Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Be cautious of false prophets (profits) ! :nuts:
PUN WAS ABSOLUTELY INTENSIONAL

 

[nsurf9]

CP, The extended debt you cite is, in my opinion, the cliff that awaits. I'm not sure if the economy will step too far, over, out, or too quickly - but it lurks.

I know several households where higher expense to live is causing great difficult. The few recent difficulities and collapses in banks and mortgages may be also be toes-over-the-side already. On the other hand, perhaps the markets will scale a mountain of near disaster.

In any case, in the words of Warren Buffet, "when the tide goes out, you know who's been skinning dipping."

Oh, yea, SB - n i c e Bear.

 

[Guest2]

CP, The extended debt you cite is, in my opinion, the cliff that awaits. I'm not sure if the economy will step too far, over, out, or too quickly - but it lurks.

I know several households where higher expense to live is causing great difficult. The few recent difficulities and collapses in banks and mortgages may be also be toes-over-the-side already. On the other hand, perhaps the markets will scale a mountain of near disaster.

In any case, in the words of Warren Buffet, "when the tide goes out, you know who's been skinning dipping."

Oh, yea, SB - n i c e Bear.

Thanks Nsurf ! The bear is looking in a mirror and sometimes likes to flirt with himself. I'm still looking for a Happy Bull when the time is right ! :toung:

 

[Corepuncher]

Updated Tracker COB 8/26/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +8.90%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 2
Tentative Next Move: Wait for < 1240 to buy after 9/1/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------

​

 

[Corepuncher]

I still like the F fund. The chart looks bullish in the short term and may reach 101.25 on the AGG before finding strong resistance. That's good for another 1%.

 

[ATCJeff]

Hey Core,

Are you a member of ST?

 

[Corepuncher]

Hey Core,

Are you a member of ST?

What is ST? Whatever it is, I guess I am not a member.

Updated Tracker COB 8/27/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +8.91%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 2
Tentative Next Move: Wait for < 1240 to buy after 9/1/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[ATCJeff]

Stormtrack

Stormtrack.org

Jeff

 

[Corepuncher]

Stormtrack

Stormtrack.org

Jeff

OH...a different subject! Naw, not really "a member", I browse it sometimes. I'm on CFDG (AKA the "country club").

Every do any hurricane chasing?? I was in Ivan and Rita. Rita was great, because we found a large 5 story parking garage in Beuamont TX, right next to a hospital which had generator power/lights. It was pretty cool when the eyewall came through. Tough to get out of that town with all the flooded roads (not to mention national guard waving guns at us!). If you do go, make sure to take LOTS of extra gas. On the way back there was no gas until Waco and I was on E! Also, beware of any evauations, they can really plug up the highway.

 

[Corepuncher]

What I just heard was about the dumbest thing ever. On CNBC they were interviewing a guy at the NYMEX, and he said something like "crude is going down because Gustav weakening combined with nat gas news was very bearish". HUH?? Are they really that stupid? I mean, WHEN (not if) Gustav regains hurricane strength (major in a few days) and moves straight into the gulf, is he saying that gas will then RISE AGAIN?? How idiotic!

The storm is currently navigating Haiti/Jamaica/Cuba. Anyone who knows anything knows that the storm will weaken when it interacts with land. What's scary is he is probably in charge of a lot of money and he's letting a typical weakening of an otherwise powerful storm make him sell??

Anyway, as BIRCHTREE always says, the market looks forward. Therefore today's pump on LAST quarters GDP is ridiculous. It's mostly from Exports and that will decrease with strengthening dollar. Consumer going forward next few quarters is strapped. Holiday season? Worst in years. Too bad for those companies whose ENTIRE YEAR is based on the holiday season. Ouch. Oh and maybe oil will be 150 again too boot.

 

[Silverbird]

What I just heard was about the dumbest thing ever. On CNBC they were interviewing a guy at the NYMEX, and he said something like "crude is going down because Gustav weakening combined with nat gas news was very bearish". HUH?? Are they really that stupid? I mean, WHEN (not if) Gustav regains hurricane strength (major in a few days) and moves straight into the gulf, is he saying that gas will then RISE AGAIN?? How idiotic!

Anyway, as BIRCHTREE always says, the market looks forward. Therefore today's pump on LAST quarters GDP is ridiculous. It's mostly from Exports and that will decrease with strengthening dollar. Consumer going forward next few quarters is strapped. Holiday season? Worst in years. Too bad for those companies whose ENTIRE YEAR is based on the holiday season. Ouch. Oh and maybe oil will be 150 again too boot.

