did not bail out today.

 

[Braveheart]

AP
Report: Gov't may soon back Fannie, Freddie
Friday September 5, 7:18 pm ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer WSJ says gov't may soon back troubled mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Shares of mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tumbled in after-hours trading Friday following a report by The Wall Street Journal that the government may soon step in to provide a financial boost to the two companies.
Details of the plan, which could be announced as early as this weekend, were still being hammered out but are expected to include executive changes at both companies, the Journal said on its Web site.
The report came after stock markets closed, but in after-hours trading Fannie Mae's shares plunged $1.70, or 24 percent to $5.34. Freddie Mac's shares fell 95 cents, or almost 19 percent to $4.15.
The news also followed a report by the Mortgage Bankers Association that more than 4 million American homeowners with a mortgage, a record 9 percent, were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of June.
That confirmed what investors saw in Fannie and Freddie's recent financial results: trouble in the mortgage market has shifted to homeowners who had solid credit but took out exotic loans with little or no proof of their income and assets.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the nation's largest buyers and backers of mortgages, lost a combined $3.1 billion between April and June. Half of their credit losses came from these types of risky loans with ballooning monthly payments.
While both companies say they have enough resources to withstand the losses, many investors believe their financial cushions could wither away as defaults and foreclosures mount.
Still, many in Washington and on Wall Street hadn't expected Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to intervene unless the companies had trouble issuing debt to fund their operations.
This summer, Congress passed a plan to provide unlimited government loans to Fannie and Freddie and to purchase stock in the two companies if needed.
Critics say the open-ended nature of the rescue package could expose taxpayers to billions of dollars of potential losses.
Supporters, however, argue the Bush administration had little choice but to support Fannie and Freddie, which together hold or guarantee $5 trillion in mortgages -- almost half the nation's total.
Representatives of Fannie and Freddie declined to comment on the government assistance plan.
Treasury spokeswoman Brookly McLaughlin said officials "have been in regular communications" with Fannie and Freddie, but refused to comment on the story saying, "We are not going to comment on rumors."
Treasury recently signed a contract with Morgan Stanley to investigate the financial position of Fannie and Freddie, with help from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the new regulatory body created by Congress to oversee the mortgage giants.
Asked if an announcement could come soon, McLaughlin said, "We are making progress in the work with Morgan Stanley and FHFA." A spokeswoman for the FHFA also declined to comment.
Concern has been growing that a government rescue of Fannie and Freddie could not only wipe out common stockholders, but also be costly for scores of investment, banking and insurance companies that hold billions of dollars in their preferred shares
The two companies had nearly $36 billion in preferred shares outstanding as of June 30, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. AP Business Writers Martin Crutsinger and Jeannine Aversa contributed to this report.

 

[Braveheart]

AP
Report: Gov't may soon back Fannie, Freddie
Friday September 5, 7:18 pm ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer WSJ says gov't may soon back troubled mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Shares of mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tumbled in after-hours trading Friday following a report by The Wall Street Journal that the government may soon step in to provide a financial boost to the two companies.
Details of the plan, which could be announced as early as this weekend, were still being hammered out but are expected to include executive changes at both companies, the Journal said on its Web site.
The report came after stock markets closed, but in after-hours trading Fannie Mae's shares plunged $1.70, or 24 percent to $5.34. Freddie Mac's shares fell 95 cents, or almost 19 percent to $4.15.
The news also followed a report by the Mortgage Bankers Association that more than 4 million American homeowners with a mortgage, a record 9 percent, were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of June.
That confirmed what investors saw in Fannie and Freddie's recent financial results: trouble in the mortgage market has shifted to homeowners who had solid credit but took out exotic loans with little or no proof of their income and assets.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the nation's largest buyers and backers of mortgages, lost a combined $3.1 billion between April and June. Half of their credit losses came from these types of risky loans with ballooning monthly payments.
While both companies say they have enough resources to withstand the losses, many investors believe their financial cushions could wither away as defaults and foreclosures mount.
Still, many in Washington and on Wall Street hadn't expected Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to intervene unless the companies had trouble issuing debt to fund their operations.
This summer, Congress passed a plan to provide unlimited government loans to Fannie and Freddie and to purchase stock in the two companies if needed.
Critics say the open-ended nature of the rescue package could expose taxpayers to billions of dollars of potential losses.
Supporters, however, argue the Bush administration had little choice but to support Fannie and Freddie, which together hold or guarantee $5 trillion in mortgages -- almost half the nation's total.
Representatives of Fannie and Freddie declined to comment on the government assistance plan.
Treasury spokeswoman Brookly McLaughlin said officials "have been in regular communications" with Fannie and Freddie, but refused to comment on the story saying, "We are not going to comment on rumors."
Treasury recently signed a contract with Morgan Stanley to investigate the financial position of Fannie and Freddie, with help from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the new regulatory body created by Congress to oversee the mortgage giants.
Asked if an announcement could come soon, McLaughlin said, "We are making progress in the work with Morgan Stanley and FHFA." A spokeswoman for the FHFA also declined to comment.
Concern has been growing that a government rescue of Fannie and Freddie could not only wipe out common stockholders, but also be costly for scores of investment, banking and insurance companies that hold billions of dollars in their preferred shares
The two companies had nearly $36 billion in preferred shares outstanding as of June 30, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. AP Business Writers Martin Crutsinger and Jeannine Aversa contributed to this report.

