Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

Gustav is trying to get reorganized again. It is barely a Cat 3 at this time. Could solidify a bit tonight, we'll see. My forecast of CAT 5 went bust. I about threw up when I saw how poor the satellite presentation was this morning.

No 30 foot storm surge this time. I'll be surprised if it is over 15-20'.

As of 750pm CDT, the central dense overcast is becoming a bit more symmentrical, but no "eye" really showing up. I wouldn't be surprised to see a nice eye show up rapidly overnight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

 

[justbizness45]

Is it my imagination or is Hanna turning northeast away from the gulf?

 

[Corepuncher]

Is it my imagination or is Hanna turning northeast away from the gulf?

Yep, that is the forecast. But then we have TD # 9 !

 

[nasa1974]

Here is the latest on Hannah

 

[nasa1974]

CP, Thanks for the updates. Potentially another coming off the Africa coast. Right now my youngest daughter is in Hilton Head. Planning on leaving to drive back to Ohio, Friday morning. Hope she stay ahead of the rain.:worried:

 

[Show-me]

Wow, what a weather week it will be.

 

[Corepuncher]

So Gustav wasn't all it was cracked up to be. It DID force an interruption in production....and that WILL draw down inventories. If we can get more storms to enter the Gulf, then it may have a cumulative effect.

Thinking ahead to this week...I don't know what could possibly lead a market rally to new (recent) highs. The NASDAQ took a huge hit Friday...that will leave a mark. Oil is down, so the Energy sector may be down. Financials? Got a 4 day rally going for XLF. Unless you believe that chart is a 45 day bullish flag in the making...I think financials will roll over really soon and dunk the rest of the market.

Rangebound 1260-1300 ish. 1260 level may be supportive for a while. Currently planning on buying in at some point and trying to make a quick 1% if possible. More if the herd allows. I can't imagine the economic data is going to be very good this week...and there is A LOT:

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

So, I will rely on that data to help bring the market down. Come to papa!

 

[nasa1974]

What is going to make this week interesting is that there should be more volume than what we have seen in the past three weeks. So do we jump off the lilly pad this week or do we what to see what happens. Oh! the trials of only two IFT's.


May the force be with us.

 

[Corepuncher]

I like Mr. Denninger this morning:

"This much is certain - when they bring Larry Kudlow out on CNBC in the morning to ask a floor trader "give me a hot stock", the hype machine is in full-on panic mode.

If you're trapped long, this is a good place to slide quietly toward the door. I made my money for the day overnight and unfortunately, as I wasn't up all night, I didn't get the opportunity to switch-hit when the pumping started, and I sure as hell am not going to chase this thing here.
If my read on the "count" in the broad markets is correct, this current move northward may be the last time you see "13" as the first two digits on the SPX for a long time."

So the week for us in G got started off on the wrong foot. That is ok. There is a stock torpedo called the jobs report coming. I am getting increasingly interested in the F fund. Also, watch what happens if this rally today fails. Should be a big leg down then.

 

[Corepuncher]

I like how the AGG/F fund had a hard reversal off the 20 SMA today. Also lower oil = lower inflation. Throw in a possible bad jobs report and continued financial anxiety, and F may do well. Just not sure I want to use up 1 of my IFT's on F. It would basically be a decision to stay in F instead of G. Hmm...

 

[nsurf9]

I wouldn't use up one of my legs (IFTs) in the F fund in this market, unless I was convinced it the equities would flounder for a couple of weeks. My take on the outlook makes me think, it may. But, it could equally skyrocket.

 

[nsurf9]

CP, none of the storms currently in some form accross the Atlantic appear to have a path predicted to enter the Gulf of Mexico. I didn't get to that info before the noon deadline, else I would be more inclined to go into the equities today.

 

[justbizness45]

CP, none of the storms currently in some form accross the Atlantic appear to have a path predicted to enter the Gulf of Mexico. I didn't get to that info before the noon deadline, else I would be more inclined to go into the equities today.

I don't trust the financials, as seen today good news with oil was a short failed spike. The economic data and financials are going to drive the market, just my opinion. I don't trust it and think we are going to see more of a leg down. I think I am holding in G for a day or two more at least.

 

[Corepuncher]

Getting a lot of matches from August 2001 and May 2002 (yuck!). I hope to build some code that will allow me to find which combination of matching parameters results in the highest correlation between stock market movement and the predicting system. When will I have it done? Who knows, it takes a lot of time and I don't have tons of free time.

I have a third method as well, and interestingly, all three methods show weeks 3-4 as down (that would be mid to late September).

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 9/2/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +8.97%
Today: +0.02%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 3
Tentative Next Move: Buy at or below 1260, sell > 1280
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[alevin]

I already started watching Ike today. Gus missed panhandle, hope Ike does too.

 

[Steadygain]

2008 YTD Return: +8.97%
Today: +0.02%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 3


You've done outstanding!!

If I were in your shoes - would probably be in G as well. You can afford to wait for the rally. It won't hurt you to miss the initial 3 or 4%.

 

[Braveheart]

2008 YTD Return: +8.97%
Today: +0.02%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 3


You've done outstanding!!

If I were in your shoes - would probably be in G as well. You can afford to wait for the rally. It won't hurt you to miss the initial 3 or 4%.

Huge volume on S Fund at 9:40 EST highest seen in a while. Dropped 2 points right after.

 

[Corepuncher]

50C 50G COB Today. Hopefully we will close near my first target of 1260-1265. If we happen to rally at the end of the day then it could carry into Thur, in which case I will sell for a gain.

If we continue lower, I will add to my position. Just looking to scalp a small %. That 1260-1265 seems like good support right now...but not sure how long it can hold.

 

[Corepuncher]

The 1265 level held, once again. May test 1300 soon.

In a way I hope we go down Thu and Fri, so I can buy more at a lower price and then sell once we try to break 1300 again. Highly uncertain though...which is why I only went in 50%. At any rate, I bought in 20+ S&P points lower than where I last sold.