That NYMEX guy sounds like he'll make you a day late and a dollar short!

 

[fabijo]

The bear is looking in a mirror and sometimes likes to flirt with himself.

:worried:

 

[Birchtree]

Would he see a 350Z look alike?

 

[Steadygain]

What I just heard was about the dumbest thing ever... he saying that gas will then RISE AGAIN?? How idiotic!

With (or without any storm) - gas going from over $4 a gallon back down to roughly $3 - will undoubtedly be a shortlived event. The price is guaranteed to go back up and nothing could possibly prevent it.

Am considering buying a 500 gallon container and filling it in the near future. Then another year or two - I can post about filling my cars for $3.15 (when everyone else is paying $4.50).

This is "smoke and mirrows" - plain and simple. When the Economy takes off - with subsequent rate hikes... GAS is going up and staying up.

 

[Corepuncher]

The latest models indicate that perhaps TWO major hurricanes may affect the offshore platforms...Gustav then Hannah. In fact, the ECMWF suggests the second one could be stronger (but it's a LONG ways away and could miss).

http://sca.uqam.ca/models/ecmwf_amer_12/cep12_9panel.gif

Behind Hannah, there are other tropical waves. At any rate, the Gulf region will be under the gun from storms for quite some time. I believe that with time, this will lend support to crude prices and we'll be back in the 120's in no time.

Congrats on those who caught the recent pop...I see ya'll have gone into "G", where you will find solace.

Updated Tracker COB 8/28/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +8.92%
Today: +0.01%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 3
Tentative Next Move: Wait for < 1240 to buy after 9/1/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Corepuncher]

Everyone enjoy the weekend. I have a feeling we may see some fireworks next week. Employment report is key. I can't imagine it being very good given 400K+ initial claims EVERY WEEK! I still feel that oil has found a short term base and we will go back into the 120s at least Watch 1240-1260 S&P.

Updated Tracker COB 8/29/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +8.95%
Today: +0.03%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 3
Tentative Next Move: Wait for < 1240 to buy after 9/1/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Braveheart]

Everyone enjoy the weekend. I have a feeling we may see some fireworks next week. Employment report is key. I can't imagine it being very good given 400K+ initial claims EVERY WEEK! I still feel that oil has found a short term base and we will go back into the 120s at least Watch 1240-1260 S&P.

Updated Tracker COB 8/29/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2008 YTD Return: +8.95%
Today: +0.03%
Current Allocation: 100G
Tracker Rank: 3
Tentative Next Move: Wait for < 1240 to buy after 9/1/08
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Oil will be $150+ Sunday/Monday before the Hurricane hits. Imagine the damage to the rigs. Once it hits Oil may hit $175+ This market will drop 1000 points next week if it remains as strong and on this track. I am 100% G Fund but this could really be the final straw. Gas will be $5 or $6 per gallon and the reserves will need to be used. It is the "PERFECT STORM" and could takes years to recover.

 

[Corepuncher]

Oil will be $150+ Sunday/Monday before the Hurricane hits. Imagine the damage to the rigs. Once it hits Oil may hit $175+ This market will drop 1000 points next week if it remains as strong and on this track. I am 100% G Fund but this could really be the final straw. Gas will be $5 or $6 per gallon and the reserves will need to be used. It is the "PERFECT STORM" and could takes years to recover.

Wow Braveheart, that is quite a statement! Honestly, I really don't know how much hurricanes damage the rigs and such. But what I have known for several days is that the consensus forecast track and intensity of this storm have not changed and I have no idea why some of those traders have been dragging their feet. I'm sure there will be a spike in oil prices, especially once the "herd" sees the whites of it's eyes. Gustav will likely peak in the central gulf as a Cat 5 before weakening somewhat (but it should at least maintain a 3 rating). Katrina was really only a 3 or so when it hit New Orleans, but, since it was a 5 out in the Gulf, the storm surge generated with this storm was already developed, and acted as if a 5 at landfall (mainly MS where there was a record storm surge over 30 feet tall!). If this storm makes landfall as a 130+ mph hurricane, it will be as strong as or stronger then Katrina. Given the upper ridge over the southeast, the storm motion will slow once it approaches the northern gulf, and some models even indicate it could bend NW near landfall...which could actually maximize it's exposure to offshore platforms.

Tropical systems typically have huge bursts of convection overnight. Overnight tonight, Gustav will be clear of Cuba. Therefore, I predict that when you wake up in the morning, Gustav will be a CAT 5 hurricane.