How will the market react to this ?????? Once the Govt. takes it over those stocks are worthless. Every friggin Friday another Bank or firm goes under and it is announced after the close. The way this market has been acting all the big boys knew it. I wonder will this impact the F Fund as well somehow I think it will and those who knew something was going down go out at 11:00 AM EST.

 

[Guest2]

How will the market react to this ?????? Once the Govt. takes it over those stocks are worthless. Every friggin Friday another Bank or firm goes under and it is announced after the close. The way this market has been acting all the big boys knew it. I wonder will this impact the F Fund as well somehow I think it will and those who knew something was going down go out at 11:00 AM EST.

The stock holders and recent speculators will cut their losses and
run. The Corporate Bond Holders will get their due (I think thats how
it works). Bad News After-Hours on Friday is expected. Just as Good
News is released just before a Negative Economic Report is announced.
Its all a game of checks and balances to them. We write the Checks
and they raise their Balances! :toung:

 

[Braveheart]

The stock holders and recent speculators will cut their losses and
run. The Corporate Bond Holders will get their due (I think thats how
it works). Bad News After-Hours on Friday is expected. Just as Good
News is released just before a Negative Economic Report is announced.
Its all a game of checks and balances to them. We write the Checks
and they raise their Balances! :toung:

"EXPECT THE FED TO CUT INTEREST RATES BY .50 MAYBE AS EARLY AS MONDAY" 9/8/08 with a BAILOUT of Freddie & Fannie. Either way the cut will be this month and prevent a housing market crash with a stock market crash. Home values will drop either way.

 

[Corepuncher]

Hey check out the system...lowest it's ever been. Also, we penetrated that lower Bollinger band...we will be lucky to get a bounce to the 20 SMA, IMO. That is, unless there is some crazy FED bailout but, that would only be a temporary bandaid. Looking to bail but am greedy so I want to get out with a profit

From KD's blog:

1. There is every reason to believe that Treasury Bond Yields will shoot higher in the coming weeks and months. If this happens it will "take back" any benefit from this so-called "bailout" immediately, and worse, it will hike borrowing costs across the economy - not just in housing - when we are already in a credit crunch. The result of such an event could be disastrous and it is what I have been warning about for months.

This is scary stuff folks. A major crash could occur. I hope those guys at Fast Money are right, calling for a 3 day rally next week. I almost feel like since we "tested" a bottom, that we need to retest the "top" which is 1314 or so. I'm not sure I have the guts to stay in that long. The fact that we cannot buy until October makes this more difficult. But look at it this way, if we crash 500 pts on the S&P next week, chances are, it won't rebound any time soon.

Updated Tracker COB 9/5/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +7.94%
Today: +0.45%
Current Allocation: 100C
Tracker Rank: 4
Tentative Next Move: Sell somewhat above my break even of 1256
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

My gut is telling me that anyone in F should GET OUT NOW!

 

[nnuut]

I just don't know what the reaction will be? Is saving Freddie and Fannie a bad thing? Will our interest rates go back up to 16%, or will they go down? I really don't know. but am happy in the "G" until the dust settles.