After Gustav, there is Hanna (but it may stay over FL), and then ANOTHER hurricane is forecast to at least hit FL if not cross W back into the Gulf once again! The bottom line: No end in sight with these tropical systems coming in...the pattern has developed. Should keep upward pressure on oil prices.

http://sca.uqam.ca/models/ecmwf_amer_12/cep12_9panel.gif

One way or another, I think we will see some more direction to this market this week. I assume volume will increase after labor day and with dell posting crappy earnings, tech as a leader may peter. Financials were up Friday...but yeah, like that's gonna last!

Market is range-bound. Since our initial rally out of the bottom (when we instantly hit 1292 intraday)...it has been 27 trading days now that we have essentially gone sideways. That is over a month. I don't call that consolidation, I call it confusion. One day Consumer disc. or Energy will be up, the next day, they will both we down equally hard and Financials and Tech will be up. They are simply playing a trading game and I feel the end is near and we will break one way or the other.

Really, how much upside near term can their POSSIBLY be? We've been dancing with this 1280 level for an awfully long time. Time to break down 1260, then 1240, then retest the 1200 low. Maybe support initially there, but if the bear comes out again, any bounce off of 1200 (maybe to 1230-1240) could then be eaten up quickly. I'm not going to get caught with my pants down so going to be very quick and nimble if playing the market.

 

[luv2read]

Dont worry about the rigs...worry about the REFINERIES. Bush has already said he'll pump the SPR dry to keep the refineries supplied...but if the refineries go down we're done.:worried:

 

[Braveheart]

Wow Braveheart, that is quite a statement! Honestly, I really don't know how much hurricanes damage the rigs and such. But what I have known for several days is that the consensus forecast track and intensity of this storm have not changed and I have no idea why some of those traders have been dragging their feet. I'm sure there will be a spike in oil prices, especially once the "herd" sees the whites of it's eyes. Gustav will likely peak in the central gulf as a Cat 5 before weakening somewhat (but it should at least maintain a 3 rating). Katrina was really only a 3 or so when it hit New Orleans, but, since it was a 5 out in the Gulf, the storm surge generated with this storm was already developed, and acted as if a 5 at landfall (mainly MS where there was a record storm surge over 30 feet tall!). If this storm makes landfall as a 130+ mph hurricane, it will be as strong as or stronger then Katrina. Given the upper ridge over the southeast, the storm motion will slow once it approaches the northern gulf, and some models even indicate it could bend NW near landfall...which could actually maximize it's exposure to offshore platforms.

Tropical systems typically have huge bursts of convection overnight. Overnight tonight, Gustav will be clear of Cuba. Therefore, I predict that when you wake up in the morning, Gustav will be a CAT 5 hurricane.

After Gustav, there is Hanna (but it may stay over FL), and then ANOTHER hurricane is forecast to at least hit FL if not cross W back into the Gulf once again! The bottom line: No end in sight with these tropical systems coming in...the pattern has developed. Should keep upward pressure on oil prices.

http://sca.uqam.ca/models/ecmwf_amer_12/cep12_9panel.gif

One way or another, I think we will see some more direction to this market this week. I assume volume will increase after labor day and with dell posting crappy earnings, tech as a leader may peter. Financials were up Friday...but yeah, like that's gonna last!

Market is range-bound. Since our initial rally out of the bottom (when we instantly hit 1292 intraday)...it has been 27 trading days now that we have essentially gone sideways. That is over a month. I don't call that consolidation, I call it confusion. One day Consumer disc. or Energy will be up, the next day, they will both we down equally hard and Financials and Tech will be up. They are simply playing a trading game and I feel the end is near and we will break one way or the other.

Really, how much upside near term can their POSSIBLY be? We've been dancing with this 1280 level for an awfully long time. Time to break down 1260, then 1240, then retest the 1200 low. Maybe support initially there, but if the bear comes out again, any bounce off of 1200 (maybe to 1230-1240) could then be eaten up quickly. I'm not going to get caught with my pants down so going to be very quick and nimble if playing the market.

NOTE THIS REPORT WAS BASED UPON A CAT 2 OR CAT 3..... THE SURGE WILL BE UP TO 30 FEET & CAT 4+ is now expected.

Jeff Rubin, chief economist at investment bank CIBC World Markets, said that record could be shattered if Gustav seriously disrupts offshore energy production.
In 2005, pump prices jumped from slightly more than $2 a gallon to above $3 after Katrina and Hurricane Rita destroyed more than 100 oil platforms and damaged several refineries.
"The price consequences could be even worse this time," Rubin said in a report, noting that oil and gasoline inventories are lower than when Katrina and Rita hit. "


Latest damage run based on BAMD